TonyG

One thing that might be being missed here:
Most Tory supporters want out of Europe. They believe that it is only a matter of time before the party has the guts to say so.
The problem is that with Cameron and the current bunch of crazies they can see that it just isn't going to happen.
As long as the voting public think that the only chance of us getting out of the EU is with one of the two main parties 'seeing the light' then they will conitinue to do so.
If, say fifty MPs shifted and had the guts to go against the concrete weight around their necks, formed a new party and UKIP merged with it - it would not be a good move to simply rebrand UKIP - then it is entirely possible that it could get the desired result and produce a proper anti-EU party with sitting MPs that people would see has a real chance of government.
It would also present an opportunity for other anti-EU MPs from Labour to join as well.
With the two main parties only having a fag paper between their policies it shouldn't be too difficult to establish a manifesto that has broad appeal.

What would be the kiss of death would be for a 'gang of four' situation to arise or it would be a complete failure and the kiss of death for the anti-EU movement.

TonyG

The other thing that it would do is to provide an opportunity for the smaller anti-EU parties to affiliate or merge also.
It would mean the end of the split vote as their primary reason for existence would be gone.

__________________
If you don't think you can change the world, who do you expect to do it for you?

----

http://www.mercola.com/townofallopat...ofallopath.htm

Millennium3

I don't think you should hold your breath!

TonyG

Maybe not, the main point is that it could work if enough make a move.
It may not happen soon though either.
Power is more important to many MPs, understandably, and while they think that they can win with Cameron it is unlikely to happen.
However, if in a year's time it looks like Camaron has fkd it up and Brown is going to win then it wouldn't surprise me at all.

__________________
If you don't think you can change the world, who do you expect to do it for you?

----

http://www.mercola.com/townofallopat...ofallopath.htm

22ANDUK

It's a Eurosceptic's 'wet dream' - a sizeable bloc of sitting eurosceptic MPs breaking off to unite the divided anti-EU factions and merge with UKIP and potentially people like the EDP, as well as reflecting politically what a substantial majority of the public think already. In relation to Farage I would imagine he would accept this, gracefully stepping down in favour of a leading, established MP, but holding an influential position in the Shadow Cabinet such as Foreign Secretary (if they could get him elected in a previously 'safe' Tory area), as well as leader of an even great bloc of MEPs. There was talk only a year ago of something similar happening and there is, as they say, no 'smoke without fire'.

At this very minute I can see pressure points openly - such as David Cameron's recent grammar school pledge - but the fact that many Tory MPs are 'rebelling' that does not mean they are about to break off. So far all we have seen off this 'rebellions' is a few sniping quotes and commentaries in the papers, but as for practical action, barely nothing. As long as Cameron appears to be regaining votes (which have more to do with failing Labour than a resurgent Conservative party) many MPs will happily sit tight.

I cannot see anything happening before 2009/2010 due to several reasons, firstly the economy will hold itself at least until then, Gordon Brown will at least hold a plateau of Labour power in the country, and most especially the Tory MPs will want to secure all their nominations for the General Election and that most Prospective Parliamentary Candidates, who are crucial in this talk of forming a party due to their active campaigning and freshness but have been overlooked thus far, will not want to defect to a rival party and lose the established activism of the local party.

This of course is worrying for several reasons. Should the Conservatives win the next election through an outright majority then these MPs would never split off and simply hand government back to Labour, governors of the last 12 or 13 years. The situation would be similar in a coalition government. The most likely scenario would be one of a coalition government of Labour/Liberal Democrat or potentially involving a Conservative government and the Liberal Democrats. Such a coalition would most likely lead to Cameron renouncing practically all the party's beliefs, a year or two down the line and the Tories now introducing overt liberal or even socialist measures and the rebellion begins.

Additionally there are three things to ponder about:

1) Is David Cameron really 'strong' enough to hold his party together? He has yet to really show some true mettle and if these so far reluctant 'rebels' go for it, thier iron would be a match for the effete Tory leadership.

2) Does UKIP really want to ally itself with these people? I know its better than nothing but many are overtly authoritarian and a look at the MPs who voted in favour for this Freedom of Information (Amendment) bill on friday revealed some surprising choices (Nicholas Winteron, member of BOO, as well as 'Conseravtives such as Ann Widdecombe). In some cases I would rather have Liberal Democrats such as Norman Baker at my side!

3) The best scenario to achieve this new faction is to defeat, yet again, the Tories at the next election outright. The only way to do this is to continue the fight to destroy them - and vote UKIP!

TonyG

If ever there was a 'wet dream' scenario, that is it!

__________________
If you don't think you can change the world, who do you expect to do it for you?

----

http://www.mercola.com/townofallopat...ofallopath.htm

Michael Heaver

Getting MP's to advocate openly, as a group, the withdrawal from the EU would make gaining grass roots support so much easier to drum up. Credibility is what we need more of, and so this potential "merge", to my mind, is a wet dream.

But, I severely doubt it will happen, as the potential Conservative defectors will worry for their jobs. In actual fact, a UKIP type "common sense" Party, I think, would be hugely successful and could even push the Tories or Labour into second place come the next election, the vacuum and feeling of discontent is now so far reaching.

Lets wait and see, with hope.

Millennium3

This vacuum is measured by GE turnout, around 60% in the last two elections against a post war average of 75%. Who would say, confidentially, that it will not be around 50% at the next?

Westcountryman

The problem is, how long would they remain as sitting MPs? In all likelihood, they'd be ousted at the next GE.

__________________
Anyone who supports 42 days pre-charge detention should read this:

42-day detention: the threat to our liberty | John Major - Times Online

and this:

Why David Davis is right to make a stand | Mail Online

TonyG

Not necessarily.
I would agree if less than 10 defected, ie like the gang of four, it would be career suicide. But if a whole bunch of them went then they would have a considerable amount of credibility.
For a start they would be seen to be putting their money where there mouth was and standing up for their convictions - something that it very rare, but much admired when it does happen.
Robin Cook went up in most people's estimation when he resigned over the war, for example.
That would give them a far higher chance of attracting more candidates from both parties, not from the Lib Dems of course, as well as giving UKIP something worthwhile to get involved with.
It is the only real chance that any of us have of getting an anti-EU government.

__________________
If you don't think you can change the world, who do you expect to do it for you?

----

http://www.mercola.com/townofallopat...ofallopath.htm