News: Southeast MEP shortlist.

Bob FM · 05-07-2008, 07:32 AM

Anthony you seem to missing the one key factor here and that is Cameron's statement that the Tories will honour the Reform Treaty if ratified. If that is shouted from the hill tops it will increase UKIP's vote note decrease it. I still await any form of denial from HMG about the Pound being sacrificed to the Euro with a campaign in the winter. If that does happen this strengthen UKIP's position even further because Cameron will be on the back foot again. There are many in his party who believe ditching the pound would help our economy.

mrabody · 05-07-2008, 09:20 AM

Anthony,

You make some valid points. However there are other factors to consider. First of all, at least in some regions, particularly the Southeast, UKIP is better organized than it was in 2004. In Surrey, most branches are regularly contesting local elections with varying degrees of success. In any event there is a pool of voters who will now vote for us in local elections. I don't see why they won't vote for us in the Euros.

There are moves afoot in Surrey, East Sussex, and West Sussex to strongly contest the County Council Elections next year. I believe Buckinghamshire already has many County Council candidates selected. If the Electoral commission moves the election date for those elections to match the Euros as seems likely, UKIP will get a lot more exposure than last time simply because we will have more candidates on the ground.

Also, don't forget that 2004 was a watershed for many voters in relation to how they view Euro elections. A friend of mine who is an ex-Tory and now UKIPPer who still has many tory friends says he is regularly approached by Tories who tell him that while they will vote Tory in parliamentary elections, they vote UKIP in Euros. This suggests that many voters consider the Euro elections to be a contest where they need not vote for the party line.

Also, whilst the Tories are riding high in the polls, they have yet to translate that support into hard votes, something they may struggle to do. Many Tories are still uneasy with Cameron, and many more are very angry about how their MEP selection process was rigged to favour Europhile incumbents over the more anti-EU newcomers who would likely have been selected if party members had their say. It is quite possible that in the circumstances a lot of Tories activists will sit on their hands.

This isn't responding to anything you have said, but I think I'll address it now. There are plenty of BNPers on this forum who are confidently predicting that UKIP will finish behind the BNP in the Euros. THis is unlikely given the lack of funding and the small size of the BNP. The BNP does well in local elections, particularly by-elections by virtue of the fact that it is highly organized and can mobilize supporters to concentrate their efforts on those areas where it is strong. However as I've said before, it appears that the party has bumped up against the limits that its small size and lack of funds have set. Despite all their spin to the contrary, the BNP did not have a successful result in this years local elections - in a year where Labour was going to get a drubbing they should have been able to win 40 or more council seats - they barely got a quarter of that. How well can they do in a year where all the English counties and many unitary authorities are up for election when their resources will already be thinly spread, before you even begin to factor in the financial drain a Euro election campaign will place on the party.

Some might say the same applies to UKIP, but I would point out that at least in the Southeast, our members tend to be better off financially than BNP supporters.

As I've said before, when (if?) UKIP gets it's act together and begins putting more effort and resources into contesting local elections, it will hurt the BNP simply because we are a bigger, better funded party.

prober · 05-07-2008, 09:41 AM

Ref Chichester 26% in 2004 ... very good. A good portion of that may well retained 2009. Much more important are the local authority count areas on record as having only 12 or 10 or less % for UKIP 2004. UKIP seems to have had no 5 year plan or strategy or action to focus on these areas as a priority by prioritising message etc at various local and other elections aimed at boosting the 2009 % to Chichester levels ...which would be essential if UKIP was serious about increasing it's No of MEPs.

Mikeuk · 05-07-2008, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher

What are the chances of anyone beating Farage in the popular vote?

It's a sucky list to be on, and anyone other than Farage stands a minimal chance of being elected, barring a small miracle (since it would take something like 24% of the vote).

Absolutely zilch!

prober · 05-07-2008, 09:55 AM

Hopefully at hustings we will find out which candidates promise to :-
Be totally transparant on £
Will not employ relatives without clear justification
Contribute substantially to the party
Use much of their large staff budget to buiding the party's UK capability
Take a leading role or shadow cabinet subject area to build UKIP as a domestic party
Wont go native
Has the energy to do what is needed over 5 years
Has the imagination to think outside the box in taking the cause forward
Will listen to the members
etc

Anthony Butcher · 05-07-2008, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob FM

Anthony you seem to missing the one key factor here and that is Cameron's statement that the Tories will honour the Reform Treaty if ratified. If that is shouted from the hill tops it will increase UKIP's vote note decrease it.

Again, there is the assumption that UKIP will pick up the votes.

I also think that smacking Labour down will far outweigh concerns about the EU, especially when the Tories start to make as many eurosceptic noises as they can (and I am sure they will).

These EU elections will take place before or at the same time as the General Election. It will be the first chance that the public has had to take a pop at Brown.

