Matt O'Grady

Most of the Plaid literature I've seen has been fairly poor, but I understand they are actually running some very effecient youth campaigns through the "Cymru X" organisation.

Plaid will lose votes this time around, and they won't go to Labour. The question is, will it be us or the Tories that benefit from it?

BASILDON BOY

The tories are eating INTO phpbb_LibDem votes by Cameroon shifting the tories to the centre ground - hence Ming and his 'nasty right wing' rant.

Ming is worried and is attempting to 'hold the line'

People are not inspired by the LibDem leadership - he appears stale compared to Cameroon. Will be interesting to see what the election results are after May 4th!

Matt O'Grady

I really don't think Cameroon has made any impact with people. The main problem is that he hasn't announced any real policies yet. What will happen is that if he announces traditional Tory policies, he will lose any "liberal" support he has (which I don't believe exists) and if he annouces "liberal" policies, he will lose traditional Tory voters.

The Conservative Party is in terminal deline. Their politics are no longer relevent to this Country. Their support is literally dying off (from old age) and they are not going to be able to turn themselves around in the same way Labour did in the late 80's/Early 90's.

I will admit though, I wish I'd given my first preference to Huhne now.

Britannist

Happy Easter. Yes, Basildon Boy - the May local election results will be interesting. I shall certainly stay up that night to watch the television coverage and also listen to the results on the radio, too.

I feel that the Conservative Party will do well in London. They are working quite hard. I've already had them on the door and I've been told they've canvassed others in this area too.

You mentioned Ming, the Liberal 'Democrat' leader. I think his attack on the Conservatives was unnecessary from his own point of view. What does it achieve for his own party? It just tells voters that here's yet another politician just having a go at another party. He should be talking about what he and his party are going to do.

All the voters see is a Liberal 'Democrat' saying that the Conservative Party is nasty - a week after the Conservative Party leader has said that UKIP are fruitcakes. I really do not think any of this impresses the average voter. But Labour are happy if its opposition is bickering :x .

BASILDON BOY

The 'dying' off thing is just an often repeated soundbite. The Tories membership has just increased by 20,000.

Labour have lost half their membership - and recent research shows the average Labour members age is just six months less than the average Tory!

If OAP Ming the useless wasn't so worried about the Tories he wouldnt have spent time attacking them as 'nasty' and 'right wing'.

Obviously LibDem polling is showing the Tories startng to eat INTO phpbb_core LibDem support!

A 'Liberal' tory party with the prospect of formikng the next government?

Or an uninspiring LibDem party tainted with sleaze and no hope of forming the next Government?

People usually back a winner!

Matt O'Grady

I was unaware the Lib Dems had "core support", thats half our problem!

I am seriously not worried about this so called "Conservative revival" we've heard it all before after the election of the last leader. This one might be a bit younger, but he's just as full of hot air and empty promises.

And one sex scandal doesn't make us "tainted with sleaze". It just makes Mark Oaten a tosser, which most of us had been saying for a while anyway.

But if you wanna talk about age, then we're the party with real young activists and a bright future, four out of five of the youngest MP's and then you look at individual branches such as Swansea, where we have six members on the executive all under the age of 27, and this is not an isolated case!

Britannist

M.O.G. wrote above at 5.29 am: The Conservative Party - their support is literally dying off (from old age) and they are not going to be able to turn themselves around in the same way Labour did in the late 80's/Early 90's.

My response: I would have to say that the membership of the Conservative Party has actually gone up to 300, 000. Too much is made of old members and I could accuse those of talking in this way as being ageist. All that happens is that old members who sadly pass on or who don't renew membership is that new old members come along!

As for M.O.G.s claim that the Conservative Party is in terminal decline and can't be turned around like Labour was in the late 80's. May I say that it was Baroness Williams (former leader of the Lib 'Dem's in the Lords) who said when she joined the SDP (after leaving Labour) that there "will never again be a majority Labour Government in this country again". That foolish remark may have damaged her credibility. For Labour did, of course, come back with a gigantic majority in 1997.

The Conservative Party was described a few weeks ago at the Welsh Labour Conference by Peter Hain MP as the most effective fighting machine of any political party in the world. He warned those who tried to write the Conservative Party off. Likewise, when Conservative supporters I knew were mocking Labour during the electorally unsuccessful time it was led by Foot/Kinnock I advised them not to get so cocky and that Labour would recover. I was right (if I may say so) and I predict that the Conservative Party will 'come back' to. It came within 2.9% of Labour in the national vote share at last May's General Election. If the Liberal 'Democrats' had managed that I bet M.O.G. (who has just posted above) would not be saying they were in terminal decline (as he has done this morning about the Conservatives).

Regarding M.O.G.'s wish that he'd voted for Huhne. Forgetting party politics I have to say that I prefer Sir Menzies Campbell ('Ming') as a person (as far as I can tell by watching him on the television). I don't like Huhne at all and I don't think that he is worth more votes to the Lib 'Dems' at the next General Election than 'Ming' is. I hope that we don't have some form of ageism creeping in here. Just because 'Ming' is 64 does not mean he can't do the job. Churchill was in his 70's the last time he stood in a General Election (which he won, by the way).

Britannist

M.O.G. wrote at 5.40 am: But if you wanna talk about age, then we're the party with real young activists and a bright future, four out of five of the youngest MP's and then you look at individual branches such as Swansea, where we have six members on the executive all under the age of 27, and this is not an isolated case!

My reply: I heard this sort of talk 20 years ago. It's quite wrong actually. Again forgetting party politics - let me say that the other parties should not try to ape Blair's ridiculous 'Cool Britannia' image (now shunned and regarded as hugely embarrassing). Just because a branch has young members doesn't mean they'll stay in the party. As for M.O.G.s boast about having some of the youngest MP's. Yes, one of them was that awful Sarah Teather who got in as an MP at Brent thanks to Charles Kennedy visiting and helping her campaign. She went on to become a member of the group that forced Charles Kennedy out. Nice girl. I hope she loses her seat at the next General Election and am fairly sure she will. Just like the other 49 Liberal 'Dems' who have majorities under 1000! So that's at least another 50 Conservative MP's at the next General Election and two or three new Labour MP's winning seats from people like Teather.

M.O.G. - do you really think all this talk of young members is a good thing in view of the fact that the electorate includes a far larger group of older people? :shock:

Matt O'Grady

The thing is that Labour were able to completly reposition themselves as a Party and move towards the centre ground which wasn't occupied at the time, nor really had been before.

Now, Cameroon is faced with the choice of moving right, and the Conservatives will remain where they are now, moving left to try and gain "liberal" support, which probably won't work and will just alienate traditional Tory voters, or move to the centre ground, and gain nothing because Labour are already there anyway.

The only way out for the Conservative Party is to come up with some original ideas and proposals that no-one else has to offer, which isn't going to be achieved by the same man who wrote the 2005 manifesto.

And my problem with Campbell isn't age, I voted for him! My problem is he really hasn't made an impact since becoming leader, and some of his performances have hardly been world class. I just think now that maybe Huhne could of provided the dynamism to of really hit the ball out of the park if he was elected.

Matt O'Grady

Teather was re-elected in 2005, and will be re-elected in 2009/2010.


The way that we are going to get young people to vote isn't through things like "cool britannia" or any other gimmick. It will be by showing young people that they can be a part of the system in this country and that politics matters to them. And that is what the Liberal Democrats are doing.