Britannist

UKIP has a national projected vote share of 1% in the latest opinion poll (the second to be published since the Crewe-Nantwich Parliamentary By-Election last month) according to the website of ComRes - the opinion polling organisation who conducted the opinion poll for today's edition of the Independent newspaper.

UKIP support is highest - at 2% - in the Wales/south-west of England and English midlands areas and in the 18 - 24 years old and 65 or over voting categories. UKIP support in the south-west of England part of the Wales/south-west of England area is probably at least 5%. The party holds two south-west of England seats in the EU 'Parliament'.

Britannist

More on the new opinion poll by ComRes in today's Independent at:

Liberal 'Democrats' down in new poll as Labour and Conservative gain

Milo

Let me first start by saying that I've been a member of UKIP since I was 13 (now 21) and I maybe standing at the next GE.

However these figures and many other polls I've seen in recent times are not very encouraging. After all the hard work members have put in over the years we still don't seem to be getting anywhere like we are constantly promised by the Leadership!

harryaldridge

People don;t yet make the connection between UKIP and local/national government. They still see us as the Europe party. It is linked to the same reality that people don;t yet make the EU connection in local/national government. All the time the two issues seem divorced from each other UKIP will always come beloe TOry/Labour/Lib-dem in domestic elections.

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mkpdavies

The MSM hate UKIP, that doesn't help.

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Labour, Lib Dems

BASILDON BOY

The full poll can be found here - you will need to download the file to view it:-

ComRes - Political Poll for The Independent 3 June 2008

douglas denny

Don't be fooled or depressed with the opinion polls from newspapers. They hate us and I am convinced from an ad hoc study of them for some years they are either wilfully inaccurate (let me put it plainly - they lie about us) or are just plain wrong.

Even the 'best' polls by the big newspapers only use a sample of about 1000 people - and that's if they are lucky. Sometimes it is only a few hundred. They use a lot of telephone cold-calling and use "weighted" sampling techniques to "even out" the regional and class/economic categories in the variations of people in the sample. In other words they are a "fix".

They give a fairly reasonable idea (but an idea only note) of the main parties voting possibilities, but are absolutely hopeless with the smaller parties because the sample is too small.

I have followed the 'Yougov' poll for many years now, by Anthony King - and I am convinced that poll and his comments (in the Telegraph) are directly biased against UKIP.
Not surprising as it is commissioned by the Torygraph!

None of them list UKIP as a separate entity; they could if they wished along with BNP Greens etc, but do not; they list all as "others".

Even when the "others" went for a while above the Lib Dims at a figure above 10%, max around 14% (and Lib Dims only abround 12% )they did not give a breakdown.
I know why - it would have been too embarrasing to include UKIP at around the probable 6% to 8% it was then at the time the EU constitution was in the news.

The "others" does include all small parties - BUT, UKIP is by far the biggest component of that and yet is never credited with a mention. Even at the last general election when UKIP was obtaining from around 2% to 5% in the constituencies, any mention of UKIP by the pollsters only said 1%. They lie. I know they lie.

The "others" level in the 'Yougov' poll was hovering around 2 to 3% for years, on from 1997, when the Referendum Party was around, and UKIP was at the beginning of parliamentary campaigning putting candidates into constituencies for that general election when UKIP obtained less than 1% overall.

By 2001 "others" was hovering around 4% to 5% and remained like that, again for some years on average, until just before the Euro elections when "others" went up to around 13 to 14% UKIP obtained 11 MEPs. Afterwards; "others" went down again to around 4% to 5% as before and stayed that way for the next general election. UKIP then obtained around 2 to 3% overall in the country. Disappointing for a lot of people, but nevertheless up on the previous general election.

Now the interesting thing is: since the EU constitution came into being and was thrust down the people's throats (and since clobbered but brought back in a new disguise) the "others" has been steadily climbing from the 4% or 5% which it kept at for years - to around 9 to 11% now depending on the poll. And it is staying that way.

So, do NOT be depressed. That "others" figure represents a proportion which is UKIP. The proportion (relative to the other smaller parties) is likely to be constant so that means our potential vote is definitely increasing substantially.

We shall see if I am right at the next election of course.

I fully expect us to wipe the floor with the other parties at the Euro elections. We shall then fall back as we did before to a lower overall percentage at the general election ...... but it will be much more overall percentage than at the last general election of that I am supremely confident. If I was a supporter of the other parties I should be very worried indeed how many seats will be lost due to UKIP standing.


DED.
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Earthling

You seem have a fair bit of optimism DED, I hope things turns out to be more than just that.

For now I suppose it is all eyes on Henley. With BNP standing it will be particularly interesting

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Earthling's Blog

Don't let EU rule Britannia! Vote UKIP and say NO to Brussels Bureaucracy.

eublues

Yougov polls do give UKIP as a separate option in the questioning and in the reports published on their website.

kernow

It will get better once it dawns on the electorate that our politicians don't govern Britain and that just about everything bad that's happening to our Country at the moment, stems from us being a member of the EU! I know it's difficult getting the truth to the people when our mainstream politicians and mainstream media are all in the pocket of the EU! But lets remember the Frank Sinatra song "High Hopes", when that "little Ole Ram, kept butting that Dam, Whoops there goes another million kilowatt dam!