HULKMAN · 05-07-2008, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by prober

Hopefully at hustings we will find out which candidates promise to :-
Be totally transparant on £
Will not employ relatives without clear justification
Contribute substantially to the party
Use much of their large staff budget to buiding the party's UK capability
Take a leading role or shadow cabinet subject area to build UKIP as a domestic party
Wont go native
Has the energy to do what is needed over 5 years
Has the imagination to think outside the box in taking the cause forward
Will listen to the members
etc

good points to raise.

Anthony Butcher · 05-07-2008, 11:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrabody

First of all, at least in some regions, particularly the Southeast, UKIP is better organized than it was in 2004.

Indeed, and I hear many good things about Surrey in particular. But the South East is a very big area, and EU elections require a solid performance across the entire region.

As I said, I think that UKIP needs a major campaign to pull it off. As things stand the party is very slowly fading from the public consciousness. The lack of UKIP presence during the last few months should worry you. If UKIP can't make it into the media when the Lisbon Treaty is in all the papers, then it doesn't suggest that things will be much better for the EU elections.

HULKMAN · 05-07-2008, 11:41 AM

I think we will return to pre-2004 levels. All the dirty deals, corruption and fighting to get on the MEP lists will have been for nothing.

douglas denny · 05-07-2008, 12:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher

I think that this is very wishful thinking. UKIP got 19.5% of the vote last time. Labour had just 13.7% and the Lib Dems 15.3%. I can see the Labour vote dropping to 7% and maybe the Lib Dems to 12%. That leaves 10% floating vote. I fully expect half of UKIP's existing vote to go back to the Tories to attack labour, which will leave it struggling to pick up enough votes for a seat.

All speculation of course, but I think that it will be a challenge for UKIP even to get that first MEP. UKIP hasn't had a good electoral result in two years in anything other than a few scattered council wards. There is no latent mass support for UKIP out there. The press hate UKIP. The majority of memorable MSM publicity that the party has had for the last four years (little though there has been) has been about corruption and arguments. Party membership is lower than it was before the last EU elections I believe. There won't be a Kilroy effect this time. The party isn't a fresh alternative anymore. It hasn't launched a single campaign of any note. It doesn't have anywhere near the financial clout that it had last time for advertising. It handed the position of opposition to the Lisbon Treaty over to the Tories. The quality of leaflets hasn't improved since 2004. UKIP's only MP voted in favour of 42 Day detention without trial. The Tories have started to publish their MEP expenses, outmanoeuvring UKIP in terms of transparency.The Kilroy split has permanently damaged the brand. The focus on immigration has reinforced the BNP-lite image. UKIP's financial plans are beyond a joke (£30+ billion increase in spending and rising with every policy release). I am sure that I could go on.

Oh, and I expect that the Tom Wise issue and some others (I am sure they will dig something up) will surface in the media inconveniently close to the elections.

What exactly are you basing your optimism on? From what I have seen it is largely that the public regard the EU issue as important during EU elections. That of course makes the assumption that they will look to UKIP as the solution - and that is the premise that I no longer think is true. The Tories took the lead on the Lisbon Treaty and cleaning up their MEPs. The BNP are going to win the anti-immigration vote.

I am still waiting for the imaginative, inspiring campaign from UKIP that will pull it all together and grab people's interest. It could happen, and you might be proved right, but I haven't seen so much as a glimmer yet.

Anthony Butcher: What exactly are you basing your optimism on? .....

Anthony; I 'll tell you (and it's a secret, so don't tell anyone) ...... sheer cynicism ...and 40 years of observing the GBP.

You know already I respect your analyses of political matters, as you clearly think deeply about it and it shows ... however ..
....frankly you can think too deeply sometimes, and convince yourself your analysis is the right one. The trouble is, it is easy to forget that any model (which is what your speculations are) of the political system are just that - a model in your head; and that the system is so dynamic and fluid with so many parameters that all you can try to model is a very loose large-scale group behavioural pattern. i.e. the same kind of thing as polling figures - and they in turn although they are the only indicators available which are anything like objective or 'scientific', are a very poor model because the samples are so small and the variables so great.

I base my present optimism on observation of the GBP at voting times over 40 years. The first thing to note is that in spite of all the hysteria whipped-up at the 'big' elections, there are very few big changes and upsets in the system.
Broadly speaking, the vast majority of people always vote the same no matter what is happening in the real world of politics.
There is unbelievable inertia in the system. To shift political voting in the GBP is like trying to move the Earth in its orbit by jumping up and down.

You know this, and I know this, but it is easy to forget. It is the very simple and basic reason we are in the mess we are in with the EU; and the reason that although the polls show without any doubt that the vast majority of the people in the country are exceedingly unhappy with Britain being in the EU, they (the GBP: large-scale) never vote for the only party that will actually get them out!
All your dissection of what went before and what is likely near the election, and no Kilroy effect, and poor leaflets, and this and that ..... frankly counts (practically) for nought.

