Which Party will be first to gain a Westminster Seat?

This-England · 13-12-2006, 07:23 PM

Which Party will be first to gain a Westminster Seat and where and when will they gain that seat.

ryansoton · 13-12-2006, 07:27 PM

I ahve to say that all parites are along way off returning their first MP but I think UKIP will be first, then Green, BNP. I cant see the ED ever returning an MP.

Christina · 13-12-2006, 09:12 PM

I think the BNP are closer to a breakthrough because I think more people are willing to stop voting Labour for the BNP, than there are who will stop voting Tory for UKIP.

Britannist · 13-12-2006, 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ryansoton

I ahve to say that all parites are along way off returning their first MP but I think UKIP will be first, then Green, BNP. I cant see the ED ever returning an MP.

Ryan, I have to say that I think the English Democrats could get an MP elected. It would require targeting of a particular constituency and of them (the English Democrats) managing to 'sideline' UKIP and other 'small' parties in the election battle.

Is the poll at the top of this page based on us having the first-past-the-post electoral system or on a change to another 'system' of voting which might make it easier for parties without representation in the Commons to gain parilamentary seats at Westminster?

By the way, the 'small' party without a seat in the Commons which clame closest to winning a seat there at the last General Election was the Green Party which narrowly missed coming a very good second place at Brighton Pavilion. Labour retained the seat with a reduced majority - but they must now be very worried.

Independent UKIP · 13-12-2006, 09:26 PM

It all depends on whether FPTP is maintained & if not what system succeeds it. Under FPTP I'd say Green & if I'm correct probably in this seat:

Brighton Pavilion

David Lepper Labour 15,427 35.4 -13.3
Mike Weatherley Conservative 10,397 23.9 -1.2
Keith Taylor Green 9,571 22.0 +12.7
Hazel Thorpe Liberal Democrat 7,171 16.5 +3.4
Kimberley Crisp-Comotto UK Independence Party 508 1.2 +0.3
Tony Greenstein Alliance for Green Socialism 188 0.4 +0.4
Ian Fyvie Socialist Labour Party 152 0.3 -1.1
Christopher Rooke Independent 122 0.3 +0.3
Keith Jago Independent 42 0.1 +0.1

Possible that Labour support will fall further, tories maintain their support and Lib Dems transfer to the Greens to get Labour out & ensure tories don't win. Soc Lab & AGS voters would also probably need to vote Green for them to win.

Edit: Britannist you submitted your post whilst I was writing/researching mine. We're thinking in the same direction.

This-England · 13-12-2006, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Britannist

Quote:

Originally Posted by ryansoton

I ahve to say that all parites are along way off returning their first MP but I think UKIP will be first, then Green, BNP. I cant see the ED ever returning an MP.

Ryan, I have to say that I think the English Democrats could get an MP elected. It would require targeting of a particular constituency and of them (the English Democrats) managing to 'sideline' UKIP and other 'small' parties in the election battle.

Quote:

Is the poll at the top of this page based on us having the first-past-the-post electoral system or on a change to another 'system' of voting which might make it easier for parties without representation in the Commons to gain parilamentary seats at Westminster?

first-past-the-post

Quote:

By the way, the 'small' party without a seat in the Commons which clame closest to winning a seat there at the last General Election was the Green Party which narrowly missed coming a very good second place at Brighton Pavilion. Labour retained the seat with a reduced majority - but they must now be very worried.

The BNP got 17% in Barking at the last election.
They must be on around 40% there now.

Tom Wilde · 13-12-2006, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by This-England

The BNP got 17% in Barking at the last election.
They must be on around 40% there now.

You'll be able to check their progress in Barking soon. As mentioned in another thread, two BNP councillors there are apparently about to resign due to bankruptcy proceedings, so there will probably be by-elections for their seats early in 2007.

Basically, judging by a string of stories in Private Eye, the BNP in Barking is falling apart spectacularly with in-fighting, resignations and a bit of a scandal involving the group leader (who was also the parliamentary candidate in 2005) having used a false address on his nomination papers for the council elections. There is a lot of other stuff too. I doubt if they are at anything like 17% support there any more, and there is very little chance of them holding those two council seats, let alone winning a parliamentary one there!

I voted UKIP most likely to be first to win a Westminster seat, but I do agree that they'll have to pull all the stops out to get there ahead of the Green Party. I'd say UKIP's first Westminster win is likely to be in Devon. The very best UKIP results so far have been in other parts of the country, (eg South Staffs, and Hartlepool) but in Devon there were solid UKIP results in a whole swathe of seats.

This-England · 13-12-2006, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom Wilde

Quote:

Originally Posted by This-England

The BNP got 17% in Barking at the last election.
They must be on around 40% there now.

