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Old 03-05-2006, 02:06 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default UKIP predict local election gains

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4965862.stm

Quote:
UKIP predict local election gains

The UK Independence Party, which favours withdrawal from the EU, predicts it will win 15 to 20 seats in Thursday's local council elections.
A spokesman said the party's activists hoped for a good result in Barking and Dagenham, and in Hartlepool where they came third in a 2004 by-election.

UKIP are fielding 320 candidates across the country for the local English poll.

"We hope to pick up 15-20 seats but may do better given the mess the main parties are in," said the spokesman.

UKIP officials estimate they currently have between 30 and 50 district and borough councillors.

They say they cannot give an exact figure because the issue is in the hands of local UKIP branches rather than the party centrally.

Some of the party's councillors defected to it, rather than being elected in its colours.

A UKIP spokesman said this year's local elections were "preparatory to the big ones next year".

About 4,360 council seats are up for grabs in England on Thursday, including all of London councils.
If you look hard enough you will see a very different prediction for UKIP by a senior party official & member of this forum, here: http://www.vote-2006.co.uk/
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Old 03-05-2006, 02:13 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Default Re: UKIP predict local election gains

Quote:
Originally Posted by Independent UKIP
If you look hard enough you will see a very different prediction for UKIP by a senior party official & member of this forum, here: http://www.vote-2006.co.uk/
Can you provide a link please?
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Old 03-05-2006, 03:06 PM   #3 (permalink)
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On reflection the phrase 'very different' is a little bit unfair. I think it would have been better I if had written 'different' or 'rather different'.

http://www.vote-2006.co.uk/index.php?topic=229.15
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Old 05-05-2006, 12:31 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Default UKIP predictions

I wonder what sort of crystal ball UKIP spokesmen use if they can predict 15-20 gains, and end up with 1 or 2! (especially the bit about their prospects in Barking & Dagenham - incredible that UKIP hierarchy actually believe their own hype!).
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Old 05-05-2006, 05:29 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Default Re: UKIP predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by girlfriday
I wonder what sort of crystal ball UKIP spokesmen use if they can predict 15-20 gains, and end up with 1 or 2! (especially the bit about their prospects in Barking & Dagenham - incredible that UKIP hierarchy actually believe their own hype!).
In ctual fact, if you look at the results for Barking and Dagenham, UKIP weren't a million miles away. If New Labour hadn't given the BNP a puff, and then had it amplified by the media, it could have been rather different. Similarly, in Hartlepool, Newcastle under Lyme, Dudley, we were very close indeed.

Excellent work by all involved on the ground, there and elsewhere.

Rgds

Mark
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Old 05-05-2006, 05:55 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Default It was a let down.

I fail to be chipper about this election. In the Whitefoot ward in Lewisham (I was the only UKIPper standing in this borough) I scored 281 votes, beating the Greens but behind everyone else.

Without a proper local organisation on the ground, I think it is a waste of time to contest these elections, and until one is in place, I will no longer stand for any candidacy in future. I once saw some merit in being a paper candidate but while I did ensure every home in my ward got a hand delivered leaflet, as well as undertake door-to-door canvassing per estate (where I was in most instances, the only candidate people saw), symbolism needs substance to shine. And there was none of that in my borough.

The Lib-Dems had that in my ward, and deservedly won the three seats. Although they had a mediocre result nationally, they did well in Lewisham.

Until UKIP is prepared to match the Lib-Dems in being locally active: Monthly (when in an election year, quarterly otherwise) newsletters printed and distributed by a group of volunteers, consistent pressure being exerted to get answers from the Council, and being involved in organising local pressure groups, we will go on being a fourth-rate party.

Had it not been for my involvement in a fledgling social housing project from last year in Lewisham, I would have liked to have been more active UKIP-wise. It is this project I shall return to now as a target for my spare time as I am more confident (as I was last year) that my energies would be better spent in delivering real value for the community.

As a young member of the party, had a cohesive local UKIP structure been on the ground, it would have been harder for me to divert my attention elsewhere after last year's General Election.

But it gets a bit weary to muster the committment when there is not even a structure to place that committment to. I also, like many of you, work full-time, overtime at times, as a sole earner for a family of four. There's only so much that one person can offer.

