Has UKIP achieved its aim and what next for UKIP?

[Steve Morson]

There is indeed some potential for us in half of the Birmingham Hodge Hill seat. Unfortunately the other half of it contains two wards which are both 75-85% Muslim. Rightly or wrongly that makes it tough going for us.

Yes, I can well imagine! (Those were suggestions based on perceived anti-EU sentiment in the populace; important factors such as those you've provided should be paramount.)

[Baron von Lotsov]

For very obvious reasons, seats should include those containing the Killingholme refinery (Cleethorpes), Bombardier (Derby North?), LDV (Hodge Hill), Peugeot (Coventry South), Twinings (North Tyneside), Valeo (REDDITCH!), et al.

Then, some of the most marginal seats from the 2010 election, maybe include:

Bolton West
Camborne and Redruth
Solihull
Southampton Itchen
Hampstead and Kilburn
Warwickshire North
Thurrock
Hendon
Oldham East and Saddleworth
Oxford West and Abingdon
Ashfield
Sheffield Central
Cardiff North
Sherwood
Dorset Mid and Poole North
Norwich South
Stockton South
Edinburgh South
Broxtowe
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Truro and Falmouth
Bradford East
Newton Abbot
Amber Valley
Chesterfield
Wirral South
Derby North
Swansea West
Wells
Dudley North
Morecambe and Lunesdale
Great Grimsby
Harrogate and Knaresborough
Hull North
Morley and Outwood
Rochdale
Waveney
Wolverhampton South West


All of these seats have a majority of 2% of turnout or less. Everything will depend, as Richard Allen rightly says, on the strength of the local party infrastructure. Like I say, with lessons from Bradford, a strong local candidate with an established identity, well supported, with a campaign fought with gusto.

There is absolutely no point whatsoever - IMHO - in trying to establish branches / fight elections in staunch constituencies - like my own. Forget 10 & 11,000 majorities, they're pipe dreams.

You never know. Remember it is local situations that can determine the vote as well. Lets say there is an area that is heavily dependent on some steel works that gets shut down because of EU carbon regulations and thousands lose their jobs. Keep an eye out for these possibilities and exploit them where you can.

[Steve Morson]

You never know. Remember it is local situations that can determine the vote as well. Lets say there is an area that is heavily dependent on some steel works that gets shut down because of EU carbon regulations and thousands lose their jobs. Keep an eye out for these possibilities and exploit them where you can.

Hence the first line of that post.....

[Steve Morson]

all seats need to be contested, BUT only a core should be concentrated on.
If local branches want to contest all seats then why not?
but have key seats focus by key candidates in seats where we got good results before.

Indeed. I don't have a problem with paper candidates, although UKIP still holds the dubious honour of being the political party to have lost the largest number of deposits in British electoral history - £229,000.

I think that the resources and money spent in following that policy is reckless, ill-conceived, and futile, and dancing to the Establishment's tune. If, as I say the party was to concentrate it's resources on about 100 seats, it may yield result or two. Nothing to stop members standing locally if they have a strong and well-established candidate, but - generally speaking - for UKIP to fight seats where there is a 4 or 5,000 majority seems to (me to) be a waste of time.

[Niall Warry]

Indeed. I don't have a problem with paper candidates, although UKIP still holds the dubious honour of being the political party to have lost the largest number of deposits in British electoral history - £229,000.

I think that the resources and money spent in following that policy is reckless, ill-conceived, and futile, and dancing to the Establishment's tune. If, as I say the party was to concentrate it's resources on about 100 seats, it may yield result or two. Nothing to stop members standing locally if they have a strong and well-established candidate, but - generally speaking - for UKIP to fight seats where there is a 4 or 5,000 majority seems to (me to) be a waste of time.

I couldn't agree more.

The trouble is Nigel's EUKIP has never had an overall achievable AIM let alone a specific STRATEGY for General Elections.

Standing is every seat makes no sense at all and puts VANITY before SANITY.

A wise and strategic General would use his troops and resources to maximize their effect - taking on all enemies from every direction would probably result in failure.

