jp

YouGov have published their latest poll breakdown here:

http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/STI070101002_1.pdf

Britannist

Just to save people time if they don't want to look through all those figures - here are the main points:

Opinion Poll
YouGov
Sample Size 2019
Date of polling 8th - 9th February 2007

Voting intentions:

Conservatives 37%
Labour 32%
Liberal Dims 18%
UKIP 5%
BNP 3%
SNP 3%

Would not vote 10% (not included above)
Don't know how will vote 14% (not included above)

Main points:

UKIP scores the highest in the following three categories:

UKIP are on 7% with voters aged 55 or over
UKIP are on 7% with voters in the English Midlands and Wales
UKIP are on 6% in the south of England

(UKIP are on 2% in Scotland)

* This is the best opinion poll for UKIP for some time.

The Conservatives get their highest share of support in London where people are sick and tired of europhile Labour leftist Mayor Livingstone - a 46% share

The Conservatives are also ahead across the UK in the 18 - 34 age category - 38% to Labour's 33%

The Conservatives are lowest in the YouGov poll in Scotland where they get a 19% share, and in the 35 to 54 age group (30% share) and in the north of England (30% share).

The europhile Liberal Dims get their highest support among females (19% share) and in the north of England (19%).

The poll puts the Fiberal Dims on 18% nationally - 5% down on the last General Election :twisted: .

eublues

This is very encouraging. Let's hope it can be maintained.

harryaldridge

Very encouraging indeed. This back up the ICM poll in December that showed good UKIP support. Also interesting in this poll is that it shows again that we receive a higher level of support from C2DE voters than ABC1.

I think that considering where we are in the election cycle these figures are immensly encouraging. Normally you would expect the media to be reporting on the fights between the lib/lab/con in westminster but instead they seem to have a broader horizon at present.

The key is consistency. We must keep support at this level and if we do then we might start to be included in the general polls (i.e. where normally there are tory, labour, libs and others we need to get to the point where the polls show tory, labour, libs, UKIP and others)

Britannist

It's a very high vote for UKIP in the English Midlands/Wales. 7%.

Within the English Midlands/Wales catchment area used by YouGov it is possible that UKIP could actually be on about 9 or even 10% with support much lower in Wales.

For UKIP to be getting 5% nationally and at least 7% in the English Midlands at a time when it has had no publicity in most tabloid newspapers; no party political broadcasts; no news coverage and hardly any UKIP leaflets having been sent to homes is actually a real achievement for the party.

The Midlands of England contain alot of marginal constituencies held by Labour.

Recent criticism of UKIP by certain pro-EU people in the Conservative Party might be because their own private polling has shown that anti-EU and strongly eurosceptic Conservatives in the English Midland marginal constituencies have been switching their support to UKIP.

SGK

The question is 'why?' - and that to an endless host of facts that I see when I look at those percentages.
For example, why, when (according to various polls) a great many people want out of the EU or at least are euro-sceptic, and the UKIP is the one party that reflects that, are only 5% prepared to make that their election statement? More to the point, why are half prepared to vote pro-EU - even accepting that people are fooled into believing the Tories are anti?
Why, despite the mess the country is in, are so many people still prepared to vote for Labour?
Why do more women support the Lib Dems?
Why do the Scots think that Labour holds the answer for them?

And so on. Only with clear answers to these and many more questions can any progress be made towards getting out of the EU.
Unfortunately, as things stand, these figures simply convince me that UKIP is not the means to achieve EU withdrawal.

Britannist

For those readers who don't know, C2DE voters are the ones who tend to determine which party wins a marginal constituency. Some call the C2DE category "the skilled working class".

If UKIP is doing well in the C2DE category this will enormously worrying to the europhile political parties :twisted: .

rjt

The answer is that elections are not just fought on one issue, I should imagine if it were UKIP would have a 300 seat majority.

People want to know what UKIP would do with the health service, education system, transport etc etc.

And they will not go looking for the answers they expect UKIP to get out there and tell them. That applies to any minority party.

Britannist

The Liberals in the 1950's won about 6 seats in the Commons on a 2% national share of the vote.

UKIP needs to target its best seats.

I think a 7% UKIP vote share in the English Midlands/Wales is a good result for UKIP considering the party has been out of the news for some time and hasn't had any major leaflet drops there.

When UKIP is in the news and its constituency organisations have been improved its vote will increase.

Britannist

I agree. UKIP must broaden its policy base. And it must see if an agreement to avoid vote-splitting can be reached with the English Democrats (so the two parties don't run in the same wards/seats).