House Crash

brian pearson · 09-04-2008, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mikeuk

The only reason I 'jump on you' as you put it (no thanks!) is because of your endless ill-informed obsession with this subject.

Not obsessed Mike, just had an oppinion which I expressed and you came on and ridiculed it. I happen to think that the huge explosion in House values is the most damaging thing to happen to our economy in decades. The mess it may leave could take us years to get over.

I've been involved with the domestic property market on a day-to-day basis for the past 37 years. You haven't. That's why I know what I'm talking about and you don't.

Don't make me laugh. WTF does being in an industry for 40 years mean you know it all, or will be right all the time? Like I said , if you were so good at reading the property market then you would have sold your last 'investment' six months ago, before prices started to fall. These would have been purchased ten years ago.....before the massive price rises and if you had bought ten average sized homes then, you would now be retired and very rich and mortgage free.

Get off your high horse and accept that like the city idiots who put all our pension money into dotcoms, you are no more informed about the future than anyone else.

brian pearson · 09-04-2008, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brian pearson

I have long thought that a house price crash inevitable. Not a bottoming out of the market or a price rise slowdown, but a nasty 30% reduction in prices and the neg equity causing many to drop the keys off at the bank. The economy which many believe is credit based will shrivel and the whole house of cards will start to fall.

Then again I thought this last year and still prices continue to rise. Just get a strange feeling though that troubled times are round the corner. No houses where I live are selling, and new home builders are starting to dish out incentives. Just watch, this time next year prices will be up 15% and I will be proven wrong again.

My first post. A simple question. Now read some of your bull$hit replies.

The one about NR being a tiddling little estate agent whose problems will not affect the market is especially funny.

The one about prices flatlining for a few months shows you are bang on!

The Bear · 09-04-2008, 11:15 AM

It strikes me that the Northern Rock relationship with the property market was of little relevance to the emerging global crisis other than being an are of great concern to New Labour since the house market over inflation was one of the sources of cash that was funding the economic mirage that Brown was and still presents as an achievement.

In reality it was the business model that NR was based upon that was the weak link, the selling on of debt into a market that finally clued up that the debt being bought could not be repaid.

It’s not the property market that is the root cause of what I believe will become a very severe global recession or even slump, it is the fundamentals being all to (male) hen and them having been for a number of years.

To those who understand the term I believe that we have just flipped on what in maths is called a “catastrophic curve”. (see here for a “101” catastrophe theory: Definition and Much More from Answers.com )

Before we flip back, if indeed we can, and I am not being silly there, there will need to be some big time and fundamental changes.

Unfortunately history shows these have always come about in association with war.

brian pearson · 09-04-2008, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Bear

It strikes me that the Northern Rock relationship with the property market was of little relevance to the emerging global crisis

In global terms I agree. But the sight of queues outside NR (which isn't a small lender) was the first sign of the collapse of the stupid model that admitadely Applegarth had taken to extremes. Then other lenders saw the madness that was going on and started to reign in.

IMF predict 25% falls. Want to ridicule that Mike?

Mikeuk · 09-04-2008, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brian pearson

My first post. A simple question. Now read some of your bull replies.

The one about NR being a tiddling little estate agent whose problems will not affect the market is especially funny.

The one about prices flatlining for a few months shows you are bang on!

Are you on something?

NR were a building society, not estate agents.

Mikeuk · 09-04-2008, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brian pearson

Don't make me laugh. WTF does being in an industry for 40 years mean you know it all, or will be right all the time? Like I said , if you were so good at reading the property market then you would have sold your last 'investment' six months ago, before prices started to fall. These would have been purchased ten years ago.....before the massive price rises and if you had bought ten average sized homes then, you would now be retired and very rich and mortgage free.

Get off your high horse and accept that like the city idiots who put all our pension money into dotcoms, you are no more informed about the future than anyone else.

Why should I waste a small fortune on agents' and solicitors' fees selling off any of my investments, when I want to keep them as investments? That's the reason I bought them in the first place and in five years' time they will be worth more than they are now.

One of my properties, a small terraced house which is now worth around £140,000, cost me £15,000 about 20 years ago. You think I'm going to sell that just to make the taxman happy? Knock your fabled 30% (Ha! Ha!) off the price and I'm still quids in.