And I daresay that this could apply in many of the wards where we performed miserably.

Come on head office, give us leadership! Work those rolodexes of the titled members! Create some buzz even if you have to recruit UKIP Man in His Van to corner celebrities into holding up the UKIP logo and film them squirming for viral videos for the `Net. Anything as long as I feel I'm not alone out there.
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Old 05-05-2006, 07:35 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Default Re: It was a let down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lewkip

Without a proper local organisation on the ground, I think it is a waste of time to contest these elections, and until one is in place, I will no longer stand for any candidacy in future. I once saw some merit in being a paper candidate but while I did ensure every home in my ward got a hand delivered leaflet, as well as undertake door-to-door canvassing per estate (where I was in most instances, the only candidate people saw), symbolism needs substance to shine. And there was none of that in my borough.
I did suggest at the time it was announced that we were to fight the local elections, that it appeared to be a distraction by the leadership to divert all the flak they were getting because of their inactivity.

I agree, if it is not going to be done properly then it should not be done at all.
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Old 06-05-2006, 08:38 AM   #8 (permalink)
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Default UKIP under threat

Despite what Mark Croucher says about UKIP in B & D, UKIP is being eclipsed by the BNP, especially in London as the fourth party. Where the BNP stands, it IS the fourth party (when it doesn't win or come second etc). Just last year, it was reported that during the London assembly elections, 1 in 5 UKIP voters put the BNP as their second choice.

Virtually everywhere, UKIP is being beaten by the BNP, doesn't that tell UKIP SOMETHING about its prospects if it can be beaten by a "right wing neo-nazi party"?

There is virtually nothing UKIP can do now to change their situation, other than change the party name and that will not ensure anything. It has buried itself in a ghetto of anti-EU federalism to the exception of everything else. It has willingly joined forces with anti-BNP groups so identifying itself as just target for ridicule by the BNP. UKIP's main website cannot even admit that UKIP LOST a seat this Thursday, and badly so, in the Wirral.

How many seats in Barking & Dagenham did UKIP come second? How many seats ANYWHERE did UKIP come second? The BNP came second in 70 seats, can UKIP equal that?

It is likely that UKIP will face an exodus of support now either to the BNP or to the English Democrats. The English Democrats, amazingly, came second in one ward, and beat either the BNP, UKIP or the Greens in other wards. Their overall performance (I don't go with this English Nationalist evaluation that is on the EDP website as it is VERY misleading) for a relatively unknown and new party is extremly promising.
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Old 06-05-2006, 10:28 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Default Re: UKIP under threat

Quote:
Originally Posted by girlfriday
Virtually everywhere, UKIP is being beaten by the BNP, doesn't that tell UKIP SOMETHING about its prospects if it can be beaten by a "right wing neo-nazi party"?

There is virtually nothing UKIP can do now to change their situation, other than change the party name and that will not ensure anything. It has buried itself in a ghetto of anti-EU federalism to the exception of everything else. It has willingly joined forces with anti-BNP groups so identifying itself as just target for ridicule by the BNP. UKIP's main website cannot even admit that UKIP LOST a seat this Thursday, and badly so, in the Wirral.
The reason that BNP do so well, where they stand, is the voters are fed up with mass immigration [76% in last survey I saw] particularly in areas which seem to have been designated for them. The locals find that they are vitually second class citizens. BNP are considered a racist party [I do not know if this is the case - they played it down in the interviews I saw yesterday].

If UKIP want to supplant BNP they must have a clear and effective non racist policy on immigration - they must also proclaim it! Clearly if 76% believe immigration is too high there are many who would vote BNP but for their racist image - these would have no problem voting UKIP.
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Old 06-05-2006, 10:56 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Default Re: UKIP under threat

[quote="Millennium3"][quote="girlfriday"]


If UKIP want to supplant BNP they must have a clear and effective non racist policy on immigration quote]

I thought UKIP had one? Only my opinion but, I don't think UKIP make a big enough play on Immigration and I think the reason is because they are terrified our enemies will then have a chance of claiming we are racist!
We have not shown Joe Public the link between the the EU and Immigration! Because we are slaves to the EU our borders are non existent allowing the World and his wife to troop in here!
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