Westcountryman

Are they? Any links forthcoming?

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Roland

Hard to say. How ever looking at the whole history of the EU the whole method of gaeting meber states to agree to giving up power has been a long list of cons, bribes, and black mail.

I think it was Denmark who voted in a right wing party and the public were worried and agreed to the other member states taking sanctions to remove what they saw as the threat of fascism. Denmark was then forced to vote in a left wing party who were a bit more EU friendly.

Take this scenario.

Say UKIP were to win the election in this country. The rest of Europe would here how we'd voted in a far right party scare their respective publics they'd gang up sanctions (probably unofficial) may well be taken against us the economy would have struggle jobs would be lost and the British public would not blame the EU they would blame the government of the time which in this scenario is UKIP.

Britain is a strong enough country to deal with this but after a couple of years of hardship it would not matter the public would still hold UKIP responsible.

To this day I still wounder if the recession of the early 90's that brought thatcher down was not a manufactured event.

Millennium3

The best ploy and one that the Tories might play, but I doubt, would be to hold a referendum which all the signs show would reject the LT, then since it was the public that rejected the Treaty, it would be much easier to blame the EU because of all of the games they were playing for the adverse fallout. If this is what the Tories planned to do I would have though they would declare it now as they are likely to gain more votes than they lose for holding a referendum, on principle, particularly since they have been arguing for just that through the LT ratification process. However, one thing seems for sure - if we do get out, or even untangle the political and economic ties which the majority of the public want, there will be some difficult times to weather in the immediate and medium term.

Alex McKee

Great analysis Tony.

Some notes:

Racist pasty flinging incident - not exactly something that could be anticipated or stopped.
NEC election - definitely something suspicious but a bit early to call it rigging. Let's see if any (plausible) explanation is forthcoming.

stathan, why don't you try to counter the arguments rather than throw insults?

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Anthony Butcher

It depends upon what kind of people one employs I suspect. As you say, you can't predict this kind of thing, but for Farage to employ someone who thinks it is acceptable to racially abuse someone doesn't exactly boost his credentials as a judge of character. UKIP is especially sensitive to claims of racism, so this kind of thing should be avoided at all costs.

That was in reference to the previous NEC election! Several people claimed that it was deliberately re-run because the first one didn't give the 'correct' result. Note that I put 'cocked-up/rigged' - I have no particular knowledge from which to make a judgement on that.

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Roland

Lets face it a call for a referendum is a call for no further integration into the EU. A referendum is the best policy to start making moves in that direction as
it would be a public rather than government decision.

If the EU were to threaten to throw us out this would be the dream come true . The government of the time could then turn to the public and say we will not be black mailed, the public would get their back up, we could then pull out, the country would have problems but the EU would take the blame not the British government.

Unfortunately I doubt this would happen far more likely the EU would play it cool and keep picking power in little pieces and the conservative party would play it cool and keep renegotiating deals. The problem with this is sooner or latter another labour government will come in and finish the job.

If the EU felt it could carry on with out Britain it would have done so by now. As long as we're in the EU they know it's only a matter of time. However in that time the EU may well start to show signs of weakening or falling apart if that starts to happen then it will be very easy or even a natural process for Britain to pull out.

stathan

Not really, I have no inclination to carry out an 18 month review of anything as we speak.

Of my own efforts in effect I carry out a continuous review of what I do and adjust accordingly as I see fit, like most people I guess that is very much hampered by lack of funds and publicity.

Which is no different to the central party, it's all very well criticising that UKIP don't do this and don't do that as if there is some sort of miracle formula that requires no funding to implement, but I'm afraid back in the real world mucha wonga is required.


Do I think that all is lightness and Roses in the UKIP camp? No of course I don't, but on the other hand I don't batter away like a scratched record like Anthony and others do, and as mentioned before whilst there is no harm in discussion when you become obsessed with the same subject and criticism in every sentence over and over again you end up sounding like a nutter such as has happened to David Noakes and eventually you lose all credibility.


I have walked away from organisations in the past that I have lost faith in their running, but that's it I just walk away and leave them to it.


If Anthony is correct in his assertion of NFs alleged stitch up and dishonesty then I would expect him to be less than complimentary, but to drone on and on with criticism in every post about a party to which he no longer belongs too, is not only bizarre but possibly a touch disturbing.

Get a life and channel your energy positively rather than coming across as a bitter spurned individual who won't let go!

Alex McKee

Anthony did let go of UKIP. He's not a member any longer. However UKIP is the most promising political party to emerge in a very long time, so it's unsurprising that even ex-members continue to be interested in the party.

If you are genuinely disinterested in analysing or debating such analysis then don't post on this thread. On other forums your post would be regarded as trolling. So be thankful that Anthony's policy allows your post to be left in situ.

If you think that such analysis is unnecessary, think again. It is from analysis of success and failures that we understand how to replicate such successes and how to avoid such failures. This is the basis of all achievement since antiquity.

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Anthony Butcher

Perhaps you should review my postings - you will see that I do try to be fair in my analysis. For example, in the past day or so I complemented DCB on his efforts regarding the Policy Groups and defended Farage against accusations by 'Star'.

You are of course free to interpret it as you wish and make a judgement without knowing me. However, UKIP remains the principle opponent to the EU, and I support the general thrust of their national policies. Just because I am not in the party doesn't mean that I no longer have an active interest in its future, as a voter, commentator and generally interested party. Chatting about UKIP, sad as it is, interests me!

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Jim Smith

Anthony is right to do this assessment as UKIPs profile in the MSM is now so low that no paper can be bothered to give it the space for a rational appraisal.

The indicators on the state of UKIP do not look good. Membership in decline, polls at 2%, less than 12 councillors etc etc. Farage can of course avoid that debate with its members as only those prepared to tolerate him remain.

The assessments he cannot ignore are the May elections and next year's Euro elections, which will be the public tests of Farage's Leadership.

It starts this May, when the main comparison will be with the 2 seats won in the GLA in 2004. To win only one will be a setback for Farage. To win none would be a disaster for UKIP.

Next year the focus will be on the Euros and here Farage's "double the MEPs" is the right measure to assess him by. It looks more like that the outcome will not be to double the numbers but instead UKIP are heading for a halving of them. Farage may not even be an MEP anymore if the party's vote dips under 10%.