Anthony Butcher

We are now 18 months into Farage's leadership. At the 12 month point, just 28% of those who voted thought that the first year had been pretty good or excellent.

Have the last six months seen an improvement?

There haven't been any big elections in the last six months, but the Lisbon Treaty/Consitution has been a major news issue. In theory, his campaign against the LT should have been a good measure of success or failure. Unfortunately, UKIP, it would appear, decided to skip campaigning on the LT altogether. This has been noted in the party, which is, I presume, why Knapman has felt obliged to organise his own rally.

So that brings us back to his management of the party. At the 12 month point, I listed the following. These are purely my own thoughts, and I presume others will add their own take. I have included updates in red:


Pros:
Two members of the House of Lords
Stabilised a declining membership - it has started falling slowly again
New website
UKIP Youth up and running - Had to restart this again after losing Del Young and the other mentors.
Improved emphasis on British politics
Policies launching - it has to be said that the policy groups have worked very well so far from what I have seen. DCB appears to have cranked up the credibility and is producing some serious documents (albeit without costings yet). This was a good delegation by Farage.
Recruited Marta Andreason on a salary to audit the accounts.
Has potentially improved the national vote to 3% from 2.4% in 2005 (according to a recent poll).
UKIP is still debt free, unlike the big three parties. It is an enviable financial position.

Cons:
The Electoral Commission court case - He annoyed the EC so much by publicly attacking them and accusing them of bullying that they have appealed the decision. This was a massive waste of money and an almighty ****-up all round. Must be coming to court again soon?
Lost numerous members of the NEC through resignation
The racist pasty flinging incident
Tom Wise saga - they still can't seem to decide whether TW is a UKIP MEP or not. According to the one who will not be named, the police are now investigating the matter as well.
Ashley Mote
No innovative campaigns - Nothing new in the last six months either.
No real improvement in the media coverage in the long term - he had some decent coverage on the radio and two appearances on Question Time. Still no break through into the printed media though.
Party just as divided as ever
Declining vote in local elections - no real election to judge here.
Massive (over)spending in Wales for zero returns - the EC website lists this as a massive £152,367!
Secretly setting up a call centre without informing the NEC
Being forced to close down the secret call centre.
Public argument with the Treasurer who claims he was "misled" - has since resigned as Treasurer.
No shadow cabinet appointed
No new spokesmen
With one notable exception the other MEPs have produced almost nothing - Gerard Batten is still the only one to do anything of note (London Mayoral candidate).
No new policies (the tax and education policies were written before) - a couple have been launched, and more are on the way apparently.
Agreeing to the principle of subsidiarity in the EU
Still in partnership with pro-EU MEPs in the Ind/Dem group
Yet another unimaginative inflatable stunt wasting thousands of pounds
No rebranding of the party
UKIP is still as amateur as ever
It still only has one major donor
The NEC elections were cocked-up/rigged yet again - Another NEC election and another strange result - Lisa Duffy came top with more votes than Farage received to become party leader, in an election with tripled turnout on the previous year. Unbelievably successful election.
Andrew Smith is still on the NEC with Farage's backing - now deselected by the UKIP members
Major public split and argument with Roger Knapman and other MEPs - this appears worse if anything. The 'South West' and UKIP appear to be briefing against each other. Knapman is organising his own rally. Knapman publicly criticised Farage for employing his wife.
Failed to run a campaign on the Lisbon Treaty.
UKIP Scotland tried to have every surviving Prime Minister arrested for treason.
Petrina Holdsworth, former Chairman and Leadership Candidate left the party.
Embroiled in two employment tribunals for unfair dismissal (Won one, lost one).
UKIP is still being investigated by OLAF it would appear.
He still hasn't resolved the apparently false claims of the Sunday Times about employing his son Derek Conway style.
UKIP was completely out done by the 'I Want A Referendum' campaign.
UKIP appeared to lurch 'to the right' with its new hardline policy on immigration - many party members thought that this was a good policy, rather than a negative though.
Farage gave a very poor conference speech containing significant factual errors and squandered valuable prime time news coverage attacking the Electoral Commission rather than promoting UKIP.

As I said last time, all that really matters is electoral success. Farage's stated aim in his leadership campaign was to double UKIP's vote in the EU elections, presumably gaining 18-20 MEPs. Is UKIP now on track to do that? Obviously EU elections will be very different to national elections. It will be interesting to see the numbers when the papers start polling EU election voting intentions.

The London Assembly elections will provide an insight into UKIP's national position I think. There is little evidence to suggest that UKIP will do better than the 3% it is apparently polling (which is an improvement over 2005), but will leave UKIP without any seats on the GLA - a loss of two. That will be the first major electoral loss since 2004 for UKIP, if it happens. Retaining a single seat, OTOH, should be seen as a very good result.

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fotley

Whats happening in Slough & Beaconsfield ?
Can you please tell me how many meetings these branches have per month ?

stathan

You're a very bitter man Anthony!


You've left.... now leave the hard work to us who remain.



You'll worry yourself into an early grave if you carry on your little vendetta in this fashion forever.





Relax...Chill out....Take a holiday ....and let those who remain in the party deal with UKIP party matters!

kernow

I couldn't agree more!

Westcountryman

Personally, I thought it was a well written analysis.

I also happen to think that UKIP has let the Conservatives take pole position on the Eurosceptic front. There's little doubt in my mind that the Tories have managed to present themselves as the leading Eurosceptic party, standing up for Britain's interests with little or no resistance from UKIP.

For example, I think Farage let Davis get away with far too much on the BBC's QT.

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Porthemmet Beach

Roland

NF arguing with DD on BBC question time would have been the most stupid thing he could have done. People know DD where as they don't know NF he would have looked like he was just garbing for attention and it would have shown.

The message was far better served with them being allies on the program rather than two opponents arguing through the program leaving the europhiles looking like the good guys united.

You have to remember the public do not understand the EU. Most see it as a union of Europe and not as a communist style centralized government of Europe. If the conservative party are to anti EU they will lose votes labour will win and then that is it goodbuy Britain.

kernow

I think you're absolutely right on this one!

SponPlague

... and a new Branch Website Style Content guide for webmasters, just launched, with a coherent overall web policy forming, and a committee to oversee it:
This will help us professionalise our image!

Westcountryman

Never heard of it. How comes UKIP Cornwall has received no such thing?

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Porthemmet Beach

Anthony Butcher

Er... you are the one making personal remarks. I am trying to present a balanced analysis of the last six months.

How is this relevant to a review of the last six months? You do understand that the purpose of a political forum such as this is to discuss politics... and given that so many people here are UKIP or ex-UKIP that often means discussing... UKIP.

By all means agree or disagree with what is written in the thread, but I don't understand the point of complaining about UKIP discussion on a eurosceptic political forum.

If you think that my posting is imbalanced and doesn't present a fair picture, then please provide some solid counter evidence and theories. I genuinely would welcome it; I am aware that I am more likely to see the negative, and it is always easy to criticise.

On the other hand, if you can't present a more positive outlook of the last six months, rather than telling me to shut up, wouldn't you be better off exploring how things could be improved for the coming six months? The ostrich argument doesn't really carry much weight I am afraid.

On the contrary, I find the whole thing fascinating, from the psychology (as you have amply displayed) to the political lessons learned from watching UKIP.

__________________
If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled!
Label My Food - http://www.labelmyfood.org.uk