Aardvark

Even if we were to vote to leave now I think we'd still need 2 years or more just to get the paperwork sorted out.

If UKIP/Eurosceptic movement were to win a majority of seats at the next election we still have to go through all 3 readings in Parliament to withdraw. We would have to form a Government, have the opening of Parliament (Queen's Speech) with a full programme of legislation for the Parliamentary session. We could probably suspend our payments, but the counter would be that return payments to us would be suspended likewise. That would require an emergency finance bill to put in place replacements for 'subsidies' and grants already agreed and committed - bankrupting the entire farming population on day one is a non-starter. The emergency finance bill would need to be preceded by a white paper to assess what money was needed, where, when and by who. This would take time.

As stated some people are planning to jump off the Titanic with no idea what happens next.

It is actually the presentation of clear policies and financial calculations that will persuade people we are serious. The idea that we could have a general strike when most of us can't get our deposits back at GEs is risible.

If we want to win we must have a credible, well thought out plan. This is what is lacking and this is why we won't be taken seriously. If we go canvassing and people on the doorsteps ask us for our plan I would hazard a guess that, as we have no policy, each of us would answer differently.

The Bear makes some important points that seem to be wasted. M3, I agree, we need time to prepare for change and, if we don't want to trash the economies of our EU trading partners (still going for free trade), so do the rest of the EU.

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When in Woking do as the Wokes do.

"I do not wish to form my opinions by thoughtlessly quoting others; I wish others to support their opinions by sensibly quoting me." Paul Wesson (Aardvark) 13th April 2008

Millennium3

In truth A - we must acknowledge that the anti EU movement is not going to have any real power after the next GE and if UKIP remains the leading anti EU party until then - without moving to the centre ground - there will not be a single anti EU party MP either. However, if there should be a change of heart or another centrist anti EU party should replace UKIP as the lead party - there is some hope that some MP's could be elected [particularly if immigration continues to be the greatest concern for the electorate].

If such a springboard could be established, the movement would have until the following GE to sharpen up on the issues you raise [still before QMV with luck].

Ea of Dune

I disgaree with you there vastly, that's such an unfounded defeatist attitude. I could write an eassay here (as I'm sure many others could) on why I believe Britain could go it alone, and if a complete split of the UK happened how England could go it alone. I won't bore you though .

One thing history has taught is is that Empires built on force eventually collapse, it might take 6 years, 100 years or 500 years but eventually they will fall apart.
The Greeks, Rome, Eqypt, Japan, Great Britain, France, Germany, Assyria, Persia the list goes on and on. I believe even eventually Chinas pseudo-communist dictatorship will collapse. The more middle class and wealthy Chinese that start to emerge will change the social demographics in China and I can't see the Communist party holding onto control there once they reach a certain stage in their economic development.

The EU will be the same....

Ea of dune

Millennium3

Do you accept that the LT will effectively put paid to any hope of an English Parliament, Independent or as part of the UK? If so is your final comment meant to mean that the 'English Movement's' plans are to be kept in store until the EU disintegrates - if not what do you see as the stages through which your goal will be achieved?

The Bear

We live on a grossly overpopulated island with a huge dependency on imports, and dependency is the right word, and a massive amount of debt that is growing day by day.

It would have been possible to have split from the EU 25 odd years ago with some pain.

It would have been possible to split from the EU 15 years ago with massive pain.

Today it simply would not be possible.

We are already in deep trouble as a result of New Labour running the nation on a sea of rising debt and making no attempt to either curtail the spending or formulate a way to reduce our dependency on an ever increasing selling off of what little we had left that would be bought or establishing anything that would address our huge balance of trade deficit.

Given the starting out position that we would find ourselves in, let alone how much worse it would become as a result of disinvestment following a declaration that Britain would be leaving the EU let alone how much the pound would fall on the foreign money markets and what THAT would do to our import bill there is sadly no prospect whatsoever of Britain pulling out of the EU without the collapse of our nation.

Then there is the effect that all the changes and reduction in standard of living would have on the immigrant population. Let alone what the knuckle draggers would do if they thought that the immigrant population were doing better in the face of what the rest of the population had to put up with.

The world has seen what that did in Germany during the Weimar Republic and what grew out of it.

I do wonder if that alone is not a key motivator for the BNP is pursuing their anti - EU stance, the hope that what emerges would be a thing they could capitalise on in the way that the Nazis did when Germany faced what she did post 1918.

This is not about defeatism, this is about facing reality.

The reality of where we stand today and in the foreseeable future in my opinion is that now our best if not only option is to set our caps towards getting the very best from our EU membership as can be got.

The alternative is a thing that in reality not one of us would want.

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I am an old man. I have eaten much salt.

