Thread: Local Elections 09: national voting figures similar to year before Labour 05 victory

I think that the media are in the tank for Cameron by and large, and unlike Kinnock, I just can't see him cocking it up enough to throw it away. Admittedly I'm going against past trends, but it is a different situation with different voters. You have to remember that in the celtic fringe, as well as in some parts of England, loyalty to Labour has been eroding steadily since the 1970s due to the emergence of the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and smaller national parties.

There's a new generation of voters out there, who (if they can be bothered) will probably have little party loyalty, no memory of Thatcher, and approaching the first election since 1992 where the Tories are actually offering an opposition. I would personally hate to see the Conservatives in power, but I'll be amazed if they don't win the next General Election.

Originally Posted by rjenks

........loyalty to Labour has been eroding steadily since the 1970s due to the emergence of the SNP, Plaid Cymru, and smaller national parties.

Even if that is true, this did not stop Labour from winning General Elections twice in 1974; in 1997, 2001 and in 2005 (Labour won the last General Election eleven months after getting almost the same share of the vote in the 2004 EU Elections as it secured in yesterday's local elections).

rjenks wrote: There's a new generation of voters out there, who (if they can be bothered) will probably have little party loyalty, no memory of (Lady) Thatcher, and approaching the first election since 1992 where the Tories are actually offering an opposition.

Support for the Cameron-Conservatives fell 6% in yesterday's local elections - despite all the current problems for the UK Labour Government. If the Labour Government manages to improve its political position there are many who would say that yesterday's Conservative local election share of the vote is not likely to increase at the next General Election.

rjenks wrote: I'll be amazed if they don't win the next General Election.

Europhile Neil Kinnock was amazed, as Labour opposition leader, when he failed to win the May 1992 General Election - many opinion polls had forecast that he could win it.

Originally Posted by Britannist

Even if that is true, this did not stop Labour from winning General Elections twice in 1974; in 1997, 2001 and in 2005 (Labour won the last General Election eleven months after getting almost the same share of the vote in the 2004 EU Elections as it secured in yesterday's local elections).



Support for the Cameron-Conservatives fell 6% in yesterday's local elections - despite all the current problems for the UK Labour Government. If the Labour Government manages to improve its political position there are many who would say that yesterday's Conservative local election share of the vote is not likely to increase at the next General Election.



Europhile Neil Kinnock was amazed, as Labour opposition leader, when he failed to win the May 1992 General Election - many opinion polls had forecast that he could win it.

You make very good points, and I admitted in my original post that there are a lot of variables going against me in my assumption. However, I think that Labour are in a terrible position and have a lot of left and right wing competition for the working class vote, who in many cases will have avoided being tarnished by the fallout of expenses.

Originally Posted by rjenks

You make very good points....

Thank you for your kind comment rjenks.

rjenks wrote: I think that Labour are in a terrible position...

I hope UKIP beat them in the 2009 EU Election.

Gordon Brown could improve the position of the Labour Party straight away by agreeing to a referendum on the hated EU Constitution Lisbon 'Treaty' and by dropping the plan for ID cards - but he will not do so.

Interesting thread .

As a Labour supporter (Don't kill me!), I was quite distraught by yesterdays results and felt that a conservative victory next year was all but a certainty. However, there is still hope... I think people have had enough of Labour rather than wanting the Conservatives in power.

If Labour were to drop ID cards, hold a referendum on Lisbon and drop plans to part-privatise Royal Mail. That, in addition to a rebranding and an uplift in the economy, would mean a Labour victory.

We shall see.

Slacker: You could find a better avatar than the one of the EU flag you are using here on this anti-EU forum.

Slacker wrote: If Labour were to drop ID cards, hold a referendum on Lisbon and drop plans to part-privatise Royal Mail...........in addition to a rebranding and an uplift in the economy, would mean a Labour victory.

As you know Slacker, the Labour Government has up to a year before a General Election is held. In 1974 the Labour Party returned to Government and then retained power in two General Elections held within eight months of each other.

It is possible for Labour to win the next General Election or for it to emerge as the largest party in the House of Commons after the next General Election.

The Cameron-Conservatives need a swing in their direction larger than any the Conservative Party has secured in the modern era in a national election just to get an overall majority of one at the next General Election.

I wonder how many of those forecasting a Labour defeat at the next General Election are actually placing bets at the bookmakers on there being a Cameron-Conservative majority after June of next year?