Bluemerle

e-mail I have just received.

Euro falls after magazine (Stern) airs Berlin's secret doubts

German officials discuss risk of currency collapse at private meeting (on
Thurs 26 May 05)

Reference to the intelligence coming from European central banks
preparing for a collapse of the euro or withdrawal of their states from the
system is significant and relates to my own particular study of time
measures that overrule national and world events.

The EU Political Project has always been far ahead of the economic realities
which is now becoming very obvious. The failure of the French electorate to
support the EU Constitution has been the result of the Continent's miserable
economic performance and the incompetence of the European Central Bank.

The French Revolution period of 1789-1794 relates to what is taking place
now. In the Summer 1791 the French currency began to decline and it was
this fact that unsettled things apart from the movement against monarchy.
Without going INTO phpbb_great deail, if we project forward 120 years plus 120
displacements (94 or 2 x 47 years) we arrive at this point now in 2005 when
the euro economy is in decline. The final 47-year period covers the EU
years from 1958 to 2005, after the Treaty of Rome of 1957.

The number 120 is the number of warning, thus warning of displacement in
France and Europe is now in view. The end of the Reign of Terror came in
the Summer of 1794 which takes us to 3 years from now, or 2008. The
collapse of the euro system and perhaps the EU itself would thus appear to
be in view over the next 3 years. There will be a titanic struggle to
maintain the EU Revolution which seeks to overcome our Covenant system of
government under the Will of the State. Ultimately however it is doomed to
failure, a failure which may come suddenly in the end. We have great hope
in prospect.

For the past 40 years I have been a student of time measures which overrule
the political, economic and religious systems of this world. I can assure
you that events DO follow a fascinating chronological pattern and can be
predicted in general overall terms under the law of terminals whereby the
beginning event is related to the end event linked to the particular
numerical cycle.

Intbel

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We are all free to choose - every step of the way - no exceptions.

Bluemerle

FOREX-Euro dives on Italian call to quit currency
Fri Jun 3, 2005 8:03 AM BST


By Naomi Tajitsu

TOKYO, June 3 (Reuters) - The euro suddenly spiked lower on Friday after an Italian minister said that Italy should quit the single currency and revert back to the lira.

Welfare Minister Roberto Maroni told the Repubblica newspaper that Italy should hold a referendum to decide whether to return to its old currency.

That sent the euro tumbling to $1.2220 from $1.2285 in a matter of minutes as the report added to concerns about the European Union's outlook -- politically and economically.

By 0647 GMT, the euro had recovered to around $1.2260, little changed from late U.S. levels.

The single currency slid to 132.30 yen from 132.62 yen on the report.

The euro's fall also boosted the U.S. currency against the yen, which hit the day's high at 108.25 yen.

Maroni also said that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was one of the people chiefly responsible for the "disaster of the euro".

Traders said the market had jumped on the interview to further sell the euro, which had hit an eight-month low earlier in the week after the Netherlands followed France in overwhelmingly rejecting the EU constitution.

Many traders said that political uncertainty and sluggish economic growth in the euro zone would continue to loom over the single currency.

"There aren't a lot of reasons to buy the euro, so in time, we should be seeing more selling," said Shigeru Komatsu, a trader at Sumitomo Trust and Banking

mkpdavies

The Italians pulling out would be good for the Euro and the Italians.

As long as there are basketcase economies tied INTO phpbb_to the Euro, the only question is when it will fall apart. That and the fact Gernamy and France don't bother following the rules.

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Stephen Booth

France and Germany both tore up the Growth and Stability Pact. The French and Dutch referenda 'no' votes will cause a crisis of morale in the European politicial class. It may also precipitate a crisis of confidence in the European economy. Other problems such as Germany's high unemployment may also fuel this.

What we really need to see is a Weimar style devaluation of the Euro which sends it down so far that it becomes worthless and people paper their walls with it.

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Britain Out of Europe Now !

C_steam

and then annex sudetenland and invade Poland?

The impact of such a devaluation on individuals lives and global stability is such that, perhaps, it should not be joked about.

social observer

Its an interesting thought experiment (and may just be played out for real in the near future) but does anyone want to have a stab at predicting what would actually happen if the currency were to free fall and collapse?

I'm no expert but I would imagine that the first thing would be a run on the banks as people try to draw their savings out, followed by first individual regions (another EU creation) then whole countries descend INTO phpbb_financial chaos. The domino effect would kick in probably within less than a few days across the whole region.

All sounds very exciting, but that spells riots, martial law, toppled governments and desperate military actions in my book.

Or am I just being over dramatic?

Does anyone with a better knowledge of this have some predictions?

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C_steam

I'm don't have better knowledge, but I doubt the scenario would get that far. There would be local heavy sellingof reserves, followed by some worldwide intervention and then rapid suspension of currency trading in the Euro. After a short period of time (no more than 36 hours) the currency would be open to trade again at an agreed re (and de) valued level.

I think that's how it works anyway.

Paul Birch

I agree. Except that even this is probably being too dramatic. Being in the euro is what is stopping countries like Italy from going along the insanely profligate lines that lead to hyperinflation and economic collapse. Their governments may chafe under the constraint, their economies suffer from undue rigidity and inappropriate interest rates, but none of that is catastrophic. The behaviour of France and Germany breaks the rules, but not so outrageously that the system can't cope - they are most unlikely to go to the sort of extremes that could actually trigger a total collapse of the euro on the foreign exchanges. Movements of a few percent are nothing; ten percent a year is trivial.

Bluemerle

Charles Moore in today's DT says, sell Euros with an S (Italian euros), keep euros with an X (German euros).