Daily Mail

22ANDUK · 12-01-2007, 06:48 PM

Andrew Alexander in his Daily Mail coloumn today (Fri 12th) reported on the danger UKIP could pose Cameron's Conservatives.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/liv..._author_id=248

Quote:

Reading or listening to much of political comment these days, you get the impression that it is the most natural thing in the world to hate the Conservative Party.

Curiously, this is not because of the run-of-the-mill, inter-party abuse which is commonplace and generally ineffective. It is, rather, a notion spread by the Conservatives themselves, or, more specifically, the Cameron wing.

When these people are not actually running down the party and its history, they are briefing journalists along these lines.

So a generation of voters is growing up with the belief that the Tories are a bad lot by their own admission and nothing but penance and apology can make them worthy of election, if then.

There is alongside this the real problem with the previous generation, say, up to the age of 40, that few of them have much notion of what life was like pre-Thatcher - when income tax could be up to 98 per cent, the daily diet of news was of strikes, strikes, strikes and Britain was seen as the economically sick man of Europe.

"Surely not 98pc!" even a Treasury official said to me, until he checked and found this was so.

Yet we find leading Tories still apologising for the Thatcher years and the wonderful transformation it brought about. It is a spectacular own goal.

We are told, though fewer and fewer now believe it, that David Cameron's great skill lies in 'marketing'.

Yet even the dimmest practitioner of that art knows that it is a great mistake to start any campaign by apologising for a product.

If some retailer says that, honestly, we are now looking at the quality of our fruit and vegetables and we really will make improvements, then you would be foolish not to believe that there was something seriously wrong with them in the first place and that you should buy from him with caution, if indeed at all.

This self-abasing line is, of course, an obvious kick in the teeth for the party's foot soldiers who have been proud to do all those thankless tasks at and between elections.

But it has long been part of the new Conservative approach that there is no need to worry too much about these people or, indeed, the traditional hard core of Tory electors because they have nowhere else to go and no one else to vote for.

But as we have been reminded this week, there is UKIP. It has had a modest fillip with the defection to it of a couple of traditional Tory peers: Lord Pearson of Rannoch and Lord Willoughby de Broke.

This gives UKIP its first voices at Westminister, having won seats only in the European Parliament hitherto.

There is a fair chance that four more peers, one Labour, one Tory and two cross-benchers may join the drift reasonably soon. This is no political landslide. But for UKIP it does not need to be; it has high leverage.

Its total vote may have been small in the last contest but is thought to have cost the Tories between 20 and 30 Parliamentary seats, again small beer in the grand scheme of things.

But on present trends, it could cost the Tory Party maybe half as many again. In a close contest, that could keep Cameron out of No10.

But UKIP is prepared to offer a deal. It will not oppose any MP of any party who signs up to the 'Better Off Out' declaration, which says we should leave the European Union. MPs have until July to sign, after which UKIP will start selecting candidates.

That will be harsh enough, even though the number of Tories who agree in their heart of hearts with the proposition is substantial. To sign up will effectively bar them from the Tory front bench.

Moreover, Cameron himself has dismissed UKIP as made up of 'fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists'. He does seem to enjoy offending natural Tory supporters, doesn't he?

UKIP also plans to monitor the signatories to the declaration - some politicians will sign anything for a few votes. The MPs will be required to act as if they meant it.

The odd call for this or that amendment to the Treaty or the new Constitution will not be enough. It has, you must agree, interesting possibilities.

And for a bonus I'll throw in the two comments, because I like you.

Quote:

UKIP has done well in just 13 years of existence. And the future? We see how the dreaded EU Constitution is very much alive while the main three parties pretend it doesn't exist. Thankfully, UKIP are very much prepared to fight this and should welcome every offer of help it can get.

- Jens Winton, London, UK

Mr Cameron seems to be hellbent on becoming another "former Tory Leader" without even firing a shot in the direction of the enemy.

The enemy,in this case being,our own untrustworthy Government along with the increasingly Communist styled European Union.

All Cameron and the Conservatives need to do to win the next General Election, (along with all the General Elections after that),and the everlasting love and gratitude of the vast majority of the British people, is to state that he will withdraw the UK from the European Union upon winning said Election.