You'll be able to check their progress in Barking soon. As mentioned in another thread, two BNP councillors there are apparently about to resign due to bankruptcy proceedings, so there will probably be by-elections for their seats early in 2007.

Basically, judging by a string of stories in Private Eye, the BNP in Barking is falling apart spectacularly with in-fighting, resignations and a bit of a scandal involving the group leader (who was also the parliamentary candidate in 2005) having used a false address on his nomination papers for the council elections. There is a lot of other stuff too. I doubt if they are at anything like 17% support there any more, and there is very little chance of them holding those two council seats, let alone winning a parliamentary one there!

I voted UKIP most likely to be first to win a Westminster seat, but I do agree that they'll have to pull all the stops out to get there ahead of the Green Party. I'd say UKIP's first Westminster win is likely to be in Devon. The very best UKIP results so far have been in other parts of the country, (eg South Staffs, and Hartlepool) but in Devon there were solid UKIP results in a whole swathe of seats.

The BNP got 17% in In Barking 1 year before their big council election success.
So the support is bound to be higher now.
I would expect they will win the two by-elections if they happen.
A lot of the stories about them will just be Left Wing smears as they usually are.

This-England · 13-12-2006, 10:35 PM

Barking result last time.

Barking Constituency
Turnout 29,007 (50%)

British National Party- 4,916 votes (17%)
Green Party- 618 votes (2%)
Labour Party - 13,826 votes (48%).
U.K. Independence Party- 803 votes (3%)
Independent- 530 votes (2%)
Conservative Party- 4,943 votes (17%)
Workers Revolutionary Party- 59 votes (0%)
Liberal Democrats Party- 3,211 votes (11%)

Tom Wilde · 13-12-2006, 11:08 PM

Reckon the BNP wil be level-pegging with the Workers Revolutionary Party next time. The two have a lot in common anyway.

View Poll Results: Which Party will be first to gain a Westminster Seat?
UKIP	13	41.94%
British Nazi Party	10	32.26%
English Democrats	2	6.45%
Green Party	6	19.35%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

13-12-2006, 07:23 PM	#1 (permalink)
This-England Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,682	Which Party will be first to gain a Westminster Seat? Which Party will be first to gain a Westminster Seat and where and when will they gain that seat.

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13-12-2006, 07:27 PM	#2 (permalink)
ryansoton Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Southampton Posts: 743 Party: Other	I ahve to say that all parites are along way off returning their first MP but I think UKIP will be first, then Green, BNP. I cant see the ED ever returning an MP.

13-12-2006, 09:12 PM	#3 (permalink)
Christina Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: NW England Posts: 1,521	I think the BNP are closer to a breakthrough because I think more people are willing to stop voting Labour for the BNP, than there are who will stop voting Tory for UKIP.

13-12-2006, 09:26 PM	#5 (permalink)
Independent UKIP Uber Member Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: London Posts: 2,142	It all depends on whether FPTP is maintained & if not what system succeeds it. Under FPTP I'd say Green & if I'm correct probably in this seat: Brighton Pavilion David Lepper Labour 15,427 35.4 -13.3 Mike Weatherley Conservative 10,397 23.9 -1.2 Keith Taylor Green 9,571 22.0 +12.7 Hazel Thorpe Liberal Democrat 7,171 16.5 +3.4 Kimberley Crisp-Comotto UK Independence Party 508 1.2 +0.3 Tony Greenstein Alliance for Green Socialism 188 0.4 +0.4 Ian Fyvie Socialist Labour Party 152 0.3 -1.1 Christopher Rooke Independent 122 0.3 +0.3 Keith Jago Independent 42 0.1 +0.1 Possible that Labour support will fall further, tories maintain their support and Lib Dems transfer to the Greens to get Labour out & ensure tories don't win. Soc Lab & AGS voters would also probably need to vote Green for them to win. Edit: Britannist you submitted your post whilst I was writing/researching mine. We're thinking in the same direction.

13-12-2006, 10:35 PM	#9 (permalink)
This-England Senior Member Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 1,682	Barking result last time. Barking Constituency Turnout 29,007 (50%) British National Party- 4,916 votes (17%) Green Party- 618 votes (2%) Labour Party - 13,826 votes (48%). U.K. Independence Party- 803 votes (3%) Independent- 530 votes (2%) Conservative Party- 4,943 votes (17%) Workers Revolutionary Party- 59 votes (0%) Liberal Democrats Party- 3,211 votes (11%)

13-12-2006, 11:08 PM	#10 (permalink)
Tom Wilde Moderator Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: London. Posts: 2,750	Reckon the BNP wil be level-pegging with the Workers Revolutionary Party next time. The two have a lot in common anyway.