Britannist

The europhile Dims have slumped 3% to 14% in the latest opinion poll :twisted: (compared to their share of the vote in a poll by the same polling organisation a month ago).

Communicate Research (for the europhile ‘Independent’ newspaper edition of 29.12.2006) put support for the parties at Labour 37% (up 1%); Conservatives 36% (up 2%); Liberal Dims 14% (down 3%); Greens 5%’; Scottish National Party 2%, British National Party 2%, Plaid Cymru (Free Wales – Welsh Nationalists) 1%; UKIP 1%. Other small parties 2%.

Mike Smithson , Editor of PoliticalBetting (and a Liberal Dim party supporter :x ) was quoted on Conservative Home on 29.12.2006 as having said “Now I think that unless there’s a reversal in the polling trend then Sir Menzies Campbell (leader of the Liberal Dims) might just start to come under pressure."

Europhile Campbell was elected Liberal Dim party leader in March this year following the resignation of Charles Kennedy (as LD leader) in January 2006 after he admitted to having had a drink problem.

Source of figures above: Conservative Home 29.12.2006

The voting breakdown in the ‘Independent’ poll – if it accurately reflected how things will go at the next General Election – would mean Labour would have 352 House of Commons seats; the Conservatives would get 262 Commons seats and the Liberal Dims would slump from over 60 to just 6 seats :twisted: :twisted: .

* A YouGov poll published on Christmas Eve put support for the pro-EU Liberal Dims at 15% (one of its lowest ratings this year :twisted: ).

Britannist adds: The Green party share of the vote is very high (in the latest 'Independent' poll). It seems that David Cameron’s talk about supporting environmental issues throughout 2006 (his first full year as Conservative leader) may have made potential Conservative voters switch to the Greens rather than to him. David Cameron has repeatedly said that the environment is a very important issue. Consequently voters seem to have decided to vote for the ‘real thing’ (the environmentalist Green party) and not for David Cameron’s own brand of ‘green’ politics.

Steve posted the following message to Conservative Home at 11.28 am on 29.12.2006 “Call me simplistic if you like but if the Liberals are slipping and the BNP are achieving 17% in by-elections, what on earth is the Tory (Conservative) party doing positioning itself to the left of centre?” (left of centre means pro-EU )

freedom & democracy 4

Hopefully in a few elections time UKIP will be able to overtake the weak and pathetic europhile Lib Dems to become the 3rd largest party in the UK. After all whos going to vote for Ming Campbell, hes old and grey and well past it.

BASILDON BOY

I wonder if the increase in the Green Party support is because of Cameron making green issues a priority?

If the tories or Labour hade made the EU its major policy then I believe we would be seeing a large increase in support for UKIP.

The EU is just not being mentioned at all. All 3 main parties are refusing to debate the issue.

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Britannist

Exactly. In my first posting to this thread I made the very same point. Talking 'Green' just delivers more votes to the Green Party.

The Lab/Cons./LD parties won't be able to ignore the EU issue come the 2009 EU Election. This should help UKIP at that time.

Britannist

Yes, I'd like to see UKIP/English Democrats replace the vile Liberal Dims as the 'third' party in the Commons and have said so on the forum many times.

As for Liberal Dim party leader Campbell - I am against criticising him for his age - it's his views which are repugnant. He is a lifelong committed europhile. The more the wider public know that the Liberal Dims are a fanatically pro-EU and pro-euro party, the more votes they will lose.

kernow

I'm sorry but we don't have the time of a few elections to overtake the Lib Dems. If UKIP doesn't win seats at the next election, then it is unfortunately finished!

Britannist

I don't think the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists won seats in the first few General Elections they contested. But they continued beavering away and eventually made a breakthrough (against Lab/Cons./Lib. Dims) by winning seats in the Commons. I think the Scottish Nationalists got a record 11 seats in the Commons in one of the 1974 General Elections and nearly pushed the Liberals out as the official 'third' party. If the europhile SNP can achieve that - I see no reason why UKIP or the English Democrats can't.

The chances of UKIP winning a seat at the next General Election are small - unless it targets its six best areas (in terms of votes it receives in local/General/EU elections in those constituencies).

It took Sir Menzies Campbell (the Liberal Dim party leader) four attempts to win the seat he now holds in the Commons. His party targets seats despite it deceitfully trying to give the impression that it is fighting to win in all constituencies. It can barely get together the money, resources and people to put up 'paper' candidates in at least 550 constituencies - and it (the pro-EU Liberal Dims) are severely 'stretched' in most of the other seats.

UKIP needs candidates for its half a dozen key target seats who are prepared to work as equally hard.

For a start, UKIP can forget winning a seat in the Commons unless it has a good, strong local organisation in a target constituency with active ward branches and councillors representing some of those wards on the local authority.

A possible alternative is for UKIP to target a constituency where they have been 'problems'. In last year's General Election campaign, Howard Flight, the Conservative eurosceptic MP, was blocked from standing as Conservative candidate at Arundel by the Conservative leader. This intervention in the internal affairs of Arundel Conservative Association angered many of the local Conservatives to the extent that had UKIP immediately intervened by putting up one of its best candidates in the Arundel seat to appeal to disgruntled Conservatives there is a chance that UKIP may have taken sufficient Conservative votes (and votes from others voting tactically) to win the seat on a three-way split (between official Conservative and Liberal Dim party candidate).

But nothing was done by UKIP as far as I can tell - even though Arundel is part of the traditionally strong UKIP area of south-east England (where UKIP won two seats in the last EU Election). UKIP did not think tactically by pouring in its volunteer workers and MEPs to canvass and to prioritise Arundel as its number one target in the country (at the last General Election).

It might be said that Arundel was an opportunity lost for UKIP. It could have secured massive publicity by pouring everything it had and all its campaigning efforts into Arundel (where the UKIP vote is already one of the largest the party gets anywhere in General Elections).

But instead there was silence from UKIP. The chance of turning Arundel into a two-way Cons.-UKIP seat was lost. Even if UKIP had come second - it would have put UKIP in a very strong position in the Arundel constituency at the next General Election.

kernow

I don't think UKIP has the time that the Scottish and Welsh Nationalists had. The British governments and oppositions were all for Welsh and Scottish Devolution, which is a major step forward in the process of gaining independence. No major British party has ever suggested Britain should leave the EU. British politicians will not help destroy their gravy train! Just imagine earning their salary for less effort that a Tesco part time worker uses! Unless the EU project implodes, the EU aided and abetted by our Treacherous politicians from all three main political parties will outlaw UKIP! So you see UKIP hasn't got time for the "long game"!

Dissident Congress

I am intrigued to know exactly who votes for the Green Party.

The Greens are a very London centric party and about a third of their membership and a high proportion of their senior figures live inside the M25.

mkpdavies

I would say a lot of youngsters do, as they haven't experienced the real world. With all the propaganda being thrown at people at the moment, it's not surprising that a percentage are now seeping off to the party that says it puts the environment above all other issues.

The Greens sadly also have been hijacked by commies, but not in total. I know a number of Greens who are against the EU for instance.

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