Anthony Butcher

I disagree. I don't think that anything is guaranteed. I think that there is a very realistic possibility that UKIP won't have any pay packets for the blokes at the top after the next EU elections if it doesn't up its game. As I have stated elsewhere, it only takes a drop of 3-4% in the UKIP vote for them to be down to two or three MEPs.

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komerad

Alex - I don't believe we have that amount of time. This self-enabling
Constitution/LT (what ever you wish to call it) is going to be passed by
this *government* in the next few MONTHS.
While hoping that Stuart Wheeler's case is succesfull & that Ireland manages a NO vote, both instances IMHO are really clutching at straws.
I'm afraid the EEC/EU have had 50+years to slowly,slowly ratchet, one click at a time, to get within months of their gaol.
I,a non believer, can only hope for a miracle.

Populist Lee

In anticipating the Miracle . . .
I wonder who'll be able to claim : "Ich bin vom Himmel gefallen"?

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Niall Warry

Surely you are forgetting the huge pension package our MEPs are accumulating from an organisation they wish to destroy.

Populist Lee

OK.
I'll ask the hypothetical question then . . .

When the UK leaves the EU, will these pension packages be terminated with immediate effect?

__________________
ENGLISH POPULISM
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who seek to reduce all the Peoples of the World
to Economic and Political Slavery under Globalism


POPULISM MEANS WHAT YOU WANT IS WHAT YOU GET


Coming soon to your computer . . . DISSIDENT CONGRESS UK

Anthony Butcher

You can't remove people's pensions just because the political realities change.

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Populist Lee

Do you mean you "can't" morally or "can't" in reality?

Even if there isn't an automatic termination the pension pot will cease to grow when we're Out, I suppose?

__________________
ENGLISH POPULISM
Stands as the only obstacle in the path of the Plutocrats
who seek to reduce all the Peoples of the World
to Economic and Political Slavery under Globalism


POPULISM MEANS WHAT YOU WANT IS WHAT YOU GET


Coming soon to your computer . . . DISSIDENT CONGRESS UK

Niall Warry

Anthony you come across as so even handed supporting UKIP here and raising issues there I'm surprised you ever left the NEC or are you just even handed in your capacity as the Forum's orginator and also like to play the devil's advocate???

Anthony Butcher

Er... I just try to be fair all round. It is very easy for those of us who regard Farage's leadership as a hindrance to UKIP to fall into a trap of being negative all the time, even when it isn't justified. The reality is that not everything is terrible. The recent results haven't shown any progress overall (both small advances and small retreats), but nor have they shown a collapse.

Anyway, back on to the topic of what UKIP can/could realistically achieve.

Theoretically, with some major changes, I think that UKIP could still directly influence the Tory position on the EU. The more confident of a Tory government the media become, the more chance their supporters will look elsewhere if a party better represents what they stand for.

If UKIP can really threaten the Tory votes and make another Labour government a realistic possibility, then Cameron will have to react to it.

I don't think that UKIP can take the swing voters - those people looking to vote against the Government will obviously pick the Tories. That really leaves the hard core Tory vote to aim for. Remove enough of them and the Tory victory looks a lot shakier.

Heck, if UKIP really wanted to stir it up, they could just copy all of the Tory manifesto pledges and just pick a handful of policies that grassroots Tories would support to differ on. This would, on the one hand, forever label them as a Tory pressure group, but on the other hand it would remove the fantasy wishlist of policies that they are currently flogging that are not going to convinve anyone.

Please note that I am talking only in terms of UKIP acting as an EU/Tory pressure group. This is not at all the direction that I wanted the party to head in, especially for the long term, but the recent elections, especially the C&N by-election, have shown that this is all UKIP is really about under Farage. It is a legitimate tactic, but self-limiting. Given that Farage will be leader for at least another two years, discussion of what can be achieved has to be within the limits of what his style of leadership might allow.

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mrabody

The problem with your analysis Anthony is that you are assuming that UKIP has appeal for traditional Tory voters. I disagree. First of all, with the Tories high in the polls a lot of their supporters and voters will be less likely to support us simply because they can sense victory, and success will allow them to forgive many of the things they dislike about David Blair... I mean Cameron.

In any event, with the Tories polling well, they are less likely to see us as a threat and therefore we have little leverage to force them to adopt an anti-EU position.

And having spent the past two days manning a booth at the Laughton Show in East Sussex I think it is fair to say that we probably have more appeal to Labour voters or non-aligned voters than Tory voters.

Labour appears to be mortally wounded. Therefore UKIP's strategy should be to try and hoover up as many Labour votes as possible in next year's European elections and the next parliamentary election. In the latter case it will probably result in more Tories elected to Westminster, but if we can persuade a lot of traditional Labour voters to vote for us,

We have plenty of policies, particularly on crime, immigration, and tax that should appeal to traditional working-class, Labour voters.

I would think that in next years Euro Elections we can hold the seats we have if we run an effective campaign. At this time I don't think we could win any seats in the next general elections if but if the euros go well, and we go after Labour (and to a lesser extent, Lib Dem) voters we could perhaps pick up a seat or two in the next parliamentary elections.