Britannist

UKIP are fielding about 250 - 300 local council candidates for next month's local elections.

How many seats do you expect UKIP to win next month (in the local elections). There's a poll at the top of this page - I hope you'll vote. Thank you.

The options in the poll above are for net gains or losses.

It is estimated that UKIP has up to 30 councillors elected as UKIP or people who have come across to UKIP from other parties.

GTFC_Adam

Two weeks ago , when we were crawling anonymously INTO phpbb_these elections, I'd have said 20-30. But following the recent burst of publicity that has seen many letters in the papers backing UKIP I think we can aim a bit higher. My guess is 45 - mostly in southern counties.

Britannist

Are you prepared to put your money where your mouth is and have a flutter on that down at the bookmakers? I wonder what the odds are .

BASILDON BOY

How many seats are we standing in? Anybody got an exact number yet?

Alex McKee

I think one or two seats is likely, but we might lose some where we currently have councillors. So I think we may end up with no net gain or a net loss.

Kerry Smith

There are 319 candidates standing for UKIP this May.

Without blowing my own trumpet, the ward I am standing in (Mayesbrook) all eyes should fall on.

Canvassing to date has delivered over 600 UKIP pledges in the ward and only 650 actual UKIP votes will beat Labour in the Ward.

Today I was out delivering leaflets in the rain without a rosette and I was stopped two times. The first was an ex-Labour voter who told me he was voting UKIP. The other person told me a Labour Councillor he drinks with has told him to vote for my goodself.

I have lost count on the amount of ex-Labour members/supporters who have said they are now switching to UKIP this May.

If anyone fancies a flutter at the bookies, place a bet on a UKIP gain in Barking & Dagenham.

Britannist

Thrash Labour - they deserve it. Dagenham was once held by the staunchly eurosceptic Labour MP Brian Gould. Clearly a decent chap on the EU issue (now living in New Zealand). Since he left Dagenham Labour have just reverted to type - a disgusting europhile party led by a treacherous stinking rich pro-EU metro-'elite' :evil: :x :shock: .

Independent UKIP

I recall a discussion some months ago on this and repeat (I think) that I really hope you are successful but am not so confident it will happen. The mass media are certainly confident that the BNP will do well in Barking & Dagenham; which despite the nature of the reporting probably will help or at least not damage the BNP.

Maybe saying that "I'll vote UKIP" is an easy way of saying I won't vote labcon but aren't prepared to admit to considering voting BNP.

I have just looked at the 2002 results for your ward and see that the liedems were 16 and 30 votes to taking 2 of the 3 labour seats. And the liedems are not standing at all in 2006??? With the Tories standing now and not in 2002 this ward looks like one big stitch up between the 3 main parties to stop the BNP. I really don't like the BNP at all so you & your colleagues better beat labour, bnp and tory just as you predict so UKIP can have at least 3 B & D councillors, all just to prove me totally wrong.

TheVoiceOfReason

Canvass returns are notoriously unreliable. These votes can often melt away by polling day.

I think UKIP will make net losses; the party is still at the stage where they are not regarded as credible unless there are concurrent European elections.

Part of the problem is the reluctance of many UKIP members, and particularly senior officials and representatives, to run a campaign beyond the odd press release and interview. I know a few people who post on this forum are out there, working hard, but I reckon there are plenty more name-on-the-ballot-sheet-only campaigns.

If you can get hold of them, you could do worse than look at a series of articles written in the BNP's house magazine Identity by Eddy Butler (unfortunately back issues are notoriously difficult to get hold of). Butler has been the architect of most of the BNP's electoral successes, in the face of much more concerted opposition than UKIP has ever faced, and his articles are non-policy oriented, but directed towards the tasks that need to be performed when standing in elections. For example, if a candidate cannot guarantee to at least leaflet every home once in any election, he is not allowed to stand for the party. Even one leaflet to each home picks up a few votes, and prevents the embarrassing single figure totals that a couple of UKIP election candidates have delivered. Butler reckons the ideal is to leaflet every home in the ward (at least) four times, beginning four weeks before the election. All leaflets must be different, and if possible at least half should be locally produced to reflect local concerns. In addition, the entire ward should be canvassed - ideally twice; the first time about 1-2 weeks before polling day, the second 1-2 days. That means every home in the ward will be visited 6 times in the month prior to polling. Obviously, with its limited manpower, the BNP have rarely achieved that, but when they have, they have returned some very good results (close to this effort was made in Epping Forest last time around, resulting in three unexpected victories). UKIP, with five times the membership and fewer candidates at this election, ought easily to be able to leaflet and canvass according to Butler's model. But, perhaps with a few honourable exceptions, does anyone seriously think they will?

Aardvark

It all depends on the size of the ward. It also depends on financial resources. I'm putting out 2000 home produced leaflets - 1 per house. That's all I can afford. I might be able to do some flyers fo the day before the election. It's all out of my pocket and down to the efforts of a very small group of people.

Canvassing will take a lot of time. It won't be helped by the fact that the Easter holidays are happening and most people won't be visited even if I knock every door. Still there's only me and a Tory so I should get a few votes.