mrabody

Dear All South East members, Below is the information for the South East MEP hustings for all South East UKIP Members.

The full list of 14 candidates selected to proceed to the next stage is (in alphabetical order) as follows:-

Harry ALDRIDGE
Marta ANDREASON
Drew BELOBABA
Chris BROWNE
Rob BURBERRY
Nigel FARAGE
Ray FINCH
Steve HARRIS
Mazhar MANZOOR
Andrew MONCRIEFF
Marc MONTGOMERY
Mark STROUD
Philip VANDER ELST
Victor WEBB

The venues for the hustings will be as follows:

Wed. 16 July Lynx Gymnastics Centre, 70 Rabans Close,
Aylesbury, Bucks., HP19 8RS
7.00pm for 7.30pm start
Chairman: Chris Adams

Sat. 26 July Conference Chamber, Winchester Guildhall,
Broadway, Winchester, Hants., SO23 9GH
1.30pm for 2.00pm start
Chairman: David Samuel

Thur. 31 July Royal Wells Hotel, Mount Ephraim,
Tunbridge Well, Kent, TN4 8BE
7.00pm for 7.30pm start
Chairman: Greg Knopp

Hope to see you there.


David Samuel Camps

Michael Heaver

Bloody hell, you've got at least 2 Young Independence guys on that list. I know for a fact that Harry Aldridge and Rob Burberry would do UKIP proud.

Geoffrey Collier

The Marta Andeason who is listed as a candidate can't be UKIP's treasurer, because she spells her name Marta Andreasen. What does the one on the list do?

Alex McKee

A typo, perhaps?
Well done Harry!

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Anthony Butcher

What are the chances of anyone beating Farage in the popular vote?

It's a sucky list to be on, and anyone other than Farage stands a minimal chance of being elected, barring a small miracle (since it would take something like 24% of the vote).

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douglas denny

Not so. If the European election here in the SE goes at least as well as before there will be two UKIP candidates elected. (Ashley Mote was the second). In fact we missed getting a third by a very small margin indeed.
I know, I was there at the count in Didcot. I was the UKIP SE election agent.

Also, the Chichester count was 26% for UKIP in the EU election, whereas the 'normal' anti-EU vote at three general elections was around 5 to 6%.
That is the difference with the electorate at EU elections. They know they can vote for other than their normal tribal voting instincts without harming the local MP they want.

If we do slightly better than before (which I fully expect) then we shall have three UKIP MEPs in the SE.

DED.
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HM

What gives you this impression? From what I can see we've had a fair few hammerings recently at the polls.

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douglas denny

Many things. It would take a whole diatribe and essay to say why. The GBP might have a combined average mental age of around ten, but they are not totally stupid altogether (though I sometimes wonder) - they do over a long time period absorb impressions from politics which changes their voting patterns. The Lisbon Treaty; immigration; rules and regulations impinging on their ordinary lives and being associated with the EU; general negative issues with the EU and foreigners telling us what we should be doing (clips of Barosso on TV every now and then for example ...etc etc).

There are those on this forum who have great faith in polls. The polls say the % of people who dislike the EU is in the order of 80%; and those who actually want out in the high 60s%. this is not reflected in actual voting by a long chalk. Why? - because of tribal voting instincts.
In EU elections those tribal instincts of group behaviour (for the standard main parties Lib Lab Con) are not there at all or are very weak. Hence the difference here in Chichester in the actual voting figures achieved which I quoted.
EU elections are our territory where we cannot do other than well. This time all augurs for everything going in our direction. Ergo we should do well and probably better than last time.

DED.
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ryansoton

Well done HArry for getting onto the list.

Your do UKIP proud.

Anthony Butcher

I think that this is very wishful thinking. UKIP got 19.5% of the vote last time. Labour had just 13.7% and the Lib Dems 15.3%. I can see the Labour vote dropping to 7% and maybe the Lib Dems to 12%. That leaves 10% floating vote. I fully expect half of UKIP's existing vote to go back to the Tories to attack labour, which will leave it struggling to pick up enough votes for a seat.

All speculation of course, but I think that it will be a challenge for UKIP even to get that first MEP. UKIP hasn't had a good electoral result in two years in anything other than a few scattered council wards. There is no latent mass support for UKIP out there. The press hate UKIP. The majority of memorable MSM publicity that the party has had for the last four years (little though there has been) has been about corruption and arguments. Party membership is lower than it was before the last EU elections I believe. There won't be a Kilroy effect this time. The party isn't a fresh alternative anymore. It hasn't launched a single campaign of any note. It doesn't have anywhere near the financial clout that it had last time for advertising. It handed the position of opposition to the Lisbon Treaty over to the Tories. The quality of leaflets hasn't improved since 2004. UKIP's only MP voted in favour of 42 Day detention without trial. The Tories have started to publish their MEP expenses, outmanoeuvring UKIP in terms of transparency.The Kilroy split has permanently damaged the brand. The focus on immigration has reinforced the BNP-lite image. UKIP's financial plans are beyond a joke (£30+ billion increase in spending and rising with every policy release). I am sure that I could go on.

Oh, and I expect that the Tom Wise issue and some others (I am sure they will dig something up) will surface in the media inconveniently close to the elections.

What exactly are you basing your optimism on? From what I have seen it is largely that the public regard the EU issue as important during EU elections. That of course makes the assumption that they will look to UKIP as the solution - and that is the premise that I no longer think is true. The Tories took the lead on the Lisbon Treaty and cleaning up their MEPs. The BNP are going to win the anti-immigration vote.

I am still waiting for the imaginative, inspiring campaign from UKIP that will pull it all together and grab people's interest. It could happen, and you might be proved right, but I haven't seen so much as a glimmer yet.

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If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled!
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