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#51 (permalink) | |
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Uber Member
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: London
Posts: 22,896
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Quote:
Both David (now Lord) Owen and George Galloway MP quit their party to join new and much smaller parties - and both managed to get re-elected as candidates for those small parties (SDP and the Respect Party respectively). UKIP members up and down the land will be hoping that Mr. Bob Spink, UKIP MP, will also retain his seat under the UKIP banner when the next General Election takes place. I wonder if Mr. Spink might want to stand as a UKIP candidate in next year's EU Election too. |
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#53 (permalink) |
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Junior Member
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 23
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Sober analysis suggests this will be an uphill struggle for UKIP to hold the seat, but I would not rule this out. 7.5% is a decent vote and there will no doubt be a vote for Spink based on his record and views. You will certainly poll over 20%.
Expect both the Tories and the BNP to put in considerable effort into preventing you winning the seat, and Labour will now treat it as a marginal as well, hoping to come through the middle by holding a 30% share of the vote, in case the UKIP and Tory vote splits evenly at around 28%. In terms of timing in London, it is about perfect. I hope UKIP up their Assembly campaign and get news of their first MP out to the boroughs. There was a danger of some of this vote sliding towards the BNP, but I think if UKIP can raise their game between now and election day, they can still win a seat. |
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#54 (permalink) | |
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Uber Member
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: London
Posts: 22,896
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Quote:
"Sober analysis" (your words) suggests that Mr. Bob Spink MP starts off as UKIP MP for Castle Point in a better position than did Lord Owen and George Galloway MP after they had quit Labour to stand as candidates for small parties. George Galloway fought (and won) Bethnal Green for the Respect Party at the last General Election. Lord (David) Owen fought (and won) Plymouth-Devonport for the SDP in 1983 and 1987. Both Lord Owen and Mr. Galloway fought those seats and won them for the SDP and Respect respectively with those new small parties having no record of fighting those constituencies before they were candidates for those small parties. In other words - they both started from 'zero' when they quit Labour and stood for the SDP and the Respect Party respectively. At Castle Point (Canvey Island/South Essex), Mr. Spink represents a seat where thousands of people voted UKIP at the last General Election and where a clear majority of voters in the constituency share his concerns about the EU. Mr. Spink starts off as UKIP MP for Castle Point in a better position than did Lord Owen as SDP candidate (June 1983) or as George Galloway MP did as a Respect Party candidate (May 2005). UKIP had a track-record of fighting a General Election at Castle Point - that was not the case with the SDP and the Respect Party in 1983 and 2005 in the seats of Lord Owen and Mr. George Galloway MP. If those two can win the first time their small parties contested the seats they went on to represent in the Commons after they quit Labour - Mr. Spink MP can win for UKIP in a seat where UKIP already has experience of fighting a General Election. Last edited by Britannist; 22-04-2008 at 10:43 AM. |
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#56 (permalink) | |
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Administrator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Long Ashton, Bristol
Posts: 9,823
Party: None
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Guardian text in full:
Quote:
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If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled! Label My Food - http://www.labelmyfood.org.uk |
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#57 (permalink) |
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Uber Member
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UKIP should be celebrating this BIG TIME.
How long has the party been waiting for this day? Now it has a full set! MPs, MEPs, Councilors and Lords. There is no excuse for the media to ignore UKIP now. I am personally overjoyed at this news and pray that UKIP make the best use of this! For starters, the party leadership should be allocating a decent budget and rallying troops to start an immediete and sustained campaign to make sure Spink is kept in his seat. Farage can now stick this feather in his cap too. When people ask what has he acheived in his short time as leader, he can now say two Lords and the holy grail an MP. This is 100% down to his work with BOO, that some people attacked him for. Come on, let's have some humility here. Farage has played a blinder and secured UKIP an MP that brings the party major credibility. Now follow it up with a stategy to make full use of this and make sure he has the BEST chance of winning at the next GE.
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http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems |
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#58 (permalink) |
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Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Stockport
Posts: 498
Party: UKIP
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This is a major credibility boost for UKIP, and is brilliant news. This will go down as one of the major milestones in UKIP history.
While the odds are perhaps stacked against Spink being re-elected at the next election, the odds of him being re-elected are now far better than the odds would otherwise have been of a UKIP candidate getting elected, and if he does get re-elected, that will be another major boost for UKIP. I notice that the BBC have not categorised it amongst their "top stories" on their website. What's the betting that had he defected to, say, the Green Party, it would have been the top story?
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"A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government." In Labour we trusted and now we are busted... again. It's the economy, stupid. |
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#59 (permalink) | |
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Administrator
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Long Ashton, Bristol
Posts: 9,823
Party: None
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Quote:
Was he still a Conservative party member? That could probably count as defection. To be fair, someone defecting from/leaving the Tory party is huge political news. An independent joining a minor party (UKIP, Greens etc) is just news. All that matters in the modern media is conflict amongst famous political personalities. Hence the value of the news is only relative to how embarrassing it is for Cameron, Clegg or Brown. If he had immediately left the Tories and gone straight to UKIP, it would have been much bigger news.
__________________
If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled! Label My Food - http://www.labelmyfood.org.uk |
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#60 (permalink) | |
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Uber Member
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Quote:
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http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems |
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