Latest Yorview Poll: UKIP on 3% - and may benefit from smokers switching from Labour

yorkshireindependent · 14-04-2008, 07:27 PM

The latest Yorview (my own research company) Poll shows the Conservatives with a 13% lead Conservatives are on 42% , Labour on 29% , Lib Dems 10% , UKIP 3% , Green 1% , Won’t Say / Don’t Vote 15%

The Yorview poll is taken from my soon to be issued National Smoking Ban Survey, based on the way people usually vote.

This reflects fairly closely the current voting intentions in other National Opinion Polls , e.g. an April 2008 ICM opinion poll shows the Conservatives 43% , Labour 32%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 7%. This shows that Landlords’ voting intentions may be fairly typical of those in the general population.

When you take into account the effect of the Smoking Ban on voting intention. We get a different picture, because many people stated the smoking ban would change the way they vote:

Labour’s vote collapses to 11%, the Conservatives go up three points to 45% , Lib Dems drop to 9% , UKIP go up to 10%, green unchanged on 1%. Won’t Say / Don’t Vote now 24%

This assumes that people switching to ‘a party that would end the ban’ would vote UKIP. It assumes that Landlords are typical of the voting population. It would also depend on UKIP promoting their position on the smoking ban. Labour’s collapse in vote is due to Labour voters not voting or switching to UKIP.

SponPlague · 14-04-2008, 07:29 PM

Hmm. Interesting.

blueblood1920 · 14-04-2008, 08:52 PM

Wouldnt pay any attention to that, the only poll that matters to anyone is that of May 1st.

14-04-2008, 07:27 PM	#1 (permalink)
yorkshireindependent Junior Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 22	Latest Yorview Poll: UKIP on 3% - and may benefit from smokers switching from Labour The latest Yorview (my own research company) Poll shows the Conservatives with a 13% lead Conservatives are on 42% , Labour on 29% , Lib Dems 10% , UKIP 3% , Green 1% , Won’t Say / Don’t Vote 15% The Yorview poll is taken from my soon to be issued National Smoking Ban Survey, based on the way people usually vote. This reflects fairly closely the current voting intentions in other National Opinion Polls , e.g. an April 2008 ICM opinion poll shows the Conservatives 43% , Labour 32%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 7%. This shows that Landlords’ voting intentions may be fairly typical of those in the general population. When you take into account the effect of the Smoking Ban on voting intention. We get a different picture, because many people stated the smoking ban would change the way they vote: Labour’s vote collapses to 11%, the Conservatives go up three points to 45% , Lib Dems drop to 9% , UKIP go up to 10%, green unchanged on 1%. Won’t Say / Don’t Vote now 24% This assumes that people switching to ‘a party that would end the ban’ would vote UKIP. It assumes that Landlords are typical of the voting population. It would also depend on UKIP promoting their position on the smoking ban. Labour’s collapse in vote is due to Labour voters not voting or switching to UKIP. __________________ http://www.yorkshireindependent.blogspot.com/

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14-04-2008, 07:29 PM	#2 (permalink)
SponPlague Uber Member Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Zurich Posts: 2,448	Hmm. Interesting.

14-04-2008, 08:52 PM	#3 (permalink)
blueblood1920 Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Liverpool Posts: 1,136 Party: BNP	Wouldnt pay any attention to that, the only poll that matters to anyone is that of May 1st.