Tom Wilde

Can't do 'em any harm.

The "big three" parties' line about UKIP has been to claim that UKIP are a busted flush... have imploded.... are yesterday's news.... no point in reporting on their campaign in detail... move on folks, nothing to see here...

But thanks to Bob Spink, the "UKIP is finished" story has just come totally unravelled, so perhaps the party's campaign might just get some attention after all.

kernow

Fingers crossed!

Anthony Butcher

Looks like he is hard working, and will fit into UKIP's ethos well. Notable exceptions include his support for the Iraq invasion and support for the smoking ban.

Bob Spink MP, Castle Point (TheyWorkForYou.com)

__________________
If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled!
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Anthony Butcher

The last election looked like this:

Robert Spink Conservative 22,118 48.3
Luke Akehurst Labour 13,917 30.4
James Sandbach Liberal Democrat 4,719 10.3 Neil Hamper
UK Independence Party 3,431 7.5
Irene Willis Green 1,617 3.5

Majority 8,201
Turnout 65.9%

This is one of UKIP's strongest areas, with 7.5% of the vote. However, it would take a fair swing for him to get re-elected. Assuming he would need at least 30% to get re-elected, he would need to carry over around 10,000+ votes for him personally. That also assumes a stationary UKIP national vote.

I can't really see him keeping 10,000+ personal votes given they way he was thrown out of the Tory party, and the local Tories are of course very likely to run a bitter personal campaign against him. As much as the public is uninterested by MPs having affairs, there is still a large number of people who take infidelity seriously and regard it as a personality flaw and/or a 'sin'; that will count against him too.

I suspect that the local Lib Dems will be rubbing their hands with glee. The Labour vote is likely to collapse (if Labour's fortunes continue to decline), and UKIP could take enough votes off the Tories for a good Lib Dem result.

__________________
If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled!
Label My Food - http://www.labelmyfood.org.uk

Independent UKIP

Myself and I think other UKIP members such as Kernow are thinking far beyond the press release and website announcements with regard to how this will affect the party. Perhaps you should do the same regarding yourself Anthony?

The 'usual suspects' will I'm sure be along soon enough to denounce & deride the decision by Spink & Spink himself. Farage can, of course, do no right - by definition and Spink is thus guilty by association.

Anthony Butcher

I was commenting on their ability to organise launches, which seems quite appropriate.... especially as there is still no mention on the UKIP website.

How will it affect UKIP in the long term? Well, that really depends. The two UKIP lords haven't made a huge difference so far - they seem to be largely getting on with the same job as before, just under a UKIP banner. It may be that Spink will be more visible and will be able to actively promote UKIP.

If they are sensible, they will put everything they can into campaigning for his re-election now. He is the best hope of actually getting someone elected as a UKIP member (very different to independent elected people joining UKIP). Getting an MP elected is the key to success I think - it would mark UKIP as a serious political force.

In the mean time, however, his presence has reinforced the claim of UKIP being the fourth party in Britain (a claim which was starting to look a bit iffy).

__________________
If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled!
Label My Food - http://www.labelmyfood.org.uk

UKIPSW

Brilliant news.

His voting record looks excellent. Just disappointing that he supported/supports the illegal war in Iraq. I do hope he won't vote with Government if they get any silly ideas about Iran.

a swansong 4 europe

Is this the same Bob Spink that just ten days ago said he was "going to stand as an independent Conservative" and also, apparently, caused a bit of 'racial tension' by running an advert in the 2005 GE saying "what bit of 'send them back' don't you understand Mr Blair?" He also lost his seat in 1997 and then had to win it back.

Yes, deffinately a major boost for UKIP! Seriously, is THAT the sort of MP that UKIP wants? Or is it just another case of scraping the barrel? Still, I suppose it should do the UKIP campaign a little bit of good, but not too much as it wont help in their efforts to ditch the racist image the party has been accused of in the past.

I would urge caution here, seriously!

PS Why did'nt he do this in time to boost UKIP's election broadcast? The whole thing seems a bit suss to me.

Britannist

If it is true that Mr. Bob Spink MP has joined UKIP then it makes his constituency of Castle Point (Canvey Island in south Essex) the number one UKIP target seat at the next General Election and the party, will no doubt, make every effort to encourage as many UKIP members as it can to travel to Canvey Island to canvass and leaflet.

I would expect Mr. Spink MP to be invited to appear in the media (television, radio and newspapers) more than he has done before if he has joined UKIP. If he is now in UKIP then I would like to see him speak on BBC 1 Question Time and on other programmes too, of course.

As well as admirably opposing the vile EU, Mr. Spink has very sound views on defending the lives of unborn children (i.e. he is opposed to the horror that is abortion).

There is more news which pro-EU David Cameron (who insulted UKIP in a radio interview in April 2006) will not welcome: in today's Guardian it is revealed that he is less popular with voters than is his party (an ICM poll reveals) and that the Conservative poll lead of 13% is now down to 5% with the London Mayoral Elections to be held in only days.

The projected fall in support for the Cameron-Conservatives also comes with a Parliamentary By-Election at Crewe-Nantwich (Labour majority 7078) due in early Summer (following the sad loss of popular eurosceptic Labour MP Mrs. Gwyneth Dunwoody). If Labour retain Crewe-Nantwich it will be a boost for Gordon Brown.

More on the new ICM poll at:

"Tory opinion poll down from 13% to 5% - support for Cameron below that of his party"

London Mayoral Election 2008 candidates: Richard Barnbrook - British National Party, Gerard Batten - UK Independence Party, Siân Berry - Green Party, Alan Craig - Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party , Lindsey German - Left List, Boris Johnson - Conservative Party, Ken Livingstone - The Labour Party, Winston McKenzie - Independent, Matt O'Connor - English Democrats, Brian Paddick - Liberal Democrats.

Full details of the London Mayoral and Assembly candidates for the 1.5.2008 London Elections at:

London Elects - The candidates

and in posting number three at:

UKIP Gerard Batten London mayor Election Broadcast

Mikeuk

Pardon? Were the BNP hoping to recruit Spink? Surely not?

While we should not behave as if this were an election victory, it's very good news for a number of reasons. Obviously this gives UKIP a legitimate Westminster profile, and let's hope Spink is on hand as UKIP rentaquote whenever needed.

But it also gives the Tory scum a real headache in this constituency and UKIP a real focus that can result in fantastic recruitment starting with the splitting and hoovering up of what's left of the local Tories. The Tory traitors will pour resources into Castle Point come the next election but they will be wasted. Spink will split the vote and the scum will lose.

I think I may take time out to help him.