prober

In order to avoid the setting up of an Islamic Party and resulting shift to it from their vote , New Labour will simply wangle up front or behind scenes imposition of "Islamic only " New Labour PPC shortlists in the constituencies in which an Islamic Party might do well under the assumption that Muslims will be prejudiced and only vote for a Muslim if given a choice... just as NL is setting up for "black only" shortlists on the assumption that black people are racist and will be reluctant to vote for a non black.

For_England

The problem is, if they do that, they will alienate their traditional voters. I can't see how they can avoid having their vote split.

Martin Harvey

First point is, do not trust opinion polls. I have found that over the last ten years, that UKIP's best results are the same as the percentage given for 'others'. It is interesting to note these figures and also the Lib Dem figures.
Others Lib Dems.
2001 7% 18%
2005 9% 23%
latest 13% 14%
I do not agree that UKIP has had no publicity for ages. We have had our name in the papers and on Television and radio regularly, and appear to be accepted as a serious part of British Politics, around my area we are even quoted in unsolicited local newspaper articles.
9% for UKIP in 2005 was pretty close to our best result then, and is in line with the relative improvement over the 7% of 2001. According to this 'formula' our best result now would be around 13%, however that sort of expectation would most likely 'snowball' into an even better result. Watch out Lib Dems, and as for the other 'others' and the undecided, UKIP is the Party to vote for if you want to make a real difference in British Politics.

Martin Harvey.

SponPlague

Galloway is now "Respect Renewed" according to Newsnight. Having tried to prove that the factions of the left could work together without acrimony, it's now a Life of Brian scenario: People's Front of Judea, Judean People's Front etc. And yes, while George can't be a cat, he has the right to act like one if he wants to...

For_England

Recent eletions show that UKIP's support has collapsed in those areas where they received good results in 2005. Like it or not, immigration and demographics are going to continue to concern the public more and more, and we need a party like the English Independence Party who are serious about restoring Britain to its traditional demographic character.

blueblood1920

UKIP in 2005 didnt have the BNP or EDP in many seats splitting the vote giving you a good boost. Also UKIP had just had a great result the year before in the Euros. Next elections I think UKIP will be going in on a run of dismal results, more candidates standing for both EDP and BNP with both parties investing more money into their campaigns. UKIP could be a party confined to the history books by 2010.

For_England

I agree - UKIP is not seen as an effective protest vote anymore. Though the establishment no doubt likes it much more than the other two parties, and might try to build it up again prior to the elections. I wonder if the EDs will take off or remain ineffective.

Percy the Poodle

The margin of error on all such polls is 3%. Movement within this range indicates nothing tangible in general election terms which is what the question refers to. If your total vote never exceeds 3% than you cannot really read anything from the movement that occurs between 0-3. The greens always do disproportionately well in polls and flop totally at General elections, because many like the idea of being green but don't actually vote that way for tactical reasons.

Independent UKIP

I don't necessarily disagree with you there. I'm sure you will be kind enough to link to your comparable post in the "No support for UKIP" topic which I have somehow overlooked. If you did not make such a post I trust you will be happy to explain precisely why and I look forward to reading that explanation. Thanks very much.

Martin Harvey

For England wrote;
Recent eletions show that UKIP's support has collapsed in those areas where they received good results in 2005.
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Not true, just another negative ED remark.

This year 2007, UKIP in the East alone, has achieved twenty election results between 14.8% and 38.4%, nineteen between 9.9% and 14.8%, thirty eight between 4.9 % and 9.9%. There are more of which I have no record.

There is no doubt that UKIP is campaigning really well and the establishment and its quislings are really worried.
Martin Harvey