andypandy

According to Antony Butcher's posting on the 10th May last year, UKIP fell from 16% at the Euro vote, to just 2.38% average at the GE.

This suggests that the ratio between each vote was 1:7. The UKIP vote at Bromley was slightly higher than the average. UKIP was able to muster votes of around 150-200% higher during two by-elections of Hartlepool and Stafforshire South in each case roughly two and a half to three times a previous GE result. One of those, followed on the back of the best ever UKIP vote during the Euro 2004 poll when UKIP coverage was the best the party had ever had. The other followed after general election results that Antony Butcher described as "...a disaster".

Even with Nigel Farage, I really believe that UKIP will do no better than around 2-3 times that of the last GE result in Bromley. So expect a vote of no more than 6-9%, probably a fourth place at best.

Remember, we are dealing with Tory voters here, they will not want to scupper Conservative Party prospects at a future GE. They probably want Blair out of government MORE than they want Britain out of the EU.

Britannist

There are also some people who normally vote Conservative at Bromley who know that 'Tony' Bliar will be out - or just about out - of Downing Street by this time next year anway, however they vote on 29.6.2006. The attention of such voters at Bromley and Chislehurst may turn to the sound views of The Late Mr. Eric Forth (the last MP for Bromley) and if the views of the Conservative candidate for the By-Election at Bromley match up. If these electors receive literature from UKIP saying that Mr. Forth's views on 'europe' will not be honoured in the future (by the Conservative candidate at Bromley and by the Conservative leadership) they might switch to UKIP.

Adrian Davies

In my view as a non-member of UKIP, you will have just cause to celebrate if you achieve 15% of the vote. 10% of the vote in a safe Tory seat at a time when frankly the EU is not a major issue to most people (whether it ought to be is a different question) would be respectable. Much less (let alone failing to save the deposit) would be poor, given the high profile candidate selected, and the resources put into the campaign.

For the Eng Dems, saving their deposit would be a small triumph, as they never have in a parliamentary election. I predict 2% since they failed to run their one and only celebrity candidate. That isn't a reflection on Steve Uncles's personal merits. Gary Bushell has a media profile, SU doesn't.

Edward Longshanks

I think in all honesty you will all feel somewhat deflated following the announcement from Bromley. :wink:

Intbel

Only a win is acceptable.
Anything else ... well, I refuse to consider anything else.

Adrian Davies

"Only a win is acceptable.
Anything else ... well, I refuse to consider anything else. "

Is this a wind up? PIgs will fly over the moon before Nigel wins Bromley.

Britannist

To win Bromley, Nigel needs to get nearly six times the vote he secured last year (in the General Election) at Thanet, South (and even then that share of the vote - about 29% - would only give the chance to win for UKIP on a three-way split with the Conservatives and Campbell's europhile Fiberal Dims).

The media won't be looking at percentage share of the vote - they'll be looking at the ranking of the parties. I've read that 'Tony' Bliar's Liebour Party is seriously worried about being pushed further down the ranking by UKIP beating them for third place.

If UKIP gets third place in the Bromley By-Election it will have done very well and all but the most europhile newspapers would report UKIP's success favourably. To get into third place at Bromley, Nigel needs to at least double his percentage share of the vote (just over 5%) he obtained at Thanet, South. This would also mean he could possibly just match the 10% of the vote UKIP secured in the Staffordshire South delayed constituency poll on 24.6.2005.

arden forester

Wouldn't 29% look good and bad at the same time, Britannist! It is possible to win seats like this under our system. When one was either a little Liberal or a little Con-serva-tive, it was OK. Now I do wonder. :roll:

This could be the result (assuming Nigel Farage keeps a straight furrow!)

1. UKIP 26%
2. Cons 24%
3. LibDems 19%
4. Labour 16%
5. Green 5%
6. EDP 4%
7. NF 3%
8 others 3%

This all assumes that UKIP is seen as a possible winner! :wink: If not, either the voters will stick with the Tories, go to LibeDems or split all over the place!

However, I think Adrian Davies has a more reasoned answer!!

This is because Farage will, I fear, keep banging on about Europe, when it is the local opinion towards present/current national issues that win by-elections! :!:

ChrisB

It seems to me that this election is enormously dangerous for Nigel. If he gets anything less than a win (or a very, very good 2nd), his political career is over. I certainly won't vote for him for leader if he can't win Bromley. Perhaps I'm just being overdramatic, but he must really believe he can do well.

Anything below a close 2nd would be enormously disappointing, especially as we're throwing all our firepower at it.

Tom Wilde

Chris, I think you are being overdramatic. UKIP winning Bromley would be one of the greatest feats in recent British electoral history. However, we should aim high, the omens are good and in odd moments I'm even starting to believe that such a feat is - just about -possible! :shock:

However, if Farage and the electors of Bromely & Chislehurst fail to pull off that miracle, I don't see why that should be the end of the road for Farage. As long as the result is at least respectable - which currently seems highly likely - it won't have an adverse affect on his standing in UKIP.