UKIP percentage in Henley

Raymond Finch · 06-06-2008, 11:38 PM

I think we have a great chance of getting third.
The BNP candidate will take Labours vote as they have no chance. Those that remain will defect to the LDs as a "Stop the Tories" vote.

I was out with Chris today and people were very receptive to him and his message.

Aardvark · 07-06-2008, 01:14 PM

Henley is an interesting constituency because of its proximity to London, but its complete lack of the social problems. Immigration in the constituency is largely educated EU - computer industry, ESA, high level research and middle class London commuters. They will not be voting, but their friends will and anything that focusses on EU immigration will fall on stony ground.

EU over regulation will gain a response as many people are entrepreneurs and people who have to deal with the EU.

The electorate is one of the most highly educated in the country. Internet usage, as with all of Oxon, is way over 50%, in fact I believe that more than half the electorate have access to broadband.

The issues locally are Townlands Hospital and education (Henley borders Bucks with its grammar schools).

RAF Benson is in the constituency. Many people serve in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Labour's vote will be squeezed. I spoke to a senior Oxon constituency Tory last night and we are seen as likely to take some of the Tory vote. The Tories think Labour votes will go LibDem and their only worry is a swing to the LibDems (the LibDems dumped their local candidate so might have shot themselves in the foot). Tories expect to win with a strong LibDem push. The Green candidate is a friend of mine and he helped me leaflet when I stood as an Independent for the first time (as did aarable); I reciprocated in Oxford to get Labour out. Oxford has a lot of Greens who will be out in force. BNP had a council candidate in the constituency and will make a push. I reckon Labour will lose their deposit.

Anthony Butcher · 07-06-2008, 02:55 PM

That over confidence of the Tories should really provide an opportunity for UKIP.

harryaldridge · 07-06-2008, 06:20 PM

Just spent the day campaigning in Henley and Goring. I would be tempted to increase my predicted result based on the surprisingly warm response we received today.
It would seem many people voted for Boris, not Conservatives, and don;t much like the new guy. Doubt anything amazing will happen but certainly a lote of personal votes up for grabs.

Anthony Butcher · 07-06-2008, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by harryaldridge

Just spent the day campaigning in Henley and Goring. I would be tempted to increase my predicted result based on the surprisingly warm response we received today.

Is there any particular aspect that people responded to the most? Immigration, EU, local issues, post offices etc

Raymond Finch · 07-06-2008, 06:56 PM

When I was out with Chris on Friday the entire message from Chris was going across well. I don't think the Tory vote is particularly motivated.
We won't win but we will do better than our enemies predict.

HM · 07-06-2008, 07:23 PM

Does anyone on the ground know if the BNP pose any threat?

Populist Lee · 07-06-2008, 08:47 PM

When is the deadline for Nominations?

I shan't make a guess at the percentage till I know who's standing.

It might be better to think about the Share of the Vote the non-Lib/Lab/Con will get and then deduce the Share of that percentage UKIP could get.

Everyone else got 5% in total in Crewe and Nantwich and UKIP got a bit under half of that.
How do you reckon it will pan out in Henley?

harryaldridge · 07-06-2008, 09:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher

Is there any particular aspect that people responded to the most? Immigration, EU, local issues, post offices etc

Sleaze, post offices, tax, immigration, cost of EU, smoking ban, the whole lot. People, particularly young people and new voters, questioning what difference Cameron could make. Most seem to see him as just another version of Labour. Extremely interesting.

Chris had two conservative party members come up to him a few days ago and say "we're conservative members, but what we're doing is wrong. We're voting UKIP"!!! And that was right under the nose of a bloke in a blue rosette who apparently looked most disturbed.

Not seen a response like it before. Whether it will translate into votes remains to be seen, but certainly it feels like a shift in attitude towards us compared with other campaigns I have been involved with.

As I say, not necessarily ground breaking, but feels like progress.

Populist Lee · 07-06-2008, 09:20 PM

So far 70% of you don't think UKIP will save it's Deposit.

Of those I understand to be UKIP . . .
7 think UKIP will
6 think UKIP won't.

