Thread: Big vote for Northern Irish MEP who has strongly criticised the EU

Originally Posted by Larry08

So it turns out my knowledge of the Northern Irish demographic was spot on.

It "turns out" that your so-called knowledge is subject to tunnel vision.

Apart from the fact that you had never even heard of the 1973 'Border Poll' referendum (until I told you) you fail to understand that just because there is a Protestant majority in a particular Northern Irish constituency it does mean that a Unionist candidate is automatically elected.

I reiterate - some Roman Catholic in NI vote Unionist and this is helping replace the votes of Protestants who vote Alliance or who do not vote at all.

Larry08: I believe I have now blown that myth out of the water.

You believe wrongly then don't you? It is not a myth for the reasons I give in this posting and in others here before now.

For someone who claims to be an atheist keen to avoid reference to religious denominations you are spending an inordinately large amount of time on the subject.

The link you give in posting 59 to this thread does not work. The figures you give on the religious denomination of people in Unionist-held constituencies (in posting number 59) are not relevant to this discussion.

My point is clear - and you refuse to accept obvious facts. Let me again repeat it (for the benefit of other readers - you have no intentions of facing the fact that Roman Catholic Unionism has existed in Northern Ireland for the last 90 years or more) -

Several Unionist MPs in the House of Commons representing Northern Irish (NI) constituencies did not win their seats on non-Roman Catholic (RC) votes alone. Some Protestants will not have voted in those constituencies and others will have backed the Alliance Party. Consequently, the fact that a minority of RC voters in those seats backed the Unionist was enough to ensure victory for the Unionist candidates.

If 85% of Protestants back a Unionist candidate but s/he is just short of victory then the votes of a minority of RC electors will secure the seat for the Unionist.

One person who got some RC votes was The Late Enoch Powell (former Ulster Unionist MP for Down, South) who was quite understandably popular with many RC electors.

Originally Posted by British-Conservatism

Less than 1% of Catholics vote Unionist - I've told you this many times.

...and I have made clear many times that the Roman Catholic (RC) Unionist vote is higher than that in at least three Westminster Constituencies represented by Unionist MPs.

Many in anti-UK Sinn Fein acknowledge the existence of a significant RC Unionist vote in parts of Northern Ireland (NI).

British-Conservatism wrote: NI Assembly constituencies are multi-member.

So? A minority of RC people still vote Unionist to a greater or lesser extent in a majority of the NI Assembly constituencies.

One person who said he got the votes of a noticeable minority of RC voters was the man in the picture next to your avatar - The Late Enoch Powell: former MP for the NI Down, South constituency. You are clearly in disagreement with him on this point.

Originally Posted by Britannist

I did not refer to a Roman Catholic (RC) majority.

I wrote that in at least three Northern Ireland (NI) Westminster constituencies it is not possible for Unionist candidates to win on non-RC votes alone.

I am correct.

Bear in mind that some Protestants do not vote and that some choose to back the Alliance Party. Consequently, the fact that, say, 10% of RC voters choose to support a Unionist is the deciding factor in whether a Unionist gets elected or not in a constituency where the non-RC vote available to a Unionist candidate is not quite high enough for her/him to win.

This applies not just to several Unionist-held Westminster Parliamentary seats it is also the case in a number of NI Assembly constituencies and council wards.

Sorry but you are still wrong. In the 2 constituencies that have over 40% Catholics the DUP sailed home with a clear majority. They had 13935 votes in North Belfast ahead of SF with 8747. In Upper Bann DUP 16679 with SF on 9305. The other seats have such huge protestant majorities it's not worth my while hunting the figures. If you reduce the DUP votes in these constituencies by 20% they still win. Oh Alliance votes in North Belfast 438 and in Upper Bann 955. So it's pretty obvious their vote wasn't decisive.
Figures are on many sites for you to check.

Originally Posted by British-Conservatism

The NILT results also suggest that 5% of Roman Catholics would vote for the nominally Unionist Alliance Party....Catholic support for any of the main Unionist parties at less than 1%. What do you not understand about the above?

What do no not understand about the plain fact that a minority of Roman Catholic (RC) voters (5% in some areas - 10% or over in other localities) back Unionists?

I am not referring to polls or surveys.

I am stating an electoral fact accepted for many years by leading political analysts: it is not possible for several Unionist MPs in Northern Ireland to win their constituencies on non-Roman Catholic votes alone.

Those MPs get most - but not all - of their votes from non-RC voters but the support of a minority of RC electors help them win/hold those constituencies.

Hopefully this link will work
NINIS | Area Profile Report

Ok link works. Check figures yourself if you like.

Originally Posted by Larry08

In the 2 constituencies that have over 40% Catholics the DUP sailed home with a clear majority.

The Roman Catholic (RC) electorate is higher than you appear to think in a number of Northern Irish Westminster constituencies.

You are desperately searching around to find irrelevant reasons to avoid facing the fact that (as many in Sinn Fein accept) there is a Roman Catholic Unionist vote in Northern Ireland which is helping several Unionist MPs hold their Westminster seats.

As Oliver wrote earlier in this thread, Dr. Ian Paisley MP has secured the electoral support of some RC people in his constituency.

Originally Posted by Britannist

The Roman Catholic (RC) electorate is higher than you appear to think in a number of Northern Irish Westminster constituencies.

You are desperately searching around to find irrelevant reasons to avoid facing the fact that (as many in Sinn Fein accept) there is a Roman Catholic Unionist vote in Northern Ireland which is helping several Unionist MPs hold their Westminster seats.

As Oliver wrote earlier in this thread, Dr. Ian Paisley MP has secured the electoral support of some RC people in his constituency.

Please show me some evidence of this. I have tried and succeeded to back up my claims on this subject. Again I ask you. Which 3 Unionist MPs were elected because of Catholic support. You tell me which ones and we'll look at the figures.
The figures I have given so far come from a Govt. website, not some figures picked out of the air with no backing.

Originally Posted by Larry08

Ok link works. Check figures yourself if you like.

I know already what the size of the Roman Catholic electorate is in Northern Irish Westminster constituencies. I am not preoccupied with it though. I am making a clear and obvious point accepted for many years by political analysts: not all Roman Catholics in Northern Ireland are republicans or 'nationalists'.

Many in Sinn Fein accept that there is a Roman Catholic Unionist vote.

A minority of Roman Catholics vote Unionist in a majority of Northern Irish constituencies/wards.

The Late Enoch Powell, former Ulster Unionist MP for Down South said that a significant number of Roman Catholics voted for him in that marginal seat.