C_steam

What - to you - would be classed as a "success" for UKIP in the bromley by election?

Bear in mind the time, money and effort being spent by UKIP on this campaign.
Bear in mind it is in a fairly UKIP stronghold of the south east
Bear in mind it is UKIP's 'best asset' standing
Bear in mind previous incumbents euro-scepticism.

Johnny Hates Jazz

With the massive Conservative & Unionist majority in Bromley & Chislehurst, only a high profile personal "scandal", relating to the Conservative & European-Unionist Candidate, would move significant voters away from the Conservative & Unionist Party.

However with a good campaign UKIP could end up in 2nd Place.

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andypandy

Realistically, apart from a win, it would - should - be an expectation for UKIP to come second. At the other end of the scale, a saved deposit should be the LEAST expected. Otherwise, to be beaten by pro-Euro Lib Dems and Labour in a seat held by a former critic of the EU, in a seat where UKIP has high expectations from its campaign, its candidate and the money spent, would be a disaster.

I notice the poll at present suggests 75% or more think at least 20% is achievable, I hope they are right for their sake, because anything less, much less, could spell big trouble for the both UKIP and its candidate.

As a matter of good faith, I have sent a small donation to both the UKIP and the EDP, as I consider each party worthy of support, and could not bring myself to make a choice between them, though I don't expect the EDP to do that much damage to UKIP's campaign, not with billboards and Farage's high-profile in this election. But, you never know!

progcon.org

Hi andypandy, this vote is about setting what people consider the bar of success to be, not predicting exactly how UKIP will do, which is quite different.

This seems the perfect seat;
* eurosceptic MP dies and is replaced by non-eurosceptic
* previous mp was pro-grammar schools and now Tory Party is opposed to them
* ukip candidate is very local
* ukip spending a lot of time, energy and money on the campaign
* ukip candidate, very, if not the most high profile person in the party

There will have to be some very serious questions to address regarding ukip and its strategy if they do not make a breakthrough in this seat at get more than 15% but really should be 20%+.

andypandy

Greetings progcon. I doubt the amount of money being spent is any sort of scale as to an expected result. During the Preston by-election campaign many years ago, UKIP spent about ten grand, and polled just 450 votes or so, so costing UKIP £22 or so per vote. I know that was a long time ago, well, actually 5 or 6 years ago, but we should not assume that money spent equals votes cast. With Farage's high-profile, that alone would be all that UKIP needs.

And yes, questions (what, MORE questions??) will have to be asked if Farage does not deliver. I would have thought that this being a sort of Tory rebel constituency, that most Tories would be happy as long as their candidate is equally as rebellious as the previous occupant, thus removing a need for another party to represent them. Remember, these are TORY voters we are talking about - rational and coherent thinking does not come into it!

Niall Warry

The message UKIP should be giving out at Bromley is just look at the votes we can get on our principled stand of leaving the EU and exposing the hypocrisy of the LibLabCon who all support the EU and therefore can not impliment their policies as 80% of our laws come from Brussels. Therefore we need to get at least 20% as this would put the fear of God into the LibLabCon that so long as they are pro the EU UKIP can loose them seats and therefore power.

Aardvark

A good result is essential. 20% or better is necessary for street cred.

Johnny Hates Jazz

Total expenditure by English Democrats on Bromley will be £5,000 max

- Vote per £ - English Democrats is best value from the analysis of the 2005 General Election and the 2004 European Election.

ED

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English not British not European ?
- It's time to decide at the 2009 European Elections

Richard Allen

Anything under 15% will be a big dissapointment and really we should hope to get at least 20%. Over 25% and we should be very happy.

Britannist

Third place in the Bromley By-Election would be a good result for UKIP - I think all reasonable political 'analysts' in the media would accept that. I read something in one of the 'papers a couple of days ago which implied that 'Tony' Bliar's Liebour Party are worried at being pushed out of third place at Bromley-Chislehurst by UKIP on 29.6.2006.

So, it may not be a question of percentage share of the vote - the media may simply be looking at the ranking.

I voted for 20% above - although a 10% share for UKIP (a party presently short of money and 'ground troops') might also be considered quite impressive (at the Bromley By-Election).

Nigel Farage got 2079 votes (just over 5%) at Thanet, South in last year's General Election. He needs quite a jump in support to reach even 10% of the vote at Bromley.

I think it's fair to say that if UKIP gets a higher percentage share of the vote in Bromley on 29.6.2006 than it got in the delayed poll in the Staffordshire South constituency on 24.6.2005 then the party will be doing well. Both seats are similar in that they are Conservative-held partly rural constituencies on the edge of large conurbations.