Britannist

A few interesting figures:

Before the 1997 General Election was called Labour's lead over the governing Conservatives was 17.7%.

Labour's lead fell back once the General Election had been called and the actual Labour lead after polling stations had closed was 12.8%.

Before the 2001 General Election was called Labour's lead over the opposition Conservatives was 14.2% - Labour went on to win that General Election with a lead over the Conservatives of 9.3%.

The Conservatives reduced a Labour lead of 5% (before the 2005 General Election was called) to 2.3% when voting actually took place.

The current Labour lead, according to the details of three opinion polls published today/tomorrow (carried out by Populus, YouGov and ICM) is between 3% and 4%.

This means that if Labour Prime Minister did call a General Election to be held next month the Labour lead could be wiped out on polling day.

However, a poll published by the Sun newspaper a couple of weeks ago showed that if Gordon Brown agreed to hold a referendum on the EU Constitution (EU 'Amending' Treaty) it would massively increase support for Labour (the poll revealed that 49% would vote Labour - 17% more than the number who pledged to back the Cameron-Conservatives).

In other words - if Gordon Brown wants to be sure of winning a General Election with a majority as large (or even bigger) than the one he has now, he needs to let the British people have a say on the EU Constitution.

If Brown does say Yes to a referendum on the EU Constitution, then the prospect of a referendum being held on the same day as a General Election in November 2007 could not be ruled out.