Forecast

Britannist · 04-10-2007, 06:45 PM

ITV 1 Television news has reported that a big cut in the Labour lead in opinion polls is now expected (the report on the following link implies the same) - it is now viewed by some political correspondents that the chances of Gordon Brown calling a General Election for next month are a bit lower if Conservative support has increased a bit:

Labour poll slump cuts chances of snap election in November | the Daily Mail

Britannist · 04-10-2007, 07:11 PM

Labour lead cut from 11% to 4% says new opinion poll taken after Tory Conference

Britannist · 04-10-2007, 07:41 PM

Columnist Peter Riddell writes in today's Times (brief extract):

"...the “bring it on” attitude of Mr Cameron is not just empty bravado. Many Tory MPs think, rightly, that a November election could backfire on Gordon Brown. He could end up either with a hung Parliament, or almost as bad, a majority of only about 20 to 25. His gamble would then be seen to have failed. It could be the mirror image of 1992 when the Tories were well ahead of Labour in share of the vote (by 42 to 35%), but won a majority of only 21. The Brown honeymoon would be over, and the Tories would feel they were on the way back."

Britannist · 04-10-2007, 07:57 PM

Brief extract from today's Times:

"There will be a bounce in the polls, that's for sure," said one senior Tory official, observing that the Conservatives went up five points even after the 2002 conference."

The Conservatives, of course, went on to lose the May 2005 General Election (heavily).

Britannist · 04-10-2007, 08:12 PM

The Channel Four poll was carried out by YouGov on and between 3 - 4 October, 2007 - 1174 people were questioned.

The number who said that they wanted an Autumn General Election is up 7% to 36%.

"Beware of polls taken in the party conference season" Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University told Channel Four news this evening.

Speaking on Channel Four television news, two Labour MPs in marginal Labour seats advised against a General Election this Autumn.

Andrew Dismore (Hendon, London) and Derek Wyatt (Sittingbourne, Kent) implied that they thought Gordon Brown should not call an early General Election.

Britannist · 04-10-2007, 08:36 PM

Peter Riddell, columnist (quoted earlier in this thread), also writes in today's Times (brief extracts):

"As Populus and other polls have shown, a clear majority of the public thinks Mr. Brown is more prime ministerial and stronger than Mr. Cameron, and they are not sure what the Tories would do in office. Most voters also do not think Mr. Cameron cares about the problems ordinary people face, or has answers to the big problems facing the UK. The Tories....are primarily engaged in damage limitation for themselves and a spoiling operation on Labour. They are not yet really preparing for Government."

Britannist · 04-10-2007, 08:50 PM

New opinion poll shows support for Conservatives is up 5% as Labour vote share falls

Britannist · 04-10-2007, 10:06 PM

Labour and Conservatives level-pegging in new opinion poll

kernow · 04-10-2007, 10:14 PM

BBC text news Lib Dems on 13% others on 11%, COME ON WE OTHERS!

Britannist · 04-10-2007, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kernow

BBC text news Lib Dems on 13% others on 11%, COME ON WE OTHERS!

There are many people who vote for the europhile Liberal Dims who would join the "others" category as and when they learn about the real policies of that party - that it is pro-EU, anti-Pound and strongly in favour of the UK being swallowed up into the EU Superstate now under construction.

04-10-2007, 06:45 PM	#1 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	Forecast - Labour poll lead to be cut by half ITV 1 Television news has reported that a big cut in the Labour lead in opinion polls is now expected (the report on the following link implies the same) - it is now viewed by some political correspondents that the chances of Gordon Brown calling a General Election for next month are a bit lower if Conservative support has increased a bit: Labour poll slump cuts chances of snap election in November \| the Daily Mail Last edited by Britannist; 04-10-2007 at 06:49 PM.

04-10-2007, 07:11 PM	#2 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	Labour lead cut from 11% to 4% in new poll Labour lead cut from 11% to 4% says new opinion poll taken after Tory Conference

04-10-2007, 07:41 PM	#3 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	Times, Brown, Cameron, Labour, hung Parliament Columnist Peter Riddell writes in today's Times (brief extract): "...the “bring it on” attitude of Mr Cameron is not just empty bravado. Many Tory MPs think, rightly, that a November election could backfire on Gordon Brown. He could end up either with a hung Parliament, or almost as bad, a majority of only about 20 to 25. His gamble would then be seen to have failed. It could be the mirror image of 1992 when the Tories were well ahead of Labour in share of the vote (by 42 to 35%), but won a majority of only 21. The Brown honeymoon would be over, and the Tories would feel they were on the way back."

04-10-2007, 07:57 PM	#4 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	Polls, bounce, conference, Conservatives, General Election 2005 Brief extract from today's Times: "There will be a bounce in the polls, that's for sure," said one senior Tory official, observing that the Conservatives went up five points even after the 2002 conference." The Conservatives, of course, went on to lose the May 2005 General Election (heavily).

04-10-2007, 08:12 PM	#5 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	Channel Four, YouGov, Professor John Curtice, Labour MPs, Dismore MP, Wyatt MP The Channel Four poll was carried out by YouGov on and between 3 - 4 October, 2007 - 1174 people were questioned. The number who said that they wanted an Autumn General Election is up 7% to 36%. "Beware of polls taken in the party conference season" Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University told Channel Four news this evening. Speaking on Channel Four television news, two Labour MPs in marginal Labour seats advised against a General Election this Autumn. Andrew Dismore (Hendon, London) and Derek Wyatt (Sittingbourne, Kent) implied that they thought Gordon Brown should not call an early General Election.

04-10-2007, 08:36 PM	#6 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	Brown, Cameron, Government, damage limitation Peter Riddell, columnist (quoted earlier in this thread), also writes in today's Times (brief extracts): "As Populus and other polls have shown, a clear majority of the public thinks Mr. Brown is more prime ministerial and stronger than Mr. Cameron, and they are not sure what the Tories would do in office. Most voters also do not think Mr. Cameron cares about the problems ordinary people face, or has answers to the big problems facing the UK. The Tories....are primarily engaged in damage limitation for themselves and a spoiling operation on Labour. They are not yet really preparing for Government."

04-10-2007, 08:50 PM	#7 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	"New opinion poll shows support for Conservatives up 5% as Labour vote share falls" New opinion poll shows support for Conservatives is up 5% as Labour vote share falls

04-10-2007, 10:06 PM	#8 (permalink)
Britannist Uber Member Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: London Posts: 22,896	"Labour and Conservatives level-pegging in new opinion poll" Labour and Conservatives level-pegging in new opinion poll

04-10-2007, 10:14 PM	#9 (permalink)
kernow Uber Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 5,183	BBC text news Lib Dems on 13% others on 11%, COME ON WE OTHERS!

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