HighlandFP

Eight major points regarding evolution appear in the 1798 Essay:[4]

1. subsistence severely limits population-level
2. when the means of subsistence increases, population increases
3. population-pressures stimulate increases in productivity
4. increases in productivity stimulate further population-growth
5. since this productivity can not keep up with the potential of population growth for long, population requires strong checks to keep it in line with carrying-capacity
6. individual cost/benefit decisions regarding sex, work, and children determine the expansion or contraction of population and production
7. checks will come into operation as population exceeds subsistence-level
8. the nature of these checks will have significant effect on the rest of the sociocultural system — Malthus points specifically to misery, vice, and poverty



This is why Craig Smith and I brought the theories of Dr. Julian Simon into the narrative of "Black Gold Stranglehold." Julian Simon was a professor of business administration at the University of Maryland until his death in 1998. Simon had studied the history of energy resources as far back as the 1865, when the British became scared that they were running out of the coal that fueled the industrial revolution and provided the energy for the establishment of the British colonial empire. Simon argued that "peak-production" theories were Malthusian hoaxes that would inevitably occur whenever human beings began to utilize a natural resource extensively. The first "running out of oil" fear that Simon could document in the United States was traceable to 1885 when the U.S. Geological Survey announced that there was "little or no chance" to find oil in California.

Simon demonstrated that "peak-production" scares about natural resources always end up hoaxes. The empirical evidence never confirms the resource-exhaustion hypothesis. Instead, when cheap and readily available supplies of any natural resource are used heavily, the price goes up enough to stimulate technological advances and the exploration of energy alternatives, such that the original resource itself never actually exhausts. When did Julian Simon think we would run out of oil? His answer was "Never!"

It seems impossible to keep using energy and still never begin to run out – that is, never reach a point of increasing scarcity. But the long-run trends in energy prices, together with the explanatory theory of induced innovation, promise continually decreasing scarcity and cost – just the opposite of popular opinion.

A clear indication that important innovations are underway, following Julian Simon's analysis, is when "peak-production" advocates win center stage such that their "running-out-of" hoax becomes commonly accepted conventional wisdom. At that point, oil and natural-gas prices will have risen to the point where viable industry innovations begin to emerge. We have never been at a point in the history of utilizing hydrocarbon fuels when entrepreneurial business activities were more interesting than they are now – not just in fuels that are alternatives to hydrocarbons, but even in the oil and natural gas industries themselves.

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