I'm a valuer and an investor. You're neither. Get over it.

youcanhandlethetruth · 09-04-2008, 07:00 PM

If Mike wants to protect his investment by hanging on to it then that is his choice.
As he says he has been involved in this business for a long time, so I can see no reason to doubt that he may be wrong (if he is right as he believes he is)

The Bear · 10-04-2008, 08:58 AM

Investing in things is a good idea but only if the things you invest in are at least holding their own and better still appreciating.

The trick is to recognise when to sell out of one investment area and buy into another, that way there is a considerable amount of money to be made.

Right now property is heading for a slump worse than any in the last 60 years, I am convinced of it, so even now it’s time to bail out and get into a safer investment, at least an investment that isn’t going into free fall.

I can see Brown bringing in legislation to “protect” those who can’t afford to pay their mortgages once phase two of the British economy slump gets under way, the unemployment bombshell.

My guess is that legislation will be brought in whereby banks and other institutions will be given sweeteners in the form of tax relief or more so that when a mortgage fails there is advantage in not evicting the people who are in trouble.

The alternative will be a huge number of people on the streets needing to be rehoused in some way and all at the tax payers expense.

One way or another as the effects of New Labour maladministration now come home to roost there will be blood.

Oh yes, there will be blood.

brian pearson · 10-04-2008, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by youcanhandlethetruth

If Mike wants to protect his investment by hanging on to it then that is his choice.
As he says he has been involved in this business for a long time, so I can see no reason to doubt that he may be wrong (if he is right as he believes he is)

Who are you, his mother? I'm sure he is able to argue for himself.

As for 'been in the business a long time'. So has Gordon Brown. He has got to the very top of his profesion so we don't question him?

Alex McKee · 10-04-2008, 10:31 AM

Keep this polite, Brian. YCHHTT is entitled to air his views. He was not claiming to speak for Mike.

09-04-2008, 07:00 PM	#127 (permalink)
youcanhandlethetruth Uber Member Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 2,582	If Mike wants to protect his investment by hanging on to it then that is his choice. As he says he has been involved in this business for a long time, so I can see no reason to doubt that he may be wrong (if he is right as he believes he is) __________________ Before tyranny and television, "conspiracy theorists" never existed. cointelpro/halfwits(in order of Porkpies) Clippo,Wowbanger TIP,agni,Akria,Besoeker,Bear,Eurosceptic Antlantacist

10-04-2008, 10:31 AM	#130 (permalink)
Alex McKee Moderator Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Gloucester Posts: 6,666	Keep this polite, Brian. YCHHTT is entitled to air his views. He was not claiming to speak for Mike. __________________ Anything I post on this web forum is my personal opinion only. Users on Ignore list: None.

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09-04-2008, 11:15 AM	#123 (permalink)
The Bear Uber Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: East Anglia Posts: 2,178	It strikes me that the Northern Rock relationship with the property market was of little relevance to the emerging global crisis other than being an are of great concern to New Labour since the house market over inflation was one of the sources of cash that was funding the economic mirage that Brown was and still presents as an achievement. In reality it was the business model that NR was based upon that was the weak link, the selling on of debt into a market that finally clued up that the debt being bought could not be repaid. It’s not the property market that is the root cause of what I believe will become a very severe global recession or even slump, it is the fundamentals being all to (male) hen and them having been for a number of years. To those who understand the term I believe that we have just flipped on what in maths is called a “catastrophic curve”. (see here for a “101” catastrophe theory: Definition and Much More from Answers.com ) Before we flip back, if indeed we can, and I am not being silly there, there will need to be some big time and fundamental changes. Unfortunately history shows these have always come about in association with war.

10-04-2008, 08:58 AM	#128 (permalink)
The Bear Uber Member Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: East Anglia Posts: 2,178	Investing in things is a good idea but only if the things you invest in are at least holding their own and better still appreciating. The trick is to recognise when to sell out of one investment area and buy into another, that way there is a considerable amount of money to be made. Right now property is heading for a slump worse than any in the last 60 years, I am convinced of it, so even now it’s time to bail out and get into a safer investment, at least an investment that isn’t going into free fall. I can see Brown bringing in legislation to “protect” those who can’t afford to pay their mortgages once phase two of the British economy slump gets under way, the unemployment bombshell. My guess is that legislation will be brought in whereby banks and other institutions will be given sweeteners in the form of tax relief or more so that when a mortgage fails there is advantage in not evicting the people who are in trouble. The alternative will be a huge number of people on the streets needing to be rehoused in some way and all at the tax payers expense. One way or another as the effects of New Labour maladministration now come home to roost there will be blood. Oh yes, there will be blood.