UKIP YouGov survey results

Anthony Butcher · 11-08-2005, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Dear All,

I hope that you are all enjoying the month of August after a pretty hectic eighteen months in UKIP.

Some of you may have seen recent media reports about an opinion poll that we have conducted recently. I am keen that you should see the full results.

YouGov survey results: Sample size: 2299: Fieldwork: 22nd to 25th July 2005.

Q1. Do you think a national referendum should be held on whether the United Kingdom should or should not remain a member of the European Union?

Referendum should be held 62%

Referendum not necessary 25%

Don’t know 12%

Q2. If a referendum were held, and these were the available options, which would you go for?

Britain leaving the European Union and replacing

our membership with a free trade agreement 50%

Britain remaining a member of the European Union 34%

Don’t know 17%

For the first time since early 1975 there is a clear majority for leaving the EU. UKIP should rejoice at this news and be aware that without us this could never have happened.

In mid-September we will be launching a national petition to the government demanding that the British people be given a referendum. The timing could not be better as there is a strong appetite to have a vote on this subject. In terms of changing the political agenda this is by far our most important campaign. The initial sponsorship came from our group in the European Parliament, the Independence and Democracy Group. After the French and Dutch results it is clear that right across the continent ordinary decent people are rejecting the EU model. I will give you more details nearer the time but please get ready for a massive petition gathering exercise. Remember that in 2003 we launched a petition to call for a referendum on the EU constitution, it led to Mr Blair’s change of heart and added thousands of new members to UKIP.

It is likely that we will launch this campaign in mid-September with a press conference and an on-line petition site. All UKIP branches will be provided card style leaflets for distribution and banners for petition stalls free of charge.

This should be our biggest ever ad campaign to date and will shift the political agenda.

Nigel Farage MEP

I hate to be pedantic about this, but 50% is not a clear majority. It is not even a majority. 51% would count as a majority, and possibly 60% as a "clear majority".

However, the results aren't too bad. I had hoped for more than 50%, but with 17% undecided there is some room for manoeuvre.

jp · 11-08-2005, 07:55 PM

"A clear majority of those expressing an opinion" would seem OK

Britannist · 12-08-2005, 06:19 AM

The europhiles have been lying for over a quarter of a century – “3 million jobs depend on EU membership…” and so on. So I'm not too worried about the claim that 50% for EU withdrawal constitutes majority support.

When YouGov says 50% favour EU withdrawal, I do wonder if this is the exact and precise figure. Was it perhaps 50.001% and, therefore, technically a majority of those questioned?

I’m sure that within the English part of the UK YouGov found a clear majority for EU withdrawal. Did YouGov give a breakdown for England only?

The problem with 50% (as in the YouGov poll) is that in a straight Yes or No question on EU membership in a UK-wide referendum – the larger europhile vote in Scotland (where hostility to the EU is presently less) could be the deciding factor which tips the balance in favour of a narrow ‘Yes’ to stay in the EU (even if England votes ‘No’ to the EU in a UK-wide referendum).

It’s the exact opposite situation in Switzerland – where the largely EU-hostile majority German-speaking sector keeps Switzerland out of the EU.

To be sure of a No vote in a UK referendum on EU membership, much more work needs to be dome to persuade the Scottish of how the EU is damaging their country. The Scottish media is heavily biased in favour of the EU (nationalist elements see the EU as a useful tool to undermine the unity of the UK).

The Livingston By-Election (The Late Robin Cook’s now vacant seat) seems a good place to start the task of promoting the anti-EU case north of the border. UKIP should field a good candidate at Livingston and campaign on:

***The disgraceful decision of the europhile Lab/LD Scottish Executive to give a ship-building order to Poland in compliance with the EU procurement rule causing a probable loss of jobs at the Port Glasgow ship-building yard

***Exposure of the pro-euro Scottish National Party (SNP) as a bogus nationalist party – one that claims to be patriotic but which would transfer sovereign powers over Scotland from Westminster directly to the EU

***The threat to the Scottish Pound with Labour, SNP and Kennedy’s Laboural ‘Democrats’ all committed to getting rid of it and bringing in the euro

***Exposure of the hypocritical stance of the SNP in supporting the EU and all its works for the last three decades and now suddenly coming out against the EU fishing policy (the SNP only doing this, cynically, to avoid electoral damage to itself due to the EU having wrecked the Scottish fishing fleet deliberately to vacate Scotland’s waters for the arrival of the greedy industrial-sized Polish and Spanish fleets)

Anthony Butcher · 12-08-2005, 10:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Britannist

The europhiles have been lying for over a quarter of a century – “3 million jobs depend on EU membership…” and so on. So I'm not too worried about the claim that 50% for EU withdrawal constitutes majority support.

So if the other side lies it is OK for us to do so?