Oh! for some strategic thinking in UKIP.

Trouble is under the predominately self interested leadership of Nigel his EUKIP contributes nothing of real value and actually plays into the 'Establishments' hands.

Sadly, the LibLabCon has nothing to fear to from Nigel's EUKIP.

[Niall Warry]

Indeed. I don't have a problem with paper candidates, although UKIP still holds the dubious honour of being the political party to have lost the largest number of deposits in British electoral history - £229,000.

I think that the resources and money spent in following that policy is reckless, ill-conceived, and futile, and dancing to the Establishment's tune. If, as I say the party was to concentrate it's resources on about 100 seats, it may yield result or two. Nothing to stop members standing locally if they have a strong and well-established candidate, but - generally speaking - for UKIP to fight seats where there is a 4 or 5,000 majority seems to (me to) be a waste of time.

I couldn't agree more.

The trouble is Nigel's EUKIP has never had an overall achievable AIM let alone a specific STRATEGY for General Elections.

Standing is every seat makes no sense at all and puts VANITY before SANITY.

A wise and strategic General would use his troops and resources to maximize their effect - taking on all enemies from every direction would probably result in failure.

Oh! for some strategic thinking in UKIP.

Trouble is under the predominately self interested leadership of Nigel his EUKIP contributes nothing of real value and actually plays into the 'Establishments' hands.

Sadly, the LibLabCon has nothing to fear to from Nigel's EUKIP.

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Perfectly understandable Arthur, maybe I was "projecting" my own situation, which I'll explain. (Sorry for repeat!)

In Bromsgrove, the MP up to 2010 was Julie Kirkbride, who, for one afternoon was plastered all over Sky News in the expenses debacle. The local Conservative commitee were split as to whether to reselect her (!! - 50 / 50 I'm told), and instead they went for a Muslim banker from London. That went down like the Belgrano here in 55+ blue rinse-land, a rather prosperous / very comfortable middle class constituency; I'll spare the delicate members of the forum some of the things said to me on the doorsteps and in the town centre (which I did my best to counter!) So screaming outrage at Ms. Kirkbride AND the selection of Mr. Sajid Javid as candidate, the political climate was absolutely torrid. I was told by many people I was likely to win here, simply from the outrage, especially following really successful hustings appearances, a great radio debate (BBC H & W) and television coverage (lots of comments on my suit!)

What happpened? Ms Kirkbride's majority of 10,080 turned to 11,200 for Mr. Sajid Javid, MP (enjoying a stellar parliamentary career - 18 months in and PPS to the Chancellor!) - in that atmosphere! I'm convinced the vast majority of my vote was postal - the BNP did far better than me at the ballot box, from what I saw. As I pointed out in a local paper, they'd vote for a monkey in a tutu and wellies here if it wore a blue rosette. It's not bitterness - it's an inescapable fact that should be considered by anyone not standing for the Tories.

So, to explain. Extraordinary results in 2010; Stourbridge, Halesowen, and Redditch (Jacqui Smith!) - neighbouring constituencies - all went Con from established Labour, as did some Black Country seats. Wyre Forest went Con from Indep (Dr. Richard Taylor, a popular local doctor originally on a "save the local hospital" ticket). These constituencies have shown a willingness to change, and therefore should be assiduously worked. Redditch branch was effectively destroyed for reasons mentioned way back, and I would have preferred to see the branch resurrected and worked anew, after I suggested it merge for this effect when I became Bromsgrove chairman in 2010. I believe this happened at the last AGM, just weeks ago. So I wanted to spend our resources in a next-door seat that had electoral potential for UKIP, but of course, that won't necessarily apply across the country.

I understand that blanket coverage gets media coverage (of sorts!), but it plays the BBC's game, and results in UKIP getting nearly a million votes, and not a single MP.

