Which Party will be first to gain a Westminster Seat?

Independent UKIP · 13-12-2006, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by This-England

Barking result last time.

Barking Constituency
Turnout 29,007 (50%)

British National Party- 4,916 votes (17%)
Green Party- 618 votes (2%)
Labour Party - 13,826 votes (48%).
U.K. Independence Party- 803 votes (3%)
Independent- 530 votes (2%)
Conservative Party- 4,943 votes (17%)
Workers Revolutionary Party- 59 votes (0%)
Liberal Democrats Party- 3,211 votes (11%)

With no evidence presented you suggest the BNP have 40% support from voting voters at present in this seat. I very much doubt that is correct at all. For Labour to lose this seat to BNP would require a pure 15.5% swing from them to BNP. And no extra support and/or redcued support for UKIP, tories, Lib Dems and others in favour of BNP rather than Labour. Not going to happen Mr BNP mate is it?

And out of interest why do you have an English Democrats avatar when you appear to be here seeking to promote the BNP?

This-England · 14-12-2006, 12:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Independent UKIP

Quote:

Originally Posted by This-England

Barking result last time.

Barking Constituency
Turnout 29,007 (50%)

British National Party- 4,916 votes (17%)
Green Party- 618 votes (2%)
Labour Party - 13,826 votes (48%).
U.K. Independence Party- 803 votes (3%)
Independent- 530 votes (2%)
Conservative Party- 4,943 votes (17%)
Workers Revolutionary Party- 59 votes (0%)
Liberal Democrats Party- 3,211 votes (11%)

With no evidence presented you suggest the BNP have 40% support from voting voters at present in this seat. I very much doubt that is correct at all. For Labour to lose this seat to BNP would require a pure 15.5% swing from them to BNP. And no extra support and/or redcued support for UKIP, tories, Lib Dems and others in favour of BNP rather than Labour. Not going to happen Mr BNP mate is it?

And out of interest why do you have an English Democrats avatar when you appear to be here seeking to promote the BNP?

I have an English Democrats avatar because im a member of the English Democrats.

Adrian Davies · 14-12-2006, 12:10 AM

Under FPTP it will be very difficult for UKIP or the BNP (let alone the EDs) to come anywhere near winning a seat at Westminster. The BNP probably achieves a better concentration of its votes, but is still nowhere near winning a seat. UKIPpers shouldn't flatter their party's prospects by looking at bye-elections, which are an occasion for protest. Even in Devon & Cornwall, UKIP is nowhere near a breakthrough. My prediction is that none of the above will win a single seat at the next general election. The BNP might just take second place in a handful of seats. UKIP will poll reasonably well in its best areas, but will not reach second place (and probably not third place) anywhere. Sad but true.

Unionist · 14-12-2006, 12:16 AM

In response to a query I might have posed myself:

Quote:

Originally Posted by This-England

I have an English Democrats avatar because im a member of the English Democrats.

But he is otherwise happy to support the BNP!

English Nationalists, British Nationalists - all the same really.

Britannist · 14-12-2006, 02:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Independent UKIP

It all depends on whether FPTP is maintained & if not what system succeeds it. Under FPTP I'd say Green & if I'm correct probably in this seat:

Brighton Pavilion

David Lepper Labour 15,427 35.4 -13.3
Mike Weatherley Conservative 10,397 23.9 -1.2
Keith Taylor Green 9,571 22.0 +12.7
Hazel Thorpe Liberal Democrat 7,171 16.5 +3.4
Kimberley Crisp-Comotto UK Independence Party 508 1.2 +0.3
Tony Greenstein Alliance for Green Socialism 188 0.4 +0.4
Ian Fyvie Socialist Labour Party 152 0.3 -1.1
Christopher Rooke Independent 122 0.3 +0.3
Keith Jago Independent 42 0.1 +0.1

Possible that Labour support will fall further, tories maintain their support and Lib Dems transfer to the Greens to get Labour out & ensure tories don't win. Soc Lab & AGS voters would also probably need to vote Green for them to win.

Edit: Britannist you submitted your post whilst I was writing/researching mine. We're thinking in the same direction.

Independent UKIP: What an amazing coincidence

- and we're in the same city too. It must be the London air! 8)

I admire your electoral knowledge 8) and your interest in psephology (the study of trends in elections and voting for anyone who is not totally familiar with that word!).

Regarding the Pavilion result which you kindly posted in detail - obviously some of the Green Party vote were anti-Iraq 'war' protest votes. What the Green Party should be doing now (from there point of view) is trying to get voters to abandon the europhile Liberal Dims and vote Green instead (at the next General Election).

If the Green Party can hold on to most of the voters who only backed them because they were against the Iraq 'war' then they could turn Brighton Pavilion into a three-way marginal.