I am not saying that we lied, just that this appears to be the thrust of what you are suggesting.

mkpdavies · 12-08-2005, 11:17 AM

Fighting fire with fire some would call it.

I've come to the conclusion that probably is the only way to win.

Paul Birch · 12-08-2005, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mkpdavies

Fighting fire with fire some would call it.
I've come to the conclusion that probably is the only way to win.

It's an infallible way to lose. Because even if you win, you've lost what you were fighting for.

mkpdavies · 12-08-2005, 11:35 AM

Quote:

It's an infallible way to lose. Because even if you win, you've lost what you were fighting for.

EXACTLY. Hence my dissalusionment with the whole stupid game.

ChrisB · 12-08-2005, 03:30 PM

Er, 50% vs 34% seems like a clear majority to me. :?

Anthony Butcher · 12-08-2005, 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisB

Er, 50% vs 34% seems like a clear majority to me. :?

50% said yes, 50% said something else. Therefore only 50% were in favour. 50% is not a majority.

It would be fair to say "Far more people were in favour of leaving than staying in". Or we could say "a clear majority of those who expressed a preference", but it is NOT a "clear majority" of the British public.

Very pedantic, but I would rather we maintained the highest possible standards.

Alex McKee · 13-08-2005, 04:30 PM

Actually Tony, I don't think you are being pedantic at all. I'd rather a cautious definition than UKIP officials being shown up on TV/Radio for misleading statements.

Besides, I HATE it when politicians spin, and like it or loath it, it would be spin to say that it was a "clear majority".

12-08-2005, 06:19 AM	#3 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	More work needs to be done to counteract europhile lies The europhiles have been lying for over a quarter of a century – “3 million jobs depend on EU membership…” and so on. So I'm not too worried about the claim that 50% for EU withdrawal constitutes majority support. When YouGov says 50% favour EU withdrawal, I do wonder if this is the exact and precise figure. Was it perhaps 50.001% and, therefore, technically a majority of those questioned? I’m sure that within the English part of the UK YouGov found a clear majority for EU withdrawal. Did YouGov give a breakdown for England only? The problem with 50% (as in the YouGov poll) is that in a straight Yes or No question on EU membership in a UK-wide referendum – the larger europhile vote in Scotland (where hostility to the EU is presently less) could be the deciding factor which tips the balance in favour of a narrow ‘Yes’ to stay in the EU (even if England votes ‘No’ to the EU in a UK-wide referendum). It’s the exact opposite situation in Switzerland – where the largely EU-hostile majority German-speaking sector keeps Switzerland out of the EU. To be sure of a No vote in a UK referendum on EU membership, much more work needs to be dome to persuade the Scottish of how the EU is damaging their country. The Scottish media is heavily biased in favour of the EU (nationalist elements see the EU as a useful tool to undermine the unity of the UK). The Livingston By-Election (The Late Robin Cook’s now vacant seat) seems a good place to start the task of promoting the anti-EU case north of the border. UKIP should field a good candidate at Livingston and campaign on: *The disgraceful decision of the europhile Lab/LD Scottish Executive to give a ship-building order to Poland in compliance with the EU procurement rule causing a probable loss of jobs at the Port Glasgow ship-building yard Exposure of the pro-euro Scottish National Party (SNP) as a bogus nationalist party – one that claims to be patriotic but which would transfer sovereign powers over Scotland from Westminster directly to the EU The threat to the Scottish Pound with Labour, SNP and Kennedy’s Laboural ‘Democrats’ all committed to getting rid of it and bringing in the euro *Exposure of the hypocritical stance of the SNP in supporting the EU and all its works for the last three decades and now suddenly coming out against the EU fishing policy (the SNP only doing this, cynically, to avoid electoral damage to itself due to the EU having wrecked the Scottish fishing fleet deliberately to vacate Scotland’s waters for the arrival of the greedy industrial-sized Polish and Spanish fleets)

12-08-2005, 11:17 AM	#5 (permalink)
mkpdavies Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Woking Posts: 30,604	Fighting fire with fire some would call it. I've come to the conclusion that probably is the only way to win. __________________ http://brits4ronpaul.blogspot.com/ http://wokinglibertarians.blogspot.com/ http://lpuk.org My ignore list Labour, Blue Labour, Lib Dems

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11-08-2005, 07:55 PM	#2 (permalink)
jp Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 1,000	"A clear majority of those expressing an opinion" would seem OK

12-08-2005, 03:30 PM	#8 (permalink)
ChrisB Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 130	Er, 50% vs 34% seems like a clear majority to me. :?

13-08-2005, 04:30 PM	#10 (permalink)
Alex McKee Moderator Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Gloucester Posts: 6,661	Actually Tony, I don't think you are being pedantic at all. I'd rather a cautious definition than UKIP officials being shown up on TV/Radio for misleading statements. Besides, I HATE it when politicians spin, and like it or loath it, it would be spin to say that it was a "clear majority".