Millennium3

Although, as I have indicated, I believe that it is possible to get out of the EU, although the chances are fading fast and it would be painful. Where I do agree with you however, is that the refusal of those who wish to achieve this end to face any kind of reality - if the UKIP supporters on this forum are representatives of the party as a whole - the party consists mainly of fantasists.

Ea of Dune

With regards to the LT possibly. I think we have to remember though if we get an English Parliament after the LT is ratified, a lot of this will have to do with how the political masters in Brussels combined with Westminster decide to play it.
If they see it as easier to placate the English by abolishing the regional assemblies and granting England a devolved parliament, I believe they would possibly go that route, and then back the smaller seperatist movements that may emerge in the future (e.g. Cornwall).

As I understand it the way voting in the EU works is that it's possible for three large countries e.g. Germany, France and the UK to trump the will of say eight smaller countries based upon the fact the big three have a higher population.
I'm of the opinion, that although the EU may be able to benefit from this, in the longer run it actually poses a bigger problem, hence why they are attempting to split countries down into smaller units.

As for how the English movement should play it? I see the UK as a lost cause for starters, Scotland will enevitably pull away under an SNP led government, and I'm sure the EU will sweeten their deal if they decide to do this, partially because the EU would benefit from the natural resources and terrortry and secondly because a small nation such as Scotland would have zero chance without ganging up with other nations of throwing it's weight about within Brussels if a law is passed they don't like.

The English should be doing everything within their power to make sure they can either force a unified English parliament in the future or take over a Brussels created English parliament.

How ever I see our biggest hope for the future not coming from politics or violence, but through other channels!

Ea of dune

davidnoakes

Bear, were you unable to assimilate any of the first post on this thread?

With £167 billion EU quango control costs, £100 billion EU regulation cost, 1/4 of our economy is now wasted by the EU.

We are the 5th largest economy among the world's 200 independent nations. If the other 199 can survive, why shouldn't we, particularly if we also get to keep the £267 billion the EU is now forcing us to waste?

We also wouldn't be forced to waste £34 billion pa on loss making trading with the EU.

Why is this so difficult for you?

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Unionist

That is called trade. We have a deficit with some countries and a surplus with others. It is not some sort of tax or levy; we receive goods and services for this money, hence it is a mutually beneficial relationship. It is also not a 'national' issue but a matter of thousands of individual transactions in which companies and individuals participate freely. The idea that we "waste £34 billion pa on loss making trading" is nonsense in economic terms.

I would not support any individual or party opposed to free trade and indeed my objection to the EU is partly that it is too protectionist. Your comment above tells me everything I need to know about your agenda.

The Bear

The qwango costs are British Government qwango costs, NOT EU qwango costs. The claim that the blossoming of quangos is down to the EU is simply incorrect.

This government more than any other has delegated a huge amount of things to be done, some useful, most useless to qwango’s which the British government then fund.

The result is that the actual costs of the services delivered by the qwangos’s are mostly hidden and when things go wrong the government can claim “not our fault, it’s THEM!” and point at the qwango concerned.

Stop funding the qwango’s and most of the cash will still have to be spent anyway.

Because our large economy is about economic activity and that activity is only supported on a mass of ever rising debt.

We face a double whammy.

Firstly the costs of servicing the huge public debt that Brown has piled up so spectacularly would have to come from taxation, secondly the year on year budget would need to be funded by taxation, and unless there are fresh sources of income coming into Britain as a result of foreign trade surpluses, that ain’t going to happen.

Only by full membership of the ECB and being a full member state of the EU can we possibly look at a future that doesn’t put is into the same camp as the Dominican Republic ….. sans the bananas.

Then there is the so called cost of 100 billion on meeting EU regulations. Another bit of deliberate spin. The cost are far and away mostly in meeting international standards.

For us to sell into the international marketplace we need to meet international standards. The old BSI counts for nothing any more. Today it’s all about international standards. We pay the price to comply if we are in or if we are out of the EU.

We don’t comply, we don’t get such business that we are in a position to bid for, and there’s precious little of that anymore.

What loss making trading with the EU?

What has happened is that we no longer produce the manufactured goods to sell into the EU, and our invisibles are going down the pan as well. That’s not an EU thing, that’s simply the change in the pattern of global trade.

Noticed what’s taking place in the far east? Looked at the rating plate on most domestic appliances recently? Seen where for example John Deere plant is made? Where most ships are built? At the name on the engines of those ships?

Looking for a “made in England” label?

Try a pot of clotted cream.

Not difficult for me, difficult for those who set out with the idea that everything suddenly gets better the moment we sever ties with the EU. Or those who don’t UNDERSTAND the whole picture.

The EU is our least worst future.

Our being a member state of the USE in the same way as say West Virginia is within the United States of America.

Poor, little of worth to sell to the rest, and were it not for federal support they receive, would be populated by paupers.

THAT is what our future outside of the EU would be.

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I am an old man. I have eaten much salt.