Would UKIP perform better under the Tories or Labour?

Dissident Congress · 20-02-2007, 07:04 PM

A possibility exists that the Tories will win the next general election. Cameron might not be the most inspiring leader they have, but one weapon the Tories have in their armoury is public disgust with Labour.

Now would UKIP perform better under a Tory government or another term of Labour?

mkpdavies · 21-02-2007, 07:23 AM

It should be a gimme that the Tories win the next election.

I don't think it's going to happen though. I live in a very Tory area, yet all I hear is contempt. You can x 20 in non Tory areas.

Britannist · 21-02-2007, 09:00 AM

Few expect the Conservatives to get a majority at the next General Election - even less so if the next Laobur Prime Minister cuts tax in order to please the voters.

For the Conservatives to win the next General Election they need the biggest post-war swing ever - the largest one was in 1979 when Lady Thatcher came in on a swing of 5.5% to the Conservatives. The Conservatives need a swing of 7% to win their own overall majority at the next General Election and they also need to be well ahead of Labour.

David Cameron is not going to get a swing of that size at the next General Election - and even if he did, as long as Labour is within 3% of the Conservative share of the vote (below or above it) they (Labour) should manage to hold on to power (with their own overall majority).

Dissident Congress · 21-02-2007, 10:50 AM

I'm not too sure about this. Swings are an easy way at looking at things, but they are quite deceptive. What matters is where the votes are cast. Places like Burnley are irrelevant to the Tories at a general election so the poor results at the local elections won't hurt them very much. At the same time the Tories can afford to lose a few hundred votes to the Lib-Dems and UKIP in their safe seats because they will still hold them. It is the battleground constituencies that matter. If the Tories put in a strong effort in the battleground constituencies then they could win them and the general election.

It is difficult to make any conclusions at the moment but this time next year with Blair and Prescott gone a clearer picture will emerge. Cameron might be a wet lemon but public disgust with Labour is rapidly setting in.

22ANDUK · 21-02-2007, 11:10 AM

The best UKIP can hope for is a 'Hung Parliament', one where all 3 'big' parties look incompetent and weak, unable to push anything through and yet at the same time 'cosying' up to each for support. It wouldn't matter then who was in power.

UKIP would have the opportunity to position itself as the 'unofficial opposition'.

Dissident Congress · 21-02-2007, 12:56 PM

What exactly is UKIP gearing themself up for? The tactics deployed by UKIP will need to be designed around whatever government is in power if UKIP is to succeed. Has UKIP even considered the possibility of a hung parliament or a change in government?

20-02-2007, 07:04 PM	#1 (permalink)
Dissident Congress Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 750	Would UKIP perform better under the Tories or Labour? A possibility exists that the Tories will win the next general election. Cameron might not be the most inspiring leader they have, but one weapon the Tories have in their armoury is public disgust with Labour. Now would UKIP perform better under a Tory government or another term of Labour?

21-02-2007, 07:23 AM	#2 (permalink)
mkpdavies Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Woking Posts: 32,078 Party: Libertarian Party	It should be a gimme that the Tories win the next election. I don't think it's going to happen though. I live in a very Tory area, yet all I hear is contempt. You can x 20 in non Tory areas. __________________ http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Lib Dems

21-02-2007, 09:00 AM	#3 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 23,176	Consrevative performance at next General Election discussed Few expect the Conservatives to get a majority at the next General Election - even less so if the next Laobur Prime Minister cuts tax in order to please the voters. For the Conservatives to win the next General Election they need the biggest post-war swing ever - the largest one was in 1979 when Lady Thatcher came in on a swing of 5.5% to the Conservatives. The Conservatives need a swing of 7% to win their own overall majority at the next General Election and they also need to be well ahead of Labour. David Cameron is not going to get a swing of that size at the next General Election - and even if he did, as long as Labour is within 3% of the Conservative share of the vote (below or above it) they (Labour) should manage to hold on to power (with their own overall majority).

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21-02-2007, 10:50 AM	#4 (permalink)
Dissident Congress Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 750	I'm not too sure about this. Swings are an easy way at looking at things, but they are quite deceptive. What matters is where the votes are cast. Places like Burnley are irrelevant to the Tories at a general election so the poor results at the local elections won't hurt them very much. At the same time the Tories can afford to lose a few hundred votes to the Lib-Dems and UKIP in their safe seats because they will still hold them. It is the battleground constituencies that matter. If the Tories put in a strong effort in the battleground constituencies then they could win them and the general election. It is difficult to make any conclusions at the moment but this time next year with Blair and Prescott gone a clearer picture will emerge. Cameron might be a wet lemon but public disgust with Labour is rapidly setting in.

21-02-2007, 11:10 AM	#5 (permalink)
22ANDUK Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,438	The best UKIP can hope for is a 'Hung Parliament', one where all 3 'big' parties look incompetent and weak, unable to push anything through and yet at the same time 'cosying' up to each for support. It wouldn't matter then who was in power. UKIP would have the opportunity to position itself as the 'unofficial opposition'.

21-02-2007, 12:56 PM	#6 (permalink)
Dissident Congress Senior Member Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 750	What exactly is UKIP gearing themself up for? The tactics deployed by UKIP will need to be designed around whatever government is in power if UKIP is to succeed. Has UKIP even considered the possibility of a hung parliament or a change in government?