Millennium3

Try to see the bigger picture B.

Millennium3

Read my original post again B.

Britannist

The Conservatives are not predicted to gain 40% of the vote (at the next General Election). Today's opinion polls forecast an average poll rating for the Conservatives of 35% - the Conservative Home poll average puts Conservative support at about the level the party lost the last General Election on.

Britannist

There's no need to be rude.

We are no more in a "fantasy world" than you are, Millennium3. Our interpretation of the situation is just a bit different from yours.

Britannist

Many hold the view that the best way UKIP can bring about the prospects of a referendum being held in our country on the EU Constitution (EU 'Amending' Treaty) is for it to target the Labour vote in the most marginal Labour-held constituencies.

If UKIP deprive Labour MPs of vital votes in those seats, Labour could lose its overall majority - in theory making it more likely that Brown (as head of a minority Labour Government) would have to 'cave in' and give us that referendum that we want.

Of course, UKIP should particularly target the vote of those pro-EU Labour MPs in marginal Labour-held seats. It would not target the vote of any Labour MP who is a member of Better Off out of the EU.

On the new boundaries, Labour only have to lose 25 seats to lose their overall majority in the Commons. Although if Labour is less than 20 or so seats short it could continue to govern with the support of other pro-EU parties.

You seem to think, Millennium3, that UKIP takes votes only from the Conservatives.

If that is your view then I would have to point out that you are wrong.

Britannist

Not true (and please don't call it "the big three" - it is the big two: the europhile Liberal Dims are not a big party).

As I have stated before - and you have carefully avoided the point - I accept that UKIP is a small party (I keep on referring to as a 'small' party in various other threads on other subjects) but it could still have a greater influence on the next General Election that at the last even if it gets less votes next time.

As you know, Millennium3, UKIP got over 600, 000 votes at the last General Election and the Bruges Group said it took vital anti-EU votes from the Conservatives (allegedly costing the Conservatives 27 seat gains).

As I have written earlier, UKIP could influence the result in double that number of seats if the votes are very close in marginal constituencies at the next General Election. If UKIP targets the Labour vote in those marginal seats Labour are going to have problems.

Britannist

I do Millennium3. The question is - do you?

I pointed out earlier that we should not rule out Gordon Brown agreeing to a referendum on the EU 'Amending' Treaty. It looks unlikely at this point - but is not impossible. He must have been told of the Sun newspaper poll a couple of weeks ago which said that he would have a 17% lead over the Conservatives if he agreed to a referendum. If Gordon Brown wants an Autumn General Election and to come out of with a huge majority there is only one he will get that big win - by agreeing to us having a say on the EU 'Treaty' (EU Constitution).

If he fails to give us the referendum that we all want - then UKIP must target all key Labour marginal constituencies (both Labour-held marginals and Labour target marginals) - except for those where the sitting MP is a member of Better off Out.

The tactic would (at least) be to try to deprive Brown's Lie-bour Party of its overall majority and to get a pro-referendum majority in the House of Commons.

This is my view and that of my UKIP friend.

And yet you claim we are living in a "fantasy world".

Do you have a problem with UKIP targeting Labour marginals in order to bring about a pro-referendum majority in the Commons, Millennium3?

Britannist

Read my first post on this subject again, M3.

Millennium3

I think we will have to agree to disagree B and see how things develop.

Britannist

Like you, Millennium3, I want a referendum on the EU 'Treaty' (EU Constitution) - if we don't get one from Brown and he does not call a General Election for this Autumn then we have to see how things develop in the coming months (as you suggest above).

As things stand this evening, it looks like no Autumn General Election and no EU 'Treaty' referendum. Clear evidence that Labour is frightened of democracy and of allowing the British people a say.