Is a switch to UKIP behind the Tory decline?

Anthony Butcher · 20-09-2007, 10:50 PM

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Is a switch to UKIP behind the Tory decline?

Quote:

Is a switch to UKIP behind the Tory decline?

September 20th, 2007

Is Cameron finally losing his right wing?

The above is part of the detailed data from yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian and has figures which should be deeply worrying for the Tory leadership.
The section I reproduce shows the current voting intentions of those who said they voted for the three main parties in 2005 and the figure that stands out is the proportion of 2005 Tory voters who now say they will switch to UKIP. From a quick scan through the records this is the highest this has been.
Until now there’ve been lots of threats on CONhome and from writers like Simon Heffer of a desertion of traditional Tory voters to UKIP and this simply has not been shown in the polling data - that is until this latest survey.
Normally the number of Tory>UKIP switchers has been at 1% or even less. This figure is quite startling.
Mike Smithson

tito · 20-09-2007, 10:55 PM

Good

Keep it coming Camoron

Independent UKIP · 20-09-2007, 11:43 PM

If I understand what I am looking at the figure for "other" looks to be understated. I would love what I see to be true despite the lack of Labour & Lib Dems coming over to UKIP. We do need their prior supporters to come over to us in the future so I hope the policy groups will be coming up with stuff that doesn't just attract former tories.

Roland · 21-09-2007, 12:00 AM

The tories have shot them selves in the foot. Cameron was supposed to have done for conservatives what blair did for labour. At least blair believed his own BS. Cameron is an opportunist who stands for nothing and it shows. They would have done better doing what they did best which was to be conservatives. Looks like we're stuck with brown.

kernow · 21-09-2007, 12:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Independent UKIP

lack of Labour & Lib Dems coming over to UKIP. We do need their prior supporters to come over to us in the future so I hope the policy groups will be coming up with stuff that doesn't just attract former tories.

I'm sorry, but get real! I am 100% opposed to the EU! I couldn't care less what policies a pro EU party came up with , I would never back them simply because they are pro EU! Anyone who looks at this forum regularly know I'm a hang them and flog them merchant! Even if the Lib Dems or Labour promised to bring back Capital and Corporal punishment I wouldn't back them, because I would know that the EU wouldn't allow it to happen! Anybody who still backs the Lib Dems or Labour know about their pro EU stance, so obviously approve of it! UKIP will win Westminster seats through disalusioned Tory voters!

Britannist · 21-09-2007, 12:24 AM

There's more on the latest Guardian/ICM poll referred to by Anthony in the first posting to this thread at:

Cameron now most unpopular party leader new poll says as Tory vote reduces

Britannist · 21-09-2007, 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kernow

Anybody who still backs the Lib Dems or Labour know about their pro EU stance, so obviously approve of it!

Are you sure about that Kernow - I would suggest that many people who vote for the Liberal Dim Party are not aware that they (the Lib Dims) are in favour of destroying the ancient British Pound, handing over more powers to the EU (such as in the latest EU 'Treaty') and that they support the EU Superstate now under construction.

Britannist · 21-09-2007, 12:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roland

Cameron is an opportunist who stands for nothing and it shows. They would have done better doing what they did best which was to be Conservatives.

Some people have been warning for a while now that by calling himself a "liberal Conservative" David Cameron could lose 'core' Conservatives voters and gain no new ones. 'Liberal' types (targeted by David Cameron) do not appear to have come across to the Cameron-Conservatives according to recent polls to replace those polls say David Cameron has lost.

Alex McKee · 21-09-2007, 01:11 AM

Kernow, perhaps you should re-read what Independent UKIP wrote. He did not mention any other party, he spoke of UKIP's policy groups.

Millennium3 · 21-09-2007, 05:19 AM

Although it might seem that Cameron would do better if he moved right - it is the breakdown of the Lib/Dem vote that is causing the problems. Only 67% of those who voted Lib/Dem would vote for them now. Those Labour has gained 18% of these whilst the Tories have 10%. If Cameron moved right, he might regain the UKIP vote but would lose those who would move from the Lib/Dems and those who would move from Labour.

What UKIP has done is ensured Labour of a further term and, perhaps worse continued rule by the Scottish Raj.

YouTube - Part of the Union?

21-09-2007, 12:24 AM	#6 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	ICM poll There's more on the latest Guardian/ICM poll referred to by Anthony in the first posting to this thread at: Cameron now most unpopular party leader new poll says as Tory vote reduces

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20-09-2007, 11:43 PM	#3 (permalink)
Independent UKIP Uber Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: London Posts: 2,310	If I understand what I am looking at the figure for "other" looks to be understated. I would love what I see to be true despite the lack of Labour & Lib Dems coming over to UKIP. We do need their prior supporters to come over to us in the future so I hope the policy groups will be coming up with stuff that doesn't just attract former tories.

21-09-2007, 12:00 AM	#4 (permalink)
Roland Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 857	The tories have shot them selves in the foot. Cameron was supposed to have done for conservatives what blair did for labour. At least blair believed his own BS. Cameron is an opportunist who stands for nothing and it shows. They would have done better doing what they did best which was to be conservatives. Looks like we're stuck with brown.

21-09-2007, 01:11 AM	#9 (permalink)
Alex McKee Moderator Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Gloucester Posts: 6,665	Kernow, perhaps you should re-read what Independent UKIP wrote. He did not mention any other party, he spoke of UKIP's policy groups.