Tom Wilde

Well, if there is a snap election, we're up against it.

UKIP has some popular policies (particularly on the EU) but I don't have the impression that UKIP is strategically well placed to make the breakthrough that it needs and to win a seat. In order to do that, I think we'd need to see strong UKIP constituencies where UKIP now had a sizeable group of district or borough councillors. In fact, the biggest UKIP council group in the country at district/borough level only has two councillors. Basically although there were some encouraging signs in the 2007 local elections we need several more years to build up strength in local elections before we could realistically hope to win a Westminster seat. And if Gordon denies us that time by holding an election in a few weeks, then he will probably win - because Cameron has screwed it up and there is little prospect of him turning things around in such a short time. With a fresh mandate and a decent working majority, Brown will have several unchallenged years in which to push through the EU constitution without a referendum and without any UKIP voice in the House of Commons to protest. This would be a disaster for the independence of our country.

I can think of one strategy which might even things out a little in the election campaign. I'm sure few will agree with me, but what the heck.

I think Farage should phone Cameron asap and cut a deal.

I think the deal should be: UKIP stands down its candidates in a very large number of Tory seats/Tory target seats, in return for the Tories standing down their candidates in a small number of UKIP target seats (probably mostly LibDem-held seats in Devon and Cornwall.)

UKIP should be completely straight with the public about the reasons for this deal - saying that it isn't an alliance, that we strongly disagree with Cameron on many issues, but that to promote the views of our supporters we need to get into parliament, and that this the only realistic way to do it under the current system. UKIP should also point out that maximising the number of Tories + UKIP MPs elected is the only realistic way to oppose the EU constitution given that Brown is breaking Labour's promise to hold a referendum. It should urge UKIP voters in seats with no UKIP candidate to vote Tory. The Tories would be expected to reciprocate by urging Tory voters to support UKIP in the approriate seats.

This will probably increase the tally of Tory seat by about 20 MPs, compared with what they otherwise would get, and it might possibly result in the election of between 1 and 5 UKIP MPs as well. If Labour have a poorer than expected election campaign, this could be enough to derail the EU constitution. And UKIP would be in parliament, with everything to play for for the future.

OK, you can shoot me now...

RTSTN

Very honest post.

In another thread I said that before the next Euro election some UKIP MEPs will attempt to jump ship to the Tories in an attempt to retain their seats.
Hoping to have some sort of vague promise of a referendum about UK's membership of the EU to justify their move to the Tories.

What you have wrote only reinforces this idea.

Wide scale cooperation with the Tories what you are suggesting would see many ex Tory UKIPers return to the Conservative party.

Cameron is as much a Euro fanatic as Brown, if UKIP did do what you suggest then UKIP might as well call it a day.

Britannist

What a coincidence - I covered something very similiar to the above scenario only yesterday evening in posting number 8 at:

A Stray Result

Westcountryman

Hardly a stray result. I'm actually disappointed that with the absence of any real opposition, UKIP still lost to the LDs.

__________________
Manus haec inimica tyrannis ense petit placidam sub libertate quietam - "This hand of mine, which is hostile to tyrants, seeks by the sword quiet peace under liberty."

Anthony Butcher

An interesting idea, but if I was a Tory strategist, I might be thinking that losing a general election now (with the likelihood of winning the next one)was preferable to giving UKIP any credibility via a deal and the opportunity of winning any seats. In the long term, given that they are barely hanging on to their right wing, the last thing they will want to do is provide a credible alternative home for all of their eurosceptic members and activists. In other words, while there might be some short term gain for them, they risk an all out split in the long run. As long as UKIP is ignored by the media, plagued by in-fighting and rarely gets any election results it poses little threat.

__________________
If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled!
Label My Food - http://www.labelmyfood.org.uk

Michael Heaver

The Conservatives would never play ball. And I wouldn't blame them.

youcanhandlethetruth

If the UKIP try to play the mainstream at their own game, they will inevitably lose. Your only chance is to understand the plan for the New World order and spread the word, via the internet, like in America where Ron Paul has overwheling support of the majority, but remains censored by major mainstream media, who install those ghaslty electronic voting machines that are rigged.....
If people are worried about mass immigration, right to jury, habeus corpus and a miltary EU police state they will not go along with the mainstream lies - stands to reason !
And we need to understand the implications of an EU in the longer term, if you know what I mean....

Raymond Finch

I would resign immediately if we were to support any pro-EU party.
Cameron is AT LEAST as pro-EU as Brown. I don't see what the attraction is with the Tory party.
Who first applied for us to join the European Project?
Who brought us in to it?
Who signed Maastricht?
Not for me under any circumstances.

B.A.Ware

Tom why would UKIP standing down increase the amount of seats the Tories win?

__________________
We’re not just about Europe.

ANGLO-STAFFS

I agree. It may also reinforce some peoples idea that UKIP is really just a hostel for Cam Cons taking a political gap year.