steve fowler

Confidence In Brown's labour Government Plummets.

New Poll Questions Government's Economic Competence |Sky News|Politics

eublues

It's wonderful to watch Brown's obsessive lifetime craving for big time power come to this slow death.

Britannist

I don't like Brown's Lie-bour Party any more than you do, EU Blues - but "it's not over 'till it's over" (as they say).

Gordon Brown has nearly three years in which to recover his position and that of his party electorally.

Labour was often well ahead in the opinion polls in the 1980's and early 1990's - but they failed to remove Lady Thatcher and lost against Major in 1992.

The Cameron-Conservatives need an electoral swing larger than that secured by Lady Thatcher in 1979 (when she defeated the Labour Government) to get an overall majority of just one in the House of Commons at the next General Election.

There is much more chance of the Conservatives denying Gordon Brown a large majority (or a majority in the Commons at all) at the next General Election than there is of them defeating him outright.

Labour will have to work hard to keep a working majority at the next General Election, but they should not be 'written off' yet.

What has not been discussed or mentioned is the possibility that if Gordon Brown does not manage to recover Labour's position in the opinion polls enough - he may actually face a leadership challenge in his own party before the next General Election (and not necessarily one from the left of the Labour Party).

rjt

The point about Brown being deprived of his majority rather than an outright defeat is a fair one due to the swing indentified. This could bring about a very unstable situation.

Neverthless I hope we are approaching the fag end of one of the worst if not the worst governments ever to soil the HOC benches.

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Mr Delors said that he wanted the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the community, The Commission to be The Executive and The Council Of Ministers The Senate. NO! NO! NO!
(Margaret Thatcher 30 Oct 1990)

Ignore List: The Prophets of ST Al the Unelectable.

Britannist

It would be nice if this Labour shower were booted out next time.

And yes, they are one of the worst UK Governments to date for so many reasons, including: giving more powers to the EU and breaking their promise to hold a referendum on the EU Constitution; plotting to destroy our ancient Pound; reducing defence spending; devolution; giving out one million UK passports despite a pledge to do no such thing; letting in one million illegal immigrants; allowing SIN Fein into the internal governance of Northern Ireland; denying the people of England equality within the UK; messing up the House of Lords; over 70 tax rises; the smoking ban; reducing Prime Minister's Question Time from two sessions a week to one; unnecessary UK military involvement in Iraq; anti-Christian....and so many other matters.

As I forecast years ago - Blair would turn out to be Neil Kinnock with a posh voice. The views and aims of the two were and remain almost identical.

Britannist

The electoral swing required by the Conservatives to get an overall majority of one in the House of Commons next time is larger than that achieved by the Conservative Party at any point in its history.

However, the swing needed is much less than that which Blair got in the opposite direction at the 1997 General Election.

It is not impossible for the Conservatives to get a very big swing (like Blair did in 1997). If it can happen in one direction, it can happen in the other.

When the electorate have had enough, they've had enough. This is the country whose electors voted Churchill out of office, after all.

If the British people can defeat Winston Churchill in a General Election just after he has won a World War I do not think that Gordon Brown would be at all wise in assuming that election defeat could never happen to him and the rabble around him.

rjt

Agreed the message time for a change can be a very powerfull one, The major government was a disaster for instance so it was certainly a case in point. But major himself joken he would have come second even if he had been the only person to stand in the election because he had stretched the democratic elastic as far as it would go.

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Mr Delors said that he wanted the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the community, The Commission to be The Executive and The Council Of Ministers The Senate. NO! NO! NO!
(Margaret Thatcher 30 Oct 1990)

Ignore List: The Prophets of ST Al the Unelectable.

Britannist

Thank you for your agreement RJT.

I bet Gordon Brown is pulling his hair out in anger at the way the people around him appear to have created problems for him which could have been avoided. The first few months of the Brown Premiership must be just about the worst start for any incoming Prime Minister I can recall. Even John Major had a better start in 1990 than Gordon Brown has had since June of this year.

And Mr. Brown and his strategists must be desperately working now to stop the "time for a change" mood catching on with the electorate. For if (as you imply RJT) it becomes the fashion among the voters (that a change of Government is needed) it will be very hard for Labour to reverse the trend.

I note that the poll in today's Independent (putting Labour 13% behind the Conservatives) was carried out before last night's resignation of the Labour Party General Secretary. I wonder what the post-resignation opinion polls will say. The next one (no doubt out within the next day or too) will make very interesting reading.

rjt

John Major took over when inflation was at 10% and his party was split due to the anger at Lady Thatchers removal and over the EU and the Poll tax.

He had one advantage though, Kinnock was seen as a lightweight, now mr cameron still has much to prove but I have stated on this forum before that it is foolish to underestimate him, he has the hunger in his eyes that I saw in Bliar when he became leader of the Labour Party. Not having the election this year may have played right into his hands he now has a chance to put forward a cohrent alternative agenda.

Whatever people think of Mr Cameron all of us need to acknoneldge that the next Government will be lead by him or Mr Brown so his progress should be closely followed on this forum and elsewhere.

__________________
Mr Delors said that he wanted the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the community, The Commission to be The Executive and The Council Of Ministers The Senate. NO! NO! NO!
(Margaret Thatcher 30 Oct 1990)

Ignore List: The Prophets of ST Al the Unelectable.

arden forester

Steve, as far as this forum goes, I think it has hit the bottom with a bang!

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