View Poll Results: What percentage of the vote do you think UKIP will get in the Henley by-election?
0-2%	11	23.40%
2-4%	18	38.30%
4-6%	7	14.89%
6-8%	7	14.89%
8-10%	3	6.38%
Over 10%	1	2.13%
Voters: 47. You may not vote on this poll

07-06-2008, 01:14 PM	#12 (permalink)
Aardvark Moderator Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Oxonia Posts: 3,515	Henley is an interesting constituency because of its proximity to London, but its complete lack of the social problems. Immigration in the constituency is largely educated EU - computer industry, ESA, high level research and middle class London commuters. They will not be voting, but their friends will and anything that focusses on EU immigration will fall on stony ground. EU over regulation will gain a response as many people are entrepreneurs and people who have to deal with the EU. The electorate is one of the most highly educated in the country. Internet usage, as with all of Oxon, is way over 50%, in fact I believe that more than half the electorate have access to broadband. The issues locally are Townlands Hospital and education (Henley borders Bucks with its grammar schools). RAF Benson is in the constituency. Many people serve in Afghanistan and Iraq. Labour's vote will be squeezed. I spoke to a senior Oxon constituency Tory last night and we are seen as likely to take some of the Tory vote. The Tories think Labour votes will go LibDem and their only worry is a swing to the LibDems (the LibDems dumped their local candidate so might have shot themselves in the foot). Tories expect to win with a strong LibDem push. The Green candidate is a friend of mine and he helped me leaflet when I stood as an Independent for the first time (as did aarable); I reciprocated in Oxford to get Labour out. Oxford has a lot of Greens who will be out in force. BNP had a council candidate in the constituency and will make a push. I reckon Labour will lose their deposit. __________________ When in Woking do as the Wokes do. "I do not wish to form my opinions by thoughtlessly quoting others; I wish others to support their opinions by sensibly quoting me." Paul Wesson (Aardvark) 13th April 2008

07-06-2008, 02:55 PM	#13 (permalink)
Anthony Butcher Administrator Join Date: Sep 2004 Location: Long Ashton, Bristol Posts: 9,659 Party: None	That over confidence of the Tories should really provide an opportunity for UKIP. __________________ If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled! Label My Food - http://www.labelmyfood.org.uk

07-06-2008, 06:20 PM	#14 (permalink)
harryaldridge Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: West Sussex Posts: 1,904	Just spent the day campaigning in Henley and Goring. I would be tempted to increase my predicted result based on the surprisingly warm response we received today. It would seem many people voted for Boris, not Conservatives, and don;t much like the new guy. Doubt anything amazing will happen but certainly a lote of personal votes up for grabs. __________________ http://vindicovindico.blogspot.com Vote Harry Aldridge (PPC and MEP)

07-06-2008, 07:23 PM	#17 (permalink)
HM Senior Member Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 768 Party: None	Does anyone on the ground know if the BNP pose any threat? __________________ Respice post te; hominem te esse memento!

06-06-2008, 11:38 PM	#11 (permalink)
Raymond Finch Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 476	I think we have a great chance of getting third. The BNP candidate will take Labours vote as they have no chance. Those that remain will defect to the LDs as a "Stop the Tories" vote. I was out with Chris today and people were very receptive to him and his message.

07-06-2008, 06:56 PM	#16 (permalink)
Raymond Finch Member Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 476	When I was out with Chris on Friday the entire message from Chris was going across well. I don't think the Tory vote is particularly motivated. We won't win but we will do better than our enemies predict.

07-06-2008, 08:47 PM	#18 (permalink)
Populist Lee Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Dorset Posts: 1,886 Party: Other	When is the deadline for Nominations? I shan't make a guess at the percentage till I know who's standing. It might be better to think about the Share of the Vote the non-Lib/Lab/Con will get and then deduce the Share of that percentage UKIP could get. Everyone else got 5% in total in Crewe and Nantwich and UKIP got a bit under half of that. How do you reckon it will pan out in Henley? __________________ ENGLISH POPULISM Stands as the only obstacle in the path of the Plutocrats who seek to reduce all the Peoples of the World to Economic and Political Slavery under Globalism POPULISM MEANS WHAT YOU WANT IS WHAT YOU GET

07-06-2008, 09:20 PM	#20 (permalink)
Populist Lee Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: Dorset Posts: 1,886 Party: Other	So far 70% of you don't think UKIP will save it's Deposit. Of those I understand to be UKIP . . . 7 think UKIP will 6 think UKIP won't. __________________ ENGLISH POPULISM Stands as the only obstacle in the path of the Plutocrats who seek to reduce all the Peoples of the World to Economic and Political Slavery under Globalism POPULISM MEANS WHAT YOU WANT IS WHAT YOU GET

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