HM

What do you think UKIP's percentage of the vote will be in Henley by-election? (And why?)

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HM

I'm saying 2-4%. Indicators don't seem to show that they will do any better than that. Plus the fact that people may still want to give Brown a good kick in the face - for which I don't blame them. So I think it will be the case that, like in C&N, the smaller parties will be squeezed out.

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Earthling

It is a shame, but I think you are probably right.

But the optimist inside me is screaming out that if we put on a really good balanced campaign with equal output of policies OTHER than the EU then we could get nearer 10%

I would be disappointed with anything below 2%

Also we need a campaign focusing more on local issues, not like the Crewe/Nantwich campaign which was basically another "we need to leave the EU" campaign

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HM

, but the Euroscepticism should still take up around 40-50% of our campaigning, I think - if the figures about the number of Eurosceptics are right, the message that UKIP is the premier Eurosceptic party needs spreading. If we drop it completely, people might just ask "aren't you just another pointless little right-wing party?"

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Earthling

40-50% is adequate, perhaps even 60%, but no more

Also I feel we should avoid any "right-wing" comparisons.
If we want broad appeal, draw attention to the fact that we have members from both Labour and Conservative instead.

Right-wing indicates a Thatcherite off-shoot which would appeal only to a minority of voters

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Anthony Butcher

I voted 2-4%, purely on the basis of what happened in Crewe; there doesn't seem to be any suggestion that UKIP will improve its position (2.5% in 2005).

Henley should be a much easier fight than Crewe for UKIP, because the Labour/Tory fight is largely irrelevant there, and there won't be such a squeeze. However, this time UKIP's main rival for the 'fourth' party spot, the BNP, will also be standing. That will eat into the immigration protest vote that UKIP might have expected to pick up there, leaving UKIP to depend on its own core vote instead. The Lib Dems are going to hit Henley hard, and I would expect them to pick up the lost Labour votes.

Had this been a couple of year's ago, I would have perhaps expected 7-10% from a strong UKIP campaign. It will be interesting to see whether UKIP can regain those previously very good by-election results. They could certainly use a strong result.

It will also be interesting to see what kind of campaign UKIP runs. If it focuses solely on immigration and/or the EU, as they normally do, I suggest that my 2-4% prediction is most likely.

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Populist Lee

Incidentally.

The premier "Eurosceptic" party is the Tory Party.
The largest anti-EU party is UKIP.

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HM

True...

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prober

A real target and measure of major success for UKIP would be to beat Labour, which will need about a 10% vote, feeding primarily off betrayed former new Labour voters going to Lib Dem but UKIP actively targeting the Old Labour vote, Tory non Cameron vote, and in particular the Lib Dem pro democracy vote betrayed by the Lib Dem establishment. The wotsit in the woodpile for UKIP is of course BNP which will target Old Labour and non Cameron Tories also and target those that dont vote cos no party represents their concerns. Despite all this , really intelligent thinking stratgey and leaflet and publicity design will enable UKIP to successfully get a message over to appeal to all those it needs to target plus the young voter and pensioners. & it MUST have an answer to show UKIP is relevant for a vote in a safe Tory seat & BNP and other small parties are not. 10% is just about achievable , but the real problem is how UKIP will break out of it's former election mindset to develop the multi aspect messages to the voters that are needed. Also UKIP has to answer the question by the 18% MEP UKIP voters... what have you guys done since I voted for you 2004? . Even Bromley with almost nothing to say in its leaflets to appeal other than to the converted and with Tory abstainers en masse refusing to vote UKIP, resulted in 8% and UKIP beating Labour . Be optimistic.

mrabody

I think you have a good analysis there Prober. Have you spoken to Steve Allison as I believ he is in charge of the byelection campaign. Steve seems to be pretty openminded and would probably be happy to hear any specific suggestions from yourself and others.