The fact that not one of the three main parties will withdraw the UK from the EU,except little UKIP,must say volumes about what is on offer to those who keep us in it.

Obviously,they don't do it for the power they get, because, that power would still come to them if we were out of the EU,therefore,they must be doing it for something else,could it be the vast financial sums that are passed around openly in the EU?

Hmmm!

- Art Lee-Pool, Hartlepool,England.

eublues · 12-01-2007, 07:10 PM

Glad to see this article presents the UKIP position carefully and accurately.

Four more peers would be great.

Britannist · 12-01-2007, 08:00 PM

I might be wrong on this, but weren't the Conservatives pretty close to having a majority (with all other parties and crossbenchers) over Labour in the Lords.

I'm sure that Labour has an overall majority in the Lords - but a small one.

Two defections from the Conservatives to UKIP in the Lords with the Labour majority so small are significant.

More defections to UKIP from the Conservative benches in the House of Lords may not worry the Conservative Party in the Commons too much - but they will make the leadership of the Conservatives in the Lords most displeased.

The EU issue will not go away.

Tom Wilde · 12-01-2007, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Britannist

I might be wrong on this, but weren't the Conservatives pretty close to having a majority (with all other parties and crossbenchers) over Labour in the Lords.

So far as I can tell, no party is even close to having majority in the Lords at present (though that means that Tories with all other parties and crossbenchers do indeed have more peers than Labour).

I've looked at the Wikipedia article on the House of Lords, which gives the totals by party. I think we should treat the totals with some caution. For instance, I understand that the DUP have three peers, but they aren't even mentioned on this list, so who knows what other inaccuracies there might be? Nonetheless, we can probably treat it as an approximate guide. The Wikipedia page is here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords

And the party totals it gives are as follows:

Labour 212
Conservatives 206
Lib Dems 78
UKIP 2
Green 1
Crossbenchers 201
Non-affiliated 11
Lords Spiritual 26

TOTAL 737

I agree with Britannist to this extent: the Tories would probably receive an important psychological boost from becoming once again the largest single party in the Lords. Until a few days ago, they were only four peers short of parity with Labour. Now the gap has widenned to six, which must be frustrating for them.

Britannist · 12-01-2007, 09:47 PM

Thank you for those figures Tom.

Some people would say that the Conservatives (led by pro-EU and anti-UKIP David Cameron) - as an opposition during this time when the Blair Labour regime is so unpopular - should be on the receiving end of defections and not the other way around.

When Mrs. (now Lady) Thatcher was Leader of the Opposition (in the late 1970's) defections to the Conservative party she led were fairly regular.

She would probably have secured enough defections to make the Conservatives the largest party in the Lords (on the basis of the above figures).

12-01-2007, 08:00 PM	#3 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 23,172	Defections to UKIP significant in Lords where voting close I might be wrong on this, but weren't the Conservatives pretty close to having a majority (with all other parties and crossbenchers) over Labour in the Lords. I'm sure that Labour has an overall majority in the Lords - but a small one. Two defections from the Conservatives to UKIP in the Lords with the Labour majority so small are significant. More defections to UKIP from the Conservative benches in the House of Lords may not worry the Conservative Party in the Commons too much - but they will make the leadership of the Conservatives in the Lords most displeased. The EU issue will not go away.

12-01-2007, 09:47 PM	#5 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 23,172	Conservatives and defections to UKIP in the Lords Thank you for those figures Tom. Some people would say that the Conservatives (led by pro-EU and anti-UKIP David Cameron) - as an opposition during this time when the Blair Labour regime is so unpopular - should be on the receiving end of defections and not the other way around. When Mrs. (now Lady) Thatcher was Leader of the Opposition (in the late 1970's) defections to the Conservative party she led were fairly regular. She would probably have secured enough defections to make the Conservatives the largest party in the Lords (on the basis of the above figures).

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12-01-2007, 07:10 PM	#2 (permalink)
eublues Uber Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 3,194	Glad to see this article presents the UKIP position carefully and accurately. Four more peers would be great.