eublues

"now so low that no paper can be bothered to give it the space for a rational appraisal."

To be fair papers have never been prepared to do this.

Millennium3

I am afraid this, although perhaps true, does not deal with the reality that UKIP's primary purpose is to get Britain out of the EU, or at least cut political and economic ties - as the majority want.

IWAR have demonstrated through their mini referenda that there is significant concern about the Lisbon Treaty and that the majority do want a referendum and, if a referendum were held, the Treaty would be rejected.

IWAR have also proposed that, because of the Lib/Dems suggestion, the referendum should ask two questions:

1] Do you want the Lisbon Treat ratified?

2] Do you want Britain to stay in the EU?

On a platter, IWAR have served UKIP a golden opportunity to achieve its primary aim. IWAR are a cross party alliance and cannot put this option to the voters at the next GE unless they decide to form a political party themselves. Why has UKIP not seized this opportunity with both hands and declared that their primary policy for the next GE will be to offer a referendum in these terms?

Unfortunately, the explanation is obvious - once out of the EU or with an arrangement which suits the majority UKIP's role ceases. NF, the minor celebrity and 48th most influential person in Britain, returns to the shadows - his handsome salary package gone. According to Wikipedia, NF is 44 on Thursday - he has another 20 odd years before retirement. He is very unlikely to attain his lofty position in any other guise, so he needs Britain in the EU for UKIP and him to flourish - the battle to get out of the EU has to be long and extended, even if this means that it is left too late and we cannot get out - destined to be a mere province of a German dominated European super state.

Rest assured, any Ukipper who disputes this is either mentally challenged, holds power or gains materially through a flourishing UKIP or expects to in the future.

If you are a UKIP member who is in the party to change our relationship with the EU - resign, for by remaining a member you are helping to ensure we stay in by strengthening NF's and UKIP's ability to keep us in through failing to act decisively.

Go join one of the other well established national political parties who genuinely intend to take us out or change our relationship. Unfortunately your choices are limited. As far as I can see there are only two - the BNP and the Liberal Party [the old one].

Anthony Butcher

I actually think that winning just one seat would be a good result. The last vote for UKIP in London was artificially inflated, and I don't think that it would be reasonable to expect Farage to be able to duplicate the alignment of stars that made two seats possible.

It is an impossible position he is in really - even if he manages to double UKIP's previous national vote of 2.4% and win a single seat, many will still claim that it is a disastrous loss.

Of course he is partly responsible for the loss of Hockney and Hulme-Cross; actually having two GLA members promoting the party in London for four years would have made a difference to the vote now. The decision not to encourage them to stay, or later to come back into the fold, looks like total hubris now.

However, as you say, losing both seats would indeed be a disaster, especially if the Greens, BNP or EDP win a seat. UKIP has been claiming it is the fourth party in Britain since 2004 but hasn't had a single electoral success since then. Losing its only two elected positions above council level would be a serious blow.

Farage needs an electoral success of some kind, even if it is just an increase in the vote share over 2005. There have been two major sets of elections under his leadership so far - the Welsh Assembly and the council elections last year. UKIP lost one council seat overall and didn't get anyone elected in Wales. Not exactly a glowing report so far.

__________________
If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled!
Label My Food - http://www.labelmyfood.org.uk

Millennium3

And just in case you dispute that UKIP is missing out with its appalling policies and dreadful strategy, this has been posted elsewhere.

Prepare for a shock BNP victory | Tim Hames - Times Online

Petrina

Although a lot of muck has been chucked at Tony`s analysis by the present regime`s supporters no one has come back with a comparable analysis from a different perspective,which speaks volumes .I think AB`s list is pretty fair .

The real problem which UKIP now face is the fact that they have sunk without trace
from the public view .
Inspite of all of its income and personnel extracted from the EU purse it has failed to make an impact and failed to hold itself up as the party which the disaffected can rely upon to take up their cause .
It has failed to become more professional in its approach and it still has a gaping hole in the centre -no London office ,no UKIP Press Office ,no real research going on ,no paper- work of any calibre produced (except by Batten now and then)etc .,just a rather disjointed structure with little principalities held by the respective MEPs.
It ain`t going to work like a well oiled machine until a properly set up centre emerges and orchestrates a proper plan of action for the membership to follow
and respect .

mrabody

Here is Dizzy's take on the Hames article and the reason for the BNP's good prospects for success this year.

prober

AB is perhaps kind in using the national 2.4% as a comparison. Yes the seats per vote rules have changed and 1 seat might reflect that but a fair comparison is % vote last time in LONDON versus % vote May.

Apart from local and macro issues, knowing BNP is the greatest threat to UKIP vote, UKIP has had over 4 years to build it's strategy and develop its case to the London voter as well as put why they dont need to vote BNP to get their concerns represented. If UKIP is humiliated by the BNP it will be because the public see BNP as a credible home for a protest vote to shock and force the political class to listen , whilst UKIP is seen as.................????? ( UKIP could still pull out of the bag something under wraps really clever and vote catching to parry )

Memories are 2005 when UKIP had no plan B when other parties wouldnt play the plan A UKIP ball.

It is difficult to see any substansive interest by the party in May local elections either in local government issue terms as a broadbased political party or using it as a vehicle to get whatever Lisbon or other macro messages it wants over ( eg a worthy intellectual LG manifesto but no hard hitting topical leaflet to down load and print on ANYTHING ).

Increasingly the impression is that UKIP is losing interest in being a high profile broadbased domestic issue party or even one trying to make an electoral impact other than branch initiatives. In failing to tackle Lisbon .. a main EU reason for it existing ,it sems to be retreating to a lager position of 2009 MEP elections with the hope in the meantime that leader appearances on Question Time is enough to keep voters on side. A result of this overall impression is a gradual drift away of activists.

I hope I am completely wrong of course and May will show some stunning stragegy from UKIP & good results. In some counties who have battled despite everything some good results should be obtained.

Millennium3

Yes I do think there is some truth in what 'Dizzy Thinks', but, for me, the most important issue is that of domestic politics. The party is too much controlled by NF and the MEPs who, if Wikipedia is right, have a pretty full-time job with the amount of work generated by the EU and their monthly move to Strasbourg for a week. It is impossible being so fully occupied with the EU Parliament and spending most of the time in Europe to keep a finger on the pulse of domestic politics. That is why those of us live here and who's interest is primarily domestic politics get so infuriated when golden opportunities are lost. Responding to the current events is the way for UKIP to be brought into focus - provided the response is appropriate.

NF is a good performer at the EU Parliament and generally when he appears on TV or radio - however he cannot be both leader in Europe and in Britain, both jobs will suffer. A UK supremo is required and someone who does not want to be an MEP. NF does seem to have trouble delegating responsibility, although I understand this role has been given to DCB as Deputy Leader, who, by the accounts here, does not seem dynamic enough to do the job that is required.

Perhaps this is the problem, DCB is not suitable for this immensely important job and the party is suffering accordingly.