Britannist

Poll news for 'Yellow' Labour - the party running away from both a General Election and a referendum on the EU Constitution (EU 'Amending' Treaty):

“It was the News of the World wot stopped it” claims Conservative Home (the source of the figures below).

Gordon Brown is said to have decided today against calling a November 2007 General Election as soon as he heard the results of a News of the World ICM poll to be published tomorrow which forecast that had he gone ahead with an election next month – Labour would have LOST FIFTY SEATS.

This would have resulted in a hung Parliament with Labour 25 seats short of overall control. There are likely to be about 28 MPs in small parties (not including the europhile Liberal Dims) in the House of Commons after the next General Election.

Such an election result would almost certainly have created a Parliament with a small majority of MPs in it in favour of a referendum on the EU Constitution (EU ‘Amending’ Treaty).

Other findings in the ICM poll for tomorrow’s News of the World include:

77% disapprove of Labour's record on immigration.

63% of its law and order performance.

62% disapprove of Labour on tax.

More than half (52%) give Labour the thumbs down on the NHS.

When he became Prime Minister in June, Gordon Brown was seen as strong – now he is seen as weak having ‘chickened-out’ of calling an Autumn General Election.

Brown was seen as a statesman above politics – now he is seen as calculating: looking at opinion polls rather than dealing with running the country.

Brown was seen as serious – now he is seen as trivial: someone who is willing to use the nation’s armed forces for photo opportunities.

Britannist

Britannist

arden forester

A hung parliament, eh? Just what I thought! Brown saw the dilemma. Let's see how he gets out of this one. Quite a lot of drawing in breath no doubt!!

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Britannist

Yes, Arden - Gordon Brown has looked into his crystal ball and - to his horror - seen the vision of a hung Parliament in it: with him on bended Knee pleading for the support of Sir Menzies Campbell.

I'm not suprised he's gone cold on the idea of an early election.

We could have told him ages ago that a hung Parliament is possible when his Labour Party has an overall majority (nominal - on the new boundaries) of 50. Meaning, of course, that David Cameron's Conservatives only have to win in 25 seats for Labour to lose their overall majority in the Commons.

And such a result could have shortened Mr. Brown's career as Labour leader somewhat.

Apparently Labour's own polling in marginal seats in the last day or two has found alot of support for the Conservative plan (announced at the Conservative Party Conference this week) to get rid of the inheritance tax (on under £1 million).

I think the person to fear the most as a result of Gordon Brown's decision not to go for a November 2007 General Election is Sir Menzies Campbell. According to one poll out tomorrow his party is down to 11% - their lowest rating in an opinion poll for six years.

The europhile Liberal Dims now have the time to change their leader before the next General Election if they want to and this could affect overall voting patterns.

Britannist

More information on the ICM poll in the News of the World today (referred to in the first posting to this thread):

Voting intentions in 83 marginal constituencies:

Conservatives 44%
Labour 38%
(no figure for the europhile Liberal Dims yet)

If the above voting intentions were repeated at a General Election, Labour would have 306 seats in the House of Commons (losing its overall majority) and the Conservatives 246.

At the moment Labour have 356 seats in the House of Commons and the Conservatives 198 seats.

Source of the above figures: ITV 1 Television news 11.50 pm, 6.10.2007.

Britannist adds: Labour would hold more seats than the Conservatives (on the basis of the above opinion poll figures) in the House of Commons despite receiving fewer votes than the Conservatives because the Labour vote is distributed 'more efficiently' in marginal constituencies.

The following is from TalkSport radio at 0001 hours today (7.10.2007):

49 Labour MPs would lose their seats in a November 2007 General Election, the News of the World poll claims - including Jackie Smith (Home Secretary) at Redditch.

Britannist

The Sunday Times says today (brief extract) "Having whipped the country into a frenzy over the prospect of a snap election, Gordon Brown called the whole thing off at the 11th hour yesterday."

Gordon Brown dithers to the very last - Times Online

Britannist

Iain Dale, Conservative candidate at the last General Election, said on his blog (brief extract from the section dated 6.10.2007) "Make no mistake, David Cameron has got out of jail free. He has achieved the greatest political escape in modern history. Few of us would have been confident of a Tory victory, and Brown's decision has given the Party a chance to fight another day. Brown will give all sorts of excuses for not calling the election - state of the elctoral register, blue tongue, foot and mouth, boundaries in Northern Ireland not ready, not in the national interest, blah, blah, blah, but no one will believe a word of it. Because everyone really knows that the reason Gordon Brown hasn't called an election is because he couldn't be confident of winning it.

* Brown's people are already spinning against Douglas Alexander (a Minister), according to Adam Boulton (of Sky News), alleging that it's all his fault."

rjt

The only PM that would call an Election on the back of these polls would be one who had too. Brown has missed a goldern Opportunity which he may I hope come to regret.

__________________
Mr Delors said that he wanted the European Parliament to be the democratic body of the community, The Commission to be The Executive and The Council Of Ministers The Senate. NO! NO! NO!
(Margaret Thatcher 30 Oct 1990)

Ignore List: The Prophets of ST Al the Unelectable.

Britannist

Perhaps he should have settled into his new job as Prime Minister during July and early August and then called a General Election towards the end of August (just as people were returning to mild weather after their Summer holidays abroad). The election would have been held at the end of September with light evenings (better for a higher turnout) and before the party conference season (in which the Conservatives were able to announce their potentially vote-winning inheritance tax policy).

One advantage that Gordon Brown does have in not going for an Autumn 2007 General Election is the fact that his tax cuts will start to show through in people's pay packets from next April.

He also does not now have to fight a November General Election with the EU Summit on the hated EU Constitution (EU 'Amending Treaty') right in the middle of the election campaign.