And that helps UKIP - because it becomes much easier to win as UKIP could do so on about 29% of the vote if the votes for the other parties stack up 'in the right way'.

Of course UKIP would need to substantially increase its vote in the constituency. Which is why it needs to target seats such as Pavilion which are either three-way marginals or which have show the likelihood of becoming a three-way marginal.

UKIP's best chance of winning a constituency is through targeting seats where its support is strong. And the south-coast of England (which includes the Pavilion seat) shows potential for UKIP.

If UKIP is to win a seat in the Commons - it's best chance will probably come in a three-way marginal. And Brighton Pavilion is pretty close to becoming a three-way marginal if the Greens maintain their strength in that seat.

Hartlepool · 14-12-2006, 07:46 AM

Another silly and boring ED/BNP Poll which,as usual,is not in its own area.

If we are to allow recruitment games via polls,they should surely be in the section marked "POLLS" and not appearing as front page ads for the ED/BNP..

That's all. :wink:

rjt · 14-12-2006, 08:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Adrian Davies

Under FPTP it will be very difficult for UKIP or the BNP (let alone the EDs) to come anywhere near winning a seat at Westminster. The BNP probably achieves a better concentration of its votes, but is still nowhere near winning a seat. UKIPpers shouldn't flatter their party's prospects by looking at bye-elections, which are an occasion for protest. Even in Devon & Cornwall, UKIP is nowhere near a breakthrough. My prediction is that none of the above will win a single seat at the next general election. The BNP might just take second place in a handful of seats. UKIP will poll reasonably well in its best areas, but will not reach second place (and probably not third place) anywhere. Sad but true.

I tend to agree, the system is severly biased against partys like UKIP, ED. BNP, Green etc. I suppose with concentrated campaining in certain seats there remains open the possiblity but dont forget all of us in minority partys are aslo fighting against the establishment who will regualry point out we have no chance of winning seats, it is not just the 3 main paryts we are fighting.

Edward Longshanks · 14-12-2006, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom Wilde

Reckon the BNP wil be level-pegging with the Workers Revolutionary Party next time. The two have a lot in common anyway.

Sorry to disappoint you, but it's the Labour Party that's falling apart in Barking not the BNP. With the LibDems and Tories nowhere and UKIP just a joke that's where the first "small party" MP will be elected. And it will be Richard Barnbrook.

Edward Longshanks · 14-12-2006, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hartlepool

Another silly and boring ED/BNP Poll which,as usual,is not in its own area.

If we are to allow recruitment games via polls,they should surely be in the section marked "POLLS" and not appearing as front page ads for the ED/BNP..

That's all. :wink:

And UKIP isn't boring? :shock: I've seen more motivation in the local cemetery! 8)

daft fan · 14-12-2006, 09:40 PM

The British National Party (I assume British Nazi Party was tongue in-cheek...) and UKIP would both make more gains if they worked together. I vote BNP when a councillor is fielded but vote UKIP if one isn't.

The BNP have supported UKIP by telling supporters to vote for UKIP if a BNP candidate is not fielded in their ward => [SNIPPED - no Nazi links please]

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View Poll Results: Which Party will be first to gain a Westminster Seat?
UKIP	13	41.94%
British Nazi Party	10	32.26%
English Democrats	2	6.45%
Green Party	6	19.35%
Voters: 31. You may not vote on this poll

14-12-2006, 12:10 AM	#13 (permalink)
Adrian Davies Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 158	Under FPTP it will be very difficult for UKIP or the BNP (let alone the EDs) to come anywhere near winning a seat at Westminster. The BNP probably achieves a better concentration of its votes, but is still nowhere near winning a seat. UKIPpers shouldn't flatter their party's prospects by looking at bye-elections, which are an occasion for protest. Even in Devon & Cornwall, UKIP is nowhere near a breakthrough. My prediction is that none of the above will win a single seat at the next general election. The BNP might just take second place in a handful of seats. UKIP will poll reasonably well in its best areas, but will not reach second place (and probably not third place) anywhere. Sad but true.

14-12-2006, 07:46 AM	#16 (permalink)
Hartlepool Uber Member Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: North East England Posts: 6,574	Another silly and boring ED/BNP Poll which,as usual,is not in its own area. If we are to allow recruitment games via polls,they should surely be in the section marked "POLLS" and not appearing as front page ads for the ED/BNP.. That's all. :wink:

14-12-2006, 09:40 PM	#20 (permalink)
daft fan Newbie Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 4	The British National Party (I assume British Nazi Party was tongue in-cheek...) and UKIP would both make more gains if they worked together. I vote BNP when a councillor is fielded but vote UKIP if one isn't. The BNP have supported UKIP by telling supporters to vote for UKIP if a BNP candidate is not fielded in their ward => [SNIPPED - no Nazi links please]