How may seats will UKIP win next month - poll

andypandy · 08-06-2006, 12:16 AM

33% - a majority? Surely the biggest minority! Anyway, wasn't there a section with a no overall gain? UKIP did after all, lose one seat and gained one seat, so overall, none gained?

andypandy · 08-06-2006, 12:17 AM

Oh, yes, None - 13%, that would count as no overall gain (depending how one defines 'none')

mkpdavies · 08-06-2006, 12:19 AM

That's not what the poll asked.

andypandy · 08-06-2006, 12:25 AM

Very true, but still, the silence is deafening after the dust had settled. I am just surprised how little further comment was made, in fact, no further comment was made until now. I know other subjects crop-up, but suppose I just assumed there might be some discussion as to why the results no way matched peoples' expectations for UKIP. I mean, 1-9 strictly gives an average of 5, so a gain of one and a loss of one, leaves nothing. Simple mathematics.

Perhaps I am reading too much into this.

mkpdavies · 08-06-2006, 12:45 AM

Most people knew we were going to do ****, so were not surprised when we did.

New leadership needs to be in place before we go any further.

Independent UKIP · 08-06-2006, 01:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by andypandy

Perhaps I am reading too much into this.

Yes, you are reading too much into this. There was loads of discussion after the election on the results. I am one of the minority who consider that UKIP did quite well at those elections. The full results have never been posted here though will be posted by me when I get round to finishing a bit of analysis on them.

On that poll. 24% underestimated the UKIP performance. 33% matched the UKIP performance. From memory I voted in the 33% group thinking that UKIP might win one or two seats. I suspect most people who voted there shared that view as there were only a very few number of seats UKIP could plausibly win. Note that the UKIP local election coordinator made a post on another forum which I linked to a long time ago predicting somewhere between 0 and a couple of hopeful UKIP wins. The 5 average is only in your head & not based in reality. mkpdavies is right that the majority were accurate in their prediction. There was no PR/STV/AV etc in the poll.

View Poll Results: How many seats do you think UKIP will win in the May 2006 Local Elections?
250 or more	1	2.13%
150 to 249	0	0%
100 to 149	1	2.13%
50 to 99	5	10.64%
20 to 49	7	14.89%
10 to 19	6	12.77%
1 to 9	16	34.04%
None	6	12.77%
UKIP will lose seats (net loss)	5	10.64%
Don't Know/No View/Undecided	0	0%
Voters: 47. You may not vote on this poll

08-06-2006, 12:19 AM	#53 (permalink)
mkpdavies Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Woking Posts: 31,182 Party: Libertarian Party	That's not what the poll asked. __________________ http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems

08-06-2006, 12:45 AM	#55 (permalink)
mkpdavies Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Woking Posts: 31,182 Party: Libertarian Party	Most people knew we were going to do ****, so were not surprised when we did. New leadership needs to be in place before we go any further. __________________ http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems

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08-06-2006, 12:16 AM	#51 (permalink)
andypandy Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 880	33% - a majority? Surely the biggest minority! Anyway, wasn't there a section with a no overall gain? UKIP did after all, lose one seat and gained one seat, so overall, none gained?

08-06-2006, 12:17 AM	#52 (permalink)
andypandy Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 880	Oh, yes, None - 13%, that would count as no overall gain (depending how one defines 'none')

08-06-2006, 12:25 AM	#54 (permalink)
andypandy Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 880	Very true, but still, the silence is deafening after the dust had settled. I am just surprised how little further comment was made, in fact, no further comment was made until now. I know other subjects crop-up, but suppose I just assumed there might be some discussion as to why the results no way matched peoples' expectations for UKIP. I mean, 1-9 strictly gives an average of 5, so a gain of one and a loss of one, leaves nothing. Simple mathematics. Perhaps I am reading too much into this.