Tony Bennett

About 80% to 90% of the country want a referendum on the E.U. Treaty/Constitution.

Roughly the same percentage as those who...

* oppose continuing mass immigration
* want tougher sentencs on criminals
* want to keep using British weights and measures
* want to keep the pound.

Will we get a referendum?

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The BBC said this on their website today:

"The British Sunday papers are divided in their reactions to the agreement reached on the EU constitution".

They listed 8 newspapers.

In fact it was 6 to 2 in favour of a referendum:

Against: Observer, Mirror

For: Sunday Telegraph, Sunday Times, Mail on Sunday, Express, News of the World, Independent on Sunday.

In terms of circulation, the two against have a circualtion of less than 2 million as against a circualtion of around 9 million of those favouring a refrendum.

A more accurate BBC report should have read: "Most British Sunday papers favour a referendum on the EU constitution - with only the Observer and Sunday Mirror saying that one is not necessary".


PREDICTION: The pressure on Brown to hold a referendum will increase, as the shoddy Berlin deal unravels still further - and popular demands for a referendum increase rather than decrease, and campaigning groups (hopefully including UKIP) pile on the pressure. We will get a referendum, win it, and thus precipitate the greatest crisis yet in our relationship with the E.U.

I see one much less attractive possible alternative.

Brown calls a General Election during the enxt 12 months, saying that if Labour win it, they will sign up to the Treaty/Constitution, i.e. it is part of their election manifesto.

Then Labour wins...


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Westcountryman

My prediction:

Brown will not give a referendum, and nobody will care enough in 2010 that they didn't get one to vote him out. Just as everybody still voted Blair in 2005, despite all his lies over Iraq.

Once the treaty is implemented, all the main parties who wanted a referendum will conveniently forget this fact and continue as normal (ie. not scrap it).

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Manus haec inimica tyrannis ense petit placidam sub libertate quietam - "This hand of mine, which is hostile to tyrants, seeks by the sword quiet peace under liberty."

Independent UKIP

I sure don't rule that out but it would be tough for Brown to get away with as Blair promised a referendum in the last manifesto. As Brown is seeking to be more democratic (putting it very simply) than Blair, to go into the next election reversing the promise of a referendum does not sound likely. If the IGC agrees a treaty getting it through the H of C with minimum debate/votes (aided by the Speaker) seems likely. A Final reform of the Lords would solve that problem in getting it through but then I don't recall how Amsterdam & Nice got through the Lords under Blair. Can the current Lords reject the act which brings the treaty into law? If so why didn't that happen the last 2 times?

rob mills

are you all sleeping soundly? all politicians are coherant liars. it doesnt matter what they say today, it will always be something different next week.
of course Brown wont give us a refferendum. and he will call an election by june next year.
it will be in his manifesto. so you all know what hthe answer is dont you, vote the ******** out.

Britannist

I've just voted No (in the poll at the top of this page). I take the view that there's more chance of Elvis being found alive than there is of Brown facilitating a referendum on the EU Constitution (re-heated version).