Indeed Mr Morson – in 2010, I was getting so many good comments when I was leafleting on behalf of our candidate with the promise of votes from many, both young and old. Yet come election day, our sitting MP was still comfortably elected. However during one daty of leafleting, I came across an individual who told us that our MP did so much for our area and that he would never entertain the notion of voting for anyone else – when I asked him to name these things that our MP had done, he couldn’t name one. I then proceeded to tell him that one thing our MP had done was that he told anyone who would listen that he would stop Tesco building one of their carbuncles in our area as it would decimate our local shopping centre. Fast forward a few years later and Tesco was built (with his blessing) and our local shopping centre now resembles the Marie Celeste. So when I provided this information to the dissenting gentleman, he told me that he thought it was disgusting but wouldn’t change his voting patterns as his father “would turn in his grave”. I actually laughed and was given a torrent of foul mouthed abuse because I said that that mindset will mean that our MP and his party will coast along and do absolutely nothing for our area because the electorate are scared of deviating from the rest. I actually think we could get a gibbon, fill him with whiskey, throw a red rosette on him and he would still be elected comfortably – I despair of the electorate sometimes and its difficult not to say “you deserve your MP because you did nothing to change him”

[Niall Warry]

Indeed Mr Morson – in 2010, I was getting so many good comments when I was leafleting on behalf of our candidate with the promise of votes from many, both young and old. Yet come election day, our sitting MP was still comfortably elected. However during one daty of leafleting, I came across an individual who told us that our MP did so much for our area and that he would never entertain the notion of voting for anyone else – when I asked him to name these things that our MP had done, he couldn’t name one. I then proceeded to tell him that one thing our MP had done was that he told anyone who would listen that he would stop Tesco building one of their carbuncles in our area as it would decimate our local shopping centre. Fast forward a few years later and Tesco was built (with his blessing) and our local shopping centre now resembles the Marie Celeste. So when I provided this information to the dissenting gentleman, he told me that he thought it was disgusting but wouldn’t change his voting patterns as his father “would turn in his grave”. I actually laughed and was given a torrent of foul mouthed abuse because I said that that mindset will mean that our MP and his party will coast along and do absolutely nothing for our area because the electorate are scared of deviating from the rest. I actually think we could get a gibbon, fill him with whiskey, throw a red rosette on him and he would still be elected comfortably – I despair of the electorate sometimes and its difficult not to say “you deserve your MP because you did nothing to change him”

You outline a major problem UKIP faces at General Election time which is all the more reason why they need a strategy and plan to maximize their potential.

[Baron von Lotsov]

Indeed. I don't have a problem with paper candidates, although UKIP still holds the dubious honour of being the political party to have lost the largest number of deposits in British electoral history - £229,000.

I think that the resources and money spent in following that policy is reckless, ill-conceived, and futile, and dancing to the Establishment's tune. If, as I say the party was to concentrate it's resources on about 100 seats, it may yield result or two. Nothing to stop members standing locally if they have a strong and well-established candidate, but - generally speaking - for UKIP to fight seats where there is a 4 or 5,000 majority seems to (me to) be a waste of time.

Yes well I believe the trouble is PR. PR and FPTP are two entirely different systems. The UKIP is optimised to win EU elections, and they don't mean an awful lot.

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

You outline a major problem UKIP faces at General Election time which is all the more reason why they need a strategy and plan to maximize their potential.

Well how can you develop a strategy to people like that, Mr Warry? It still galls me two years later. I suppose you will bemoan UKIP's supposed lack of strategy in keeping with your general pessimism, but there are some people who just will not listen to whatever UKIP or indeed any other party will tell them. I can tell you from experience that one of the most soul destroying moments in my life was looking at the stacks of Labour votes in our constituency at the 2010 count. Even with the expenses scandal and several local issues like the one I highlighted, the inertia continued and the MP who has coasted his entire political life stood in the corner without a care in the world, a person who treats his constituents as if they are elderly relatives he is forced to see. So what on earth can be done to answer that kind of voter-MP relationship.

I'd be very interested in whatever strategy you may have to appeal to my replicant neighbours but I can tell you right now that short of banning tax and raising benefits UKIP will never achieve success in my area and that cannot be pinned on Mr Farage or anyone else in the party.