What will happen is: as we get within the few couple of days before the election; the public will wake-up out of its political coma with all the commotion going-on; they will see it is about the EU; their gut reaction will be disgust and irritation; they will vaguely recognise in the recesses of their minds that there is an anti-EU party (what's it called?? Duhh! Oh yes... UKIP or something isn't it?); they will say to themsleves .. "Duhhh! don't like the EU; wots our MP done about it? nuffin! Hmmm if I vote for this UKIP lot it won't harm (insert: Lab CON LIBDim) as its only that European cr@p! .. Yehh lets give em a go ...."

and that's that. UKIP gets 26% in Chichester instead of only 5% at general elections!

Easy Peasy.

DED.
-

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05-07-2008, 07:32 AM	#11 (permalink)
Bob FM Uber Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: South Marston Swindon Posts: 2,148	Anthony you seem to missing the one key factor here and that is Cameron's statement that the Tories will honour the Reform Treaty if ratified. If that is shouted from the hill tops it will increase UKIP's vote note decrease it. I still await any form of denial from HMG about the Pound being sacrificed to the Euro with a campaign in the winter. If that does happen this strengthen UKIP's position even further because Cameron will be on the back foot again. There are many in his party who believe ditching the pound would help our economy.

05-07-2008, 09:20 AM	#12 (permalink)
mrabody Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 597	Anthony, You make some valid points. However there are other factors to consider. First of all, at least in some regions, particularly the Southeast, UKIP is better organized than it was in 2004. In Surrey, most branches are regularly contesting local elections with varying degrees of success. In any event there is a pool of voters who will now vote for us in local elections. I don't see why they won't vote for us in the Euros. There are moves afoot in Surrey, East Sussex, and West Sussex to strongly contest the County Council Elections next year. I believe Buckinghamshire already has many County Council candidates selected. If the Electoral commission moves the election date for those elections to match the Euros as seems likely, UKIP will get a lot more exposure than last time simply because we will have more candidates on the ground. Also, don't forget that 2004 was a watershed for many voters in relation to how they view Euro elections. A friend of mine who is an ex-Tory and now UKIPPer who still has many tory friends says he is regularly approached by Tories who tell him that while they will vote Tory in parliamentary elections, they vote UKIP in Euros. This suggests that many voters consider the Euro elections to be a contest where they need not vote for the party line. Also, whilst the Tories are riding high in the polls, they have yet to translate that support into hard votes, something they may struggle to do. Many Tories are still uneasy with Cameron, and many more are very angry about how their MEP selection process was rigged to favour Europhile incumbents over the more anti-EU newcomers who would likely have been selected if party members had their say. It is quite possible that in the circumstances a lot of Tories activists will sit on their hands. This isn't responding to anything you have said, but I think I'll address it now. There are plenty of BNPers on this forum who are confidently predicting that UKIP will finish behind the BNP in the Euros. THis is unlikely given the lack of funding and the small size of the BNP. The BNP does well in local elections, particularly by-elections by virtue of the fact that it is highly organized and can mobilize supporters to concentrate their efforts on those areas where it is strong. However as I've said before, it appears that the party has bumped up against the limits that its small size and lack of funds have set. Despite all their spin to the contrary, the BNP did not have a successful result in this years local elections - in a year where Labour was going to get a drubbing they should have been able to win 40 or more council seats - they barely got a quarter of that. How well can they do in a year where all the English counties and many unitary authorities are up for election when their resources will already be thinly spread, before you even begin to factor in the financial drain a Euro election campaign will place on the party. Some might say the same applies to UKIP, but I would point out that at least in the Southeast, our members tend to be better off financially than BNP supporters. As I've said before, when (if?) UKIP gets it's act together and begins putting more effort and resources into contesting local elections, it will hurt the BNP simply because we are a bigger, better funded party.

05-07-2008, 09:41 AM	#13 (permalink)
prober Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 860	Ref Chichester 26% in 2004 ... very good. A good portion of that may well retained 2009. Much more important are the local authority count areas on record as having only 12 or 10 or less % for UKIP 2004. UKIP seems to have had no 5 year plan or strategy or action to focus on these areas as a priority by prioritising message etc at various local and other elections aimed at boosting the 2009 % to Chichester levels ...which would be essential if UKIP was serious about increasing it's No of MEPs.

05-07-2008, 09:55 AM	#15 (permalink)
prober Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 860	Hopefully at hustings we will find out which candidates promise to :- Be totally transparant on £ Will not employ relatives without clear justification Contribute substantially to the party Use much of their large staff budget to buiding the party's UK capability Take a leading role or shadow cabinet subject area to build UKIP as a domestic party Wont go native Has the energy to do what is needed over 5 years Has the imagination to think outside the box in taking the cause forward Will listen to the members etc

05-07-2008, 11:41 AM	#19 (permalink)
HULKMAN Junior Member Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 92	I think we will return to pre-2004 levels. All the dirty deals, corruption and fighting to get on the MEP lists will have been for nothing.