Bett Nwar

The EU has yet to fully assimilate Rumania and Bulgaria. Both promised reforms of their legal structures. They were allowed to join despite the fact that they were incomplete. The Middle East and North Africa do not have parallel legal systems that could easily be absorbed and in many countries there are religious courts. Bribery of judges, lawyers and police is endemic. I for one would despair if the Eu moved toward links with the Maghreb countries. I definitely wouldn't want anything to do with Israel, which aspires to join the EU, until there was a final agreed and peaceful settlement of the Palestinian problem.

Gary

Anthony,

Although I have never been excited at our prospects in most elections, and have been quite embarrassed at some of the fantastic predictions made here and elsewhere about UKIP's prospects in elections, I feel the European elections are quite different. Since the last European elections, the public's mood has swung very strongly against the EU. It's no good saying "well look at our domestic results", because people still have the mindset that Westminster "is nothing to do with Europe".

This latest outrage against us has been on the cards for some time. However, I fear that things will get worse. The limit is to be set to a minimum of 30, it seems. Last Euro
elections, UKIP got 12 seats. Next year, with the EU's popularity in Britain
immeasurably worse, there is a very real possibility that UKIP will gain a
majority among the UK's MEPs. I don't think that this is pie-in-the-sky. People are really hacked off with Brown for lying about a vote and UKIP's profile has risen greatly since 2004. If this were to happen, then they could have a group of their own. Furthermore, I can't see how our very membership of the EU could survive a UKIP majority - a referendum on membership would be hard to avoid.

With that in mind, I think there is every
possibility that what we see here is the commission slowly preparing the
ground to simply outlaw withdrawalist parties.

Gary

Geoffrey Collier

Gary: We have a guaranteed right to, 'Domestic Sovereignty' under the United Nations Charter. If a party, which believes in that UN doctrine, is banned from the EU Parliament, irrespective of which country it is, that would be a violation of that Charter to which all EU countries are signatories. It is time that we started to give the EU Commission a few lessons in realpolitik. Is it being suggested, for example, that France, a Permanent Member of the UN, could be a party to those kind of prohibitions? Should that happen, the United Kindom must report France to the UN.

Anthony Butcher

The only point I would raise here is that you are assuming that UKIP will pick up the anti-EU vote. You may indeed be correct, but I expect the Tories to go to great lengths to prevent that happening. If they can make it about opposing Labour's position, then they may actually take votes away from UKIP. The reality that the Tories are pro-EU is irrelevant; all that matters is the public perception.

It will also be the first major election that the public have had to vote against the Labour party - don't underestimate how many votes the Tories will draw from that.

UKIP has an uphill struggle this time. Whereas last time they had the media storm surrounding RKS, they looked fresh and seemed to be offering something new on the political scene, this time they have none of that. What little publicity they have had has largely been negative, they don't have anyone famous to boost the party in the media (at the moment), and they have had four years of (for the most part) insignificant election results.

On top of that, they are now unpopular with the Times (and thus presumably the Sun), the News of the World, the Telegraph and the Guardian. I don't know what percentage of the voting population they cover, but presumably they hold some significant influence between them.

Thinking that UKIP might step into first place in the EU elections just because anti-EU sentiment is running high would be a mistake I think. UKIP will need to pull off some major PR work to make that happen. Judging by the way they launched the improved policy documents over the past few weeks, I wouldn't hold my breath; media relations isn't UKIP's strong point. That doesn't mean to say it can't happen, or won't, but can you point me in the direction of anything that UKIP has done particularly successfully in the past couple of years to suggest that they have the capability, support or imagination to pull off first place in a major election?

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