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Thread: eight experiments on CO2

  1. #1
    Trusted Member manbearpig's Avatar
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    Jul 2010
    On a farm

    Default eight experiments on CO2

    Rather than using an enormously complex global circulation model (or 22) to come up with a figure for climate sensitivity, Sherwood Idso does calculations from eight completely different natural experiments which all arrive at similar figures. In short, he reviewed 20 years of work to arrive at a prediction that if CO2 is doubled we will get 0.4C of warming at most, and even he admitted, it might be an overestimate.
    Temperatures may go down as well as up terms and conditions apply.

  2. #2
    Trusted Member
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    May 2007
    New South Wales


    Natural Experiment 1: He found that the amount of water vapor didn’t affect maxima, but did affect the minima which occur just before dawn — when the effect of the humidity trapping the outgoing heat radiating off the planet was not confounded by incoming solar radiation.
    Does this mean that clouds are not made of CO2?

    Natural Experiment 2: Dust over Phoenix keeps the city warmer in winter
    Idso estimated the sensitivity by calculating the extra warming effect of the dust in the winter months.
    Aha! Dust is made of CO2. Knew it.

    Natural Experiment 3: Changes in incoming solar radiation and temperature at 81 US sites

    There were two common trends, a lower one for the West Coast which he speculated was driven by the Pacific, and a higher one for the interior which matched the trends at Phoenix. This was the beginning of a pattern that consistently shows that different regions have slightly different sensitivities — all negative.
    Deserts are definitely negative, their extra heat is a great weakness.

    Natural Experiment 5: The Pole to Equator Gradient

    Idso divided up the globe into small bands across the latitudes, used the distribution of cloud cover , mean air temperatures, water vapor pressures and the solar radiation absorbed at the surface to calculate estimates of sensitivity for each band.
    "calculate estimates" He what?
    Natural Experiment 7: Faint Sun Paradox

    The sun was about 25% weaker 4.5 billion years ago (according to Standard Solar models). Using estimates of the CO2 concentrations billions of years ago (which were in the order of 10 – 20 times higher) Idso calculates ..
    who's a naughty boy then?


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