There is indeed some potential for us in half of the Birmingham Hodge Hill seat. Unfortunately the other half of it contains two wards which are both 75-85% Muslim. Rightly or wrongly that makes it tough going for us.Originally Posted by Steve Morson
I agree Steve.
The route UKIP chose to go, by contesting all seats, was putting vanity before sanity.
But as I never tire of saying Nigel's EUKIP has NEVER had any strategy, tactics or plan.
I agree entirely Mr Morson but your last point highlights a difficulty that I myself have considered in the past. I live in a constituency where the sitting MP and/or his party will be voted in by my gullible neighbours regardless - I'm not even sure the worst kind of tabloid scandal would cause a swing against them. Now, in my area we have what I think is a very active branch, ran by fine people who know the futility of Westminster elections in our area. Firstly, I offer no condemnation of your point made but it would be difficult for me to stand up at a meeting and say "we have no chance getting elected here so it is pointless continuing our branch as te party are aiming for marginals". It's just hard for me to think that is a good thing where we can disregard branches because of their unfortunate geography. One of my fellow branch members once said that there is no shame in aiming for second in our area as that is a sign of progress - I wasn't so sure at the time but I accept that she was basically telling us it's the best we can hope for - rather like Premier League teams who battle to finish fourth and ensure European tournaments.
As a long term strategy, you're absolutely correct that marginals should be the target - but I hope we can as a party still accommodate those activists who unfortunately live in some of the safer seats in te UK.
Political parties exist to put up candidates in elections - hardly vanity. There is no evidence that concentrating on, say, 50% of seats would achieve more - probably less.
The point is over the years Brighton is a place that many green minded (not green party) members have chosen to go and live and so linked with the green party work they had a unique place where their core voters have been increasing due to the type of people living there not esp because of what the greens have bene doing.
Do you really think that the greens managed to turn 30% of the voters into greens that were torys or other voters??
and the point i made was ukip can not easy follow this example as there is no-where that populated by natural ukip minded people like brighton is populated by green minded people.
dont fully agree.
much depends on the minds of local voters.
I a local council ward there was 2-3000 people who had signed against a waste burning plant being built next to them with access through the town for lorrys.
labour was pushing the idea and backed it.
they still voted in labour candidate...
how do you get through to these type of people?
all seats need to be contested, BUT only a core should be concentrated on.
If local branches want to contest all seats then why not?
but have key seats focus by key candidates in seats where we got good results before.
Well, there is another aspect Niall. As you may know, a massive, great fat "bumble bee in my bonnet" is political bias (specifically anti-UKIP) by the BBC. They state (and I have a fair bit of correspondence) that we need these massive numbers of candidates to get the number of PPBs that we did in, say 2010. I also have a perfect example of their anfractuous reasoning and twisted logic, in a reply letter to one of my complaints.
I appreciate the lure of this, and the decisions of the party in fielding so many candidates. But what has changed my outlook is my experience in the last elections; more in a moment....
Steve
Perfectly understandable Arthur, maybe I was "projecting" my own situation, which I'll explain. (Sorry for repeat!)
In Bromsgrove, the MP up to 2010 was Julie Kirkbride, who, for one afternoon was plastered all over Sky News in the expenses debacle. The local Conservative commitee were split as to whether to reselect her (!! - 50 / 50 I'm told), and instead they went for a Muslim banker from London. That went down like the Belgrano here in 55+ blue rinse-land, a rather prosperous / very comfortable middle class constituency; I'll spare the delicate members of the forum some of the things said to me on the doorsteps and in the town centre (which I did my best to counter!) So screaming outrage at Ms. Kirkbride AND the selection of Mr. Sajid Javid as candidate, the political climate was absolutely torrid. I was told by many people I was likely to win here, simply from the outrage, especially following really successful hustings appearances, a great radio debate (BBC H & W) and television coverage (lots of comments on my suit!)
What happpened? Ms Kirkbride's majority of 10,080 turned to 11,200 for Mr. Sajid Javid, MP (enjoying a stellar parliamentary career - 18 months in and PPS to the Chancellor!) - in that atmosphere! I'm convinced the vast majority of my vote was postal - the BNP did far better than me at the ballot box, from what I saw. As I pointed out in a local paper, they'd vote for a monkey in a tutu and wellies here if it wore a blue rosette. It's not bitterness - it's an inescapable fact that should be considered by anyone not standing for the Tories.
So, to explain. Extraordinary results in 2010; Stourbridge, Halesowen, and Redditch (Jacqui Smith!) - neighbouring constituencies - all went Con from established Labour, as did some Black Country seats. Wyre Forest went Con from Indep (Dr. Richard Taylor, a popular local doctor originally on a "save the local hospital" ticket). These constituencies have shown a willingness to change, and therefore should be assiduously worked. Redditch branch was effectively destroyed for reasons mentioned way back, and I would have preferred to see the branch resurrected and worked anew, after I suggested it merge for this effect when I became Bromsgrove chairman in 2010. I believe this happened at the last AGM, just weeks ago. So I wanted to spend our resources in a next-door seat that had electoral potential for UKIP, but of course, that won't necessarily apply across the country.
I understand that blanket coverage gets media coverage (of sorts!), but it plays the BBC's game, and results in UKIP getting nearly a million votes, and not a single MP.
Last edited by Steve Morson; 21-03-2012 at 09:01 PM. Reason: You can guess, I'm sure :)
Steve
An important question, and I don't have an answer. (It typifies the capricious nature of the British voter for me. In some polls, they show that some voters vote local on national issues, and national on local issues. How could anyone campaign against that!)
Here, in 1995, they built a nice Market Hall in the town centre. In 2010, the Conservative council voted to demolish it, for car parking spaces! The local people were stamping angry - it was levelled 2 years ago and is still parking spaces. When I suggested - at a 2010 GE hustings in Alvechurch - that the voters vote them out "next year", it got a tumultous round of applause.
What happened?
In the 2011 (full) council elections here last year, they re-elected 25 of the EXACT same 27 councillors (of 39 seats) that approved the demolition. And although 2 Cons lost their seats, they gained 2 others, so back to 27.
Steve
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