MEP seat re-allocation for EU elections 2009

harryaldridge · 14-05-2008, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher

Region	Electorate	Recommended seats	Current seats	Change
East Midlands	3,286,291	5	6	-1
Eastern	4,199,344	7	7	0
London	5,105,517	8	9	-1
North East	1,943,700	3	3	0
North West	5,188,098	8	9	-1
South East	6,120,852	10	10	0
South West	3,947,772	6	7	-1
West Midlands	4,039,240	6	7	-1
Yorkshire & the Humber	3,775,307	6	6	0
Wales	2,243,703	4	4	0
Scotland	3,877,229	6	7	-1
Northern Ireland	1,070,282	3	3	0
Total	44,797,335	72	78	-6

According to these changes, if the 2004 election result was repeated...

UKIP would lose 2 (west mid & east mid)
Cons would lose 1 (london)
Labour lose 2 (north west & scotland)
Lib-Dems lose 1 (south west)

PETWINA · 14-05-2008, 11:21 AM

The London electorate in the above table(as at 31.12.06) had by the time of the recent GLA election swelled to well over 5.4m.
The Electoral Commission attribute this to their campaigns to empower more people to vote buit then it could be down to level of fraud.

Anthony Butcher · 14-05-2008, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by harryaldridge

According to these changes, if the 2004 election result was repeated...

UKIP would lose 2 (west mid & east mid)
Cons would lose 1 (london)
Labour lose 2 (north west & scotland)
Lib-Dems lose 1 (south west)

Actually, I ran the numbers and if UKIP maintained its vote, I don't think that it would lose any seats. I might be wrong though.

In the East Midlands, UKIP's vote is still more than twice the Lib Dem vote, so the Lib Dems would lose out.

In the West Midlands, I think that it would be the third Tory seat that would have been lost.

British-Conservatism · 14-05-2008, 05:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher

What I can't really understand is why they didn't just merge Yorkshire with the North East. It seems silly to have such a small region (North East), and the more regions there are, the less proportional the results are.

In Germany the European election is conducted as one giant electoral region.
It should be like that here.

blueblood1920 · 14-05-2008, 06:03 PM

If we went on the London results for the Euros would I be right in thinking the seat distribution would be something like this:

Party Votes Seats
Conservative Party 835,535 - 1 3 6

The Labour Party 665,443 - 2 4 8

Liberal Democrats 275,443 - 5

Green Party 203,465 - 7

British National Party 130,714 - None

harryaldridge · 14-05-2008, 06:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher

Actually, I ran the numbers and if UKIP maintained its vote, I don't think that it would lose any seats. I might be wrong though.

In the East Midlands, UKIP's vote is still more than twice the Lib Dem vote, so the Lib Dems would lose out.

In the West Midlands, I think that it would be the third Tory seat that would have been lost.

Anthony, take a look at the BBC Vote 2004 site BBC NEWS | In Depth | Vote 2004 | UK European Election Result

Look at each region in turn. Because seats are allocated to parties by the d'Hondt system the party picking up the last seat is not always the smallest. My calculation simply looks at the seat allocation in the regions which are losing a seat, and eliminates the MEP who was allocated that final regional seat.

Anthony Butcher · 14-05-2008, 07:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by harryaldridge

Anthony, take a look at the BBC Vote 2004 site BBC NEWS | In Depth | Vote 2004 | UK European Election Result

Look at each region in turn. Because seats are allocated to parties by the d'Hondt system the party picking up the last seat is not always the smallest. My calculation simply looks at the seat allocation in the regions which are losing a seat, and eliminates the MEP who was allocated that final regional seat.

I don't think that they are listed in the order that they were allotted.
BBC NEWS | In Depth | Vote 2004 | East Midlands European Election Result

The Tories came first in the East Midlands, so the first name on the list should be a Tory, not Derek Clarke. I can't work out how they listed them though... it certainly isn't alphabetical.

nowayjose · 07-08-2008, 04:43 PM

West Mids R/O Derek Bennett sent out a email which asked the Elec' Comm if there was a possibilty if the region would get a 7th MEP. Apparently, if Lisbon is somehow ratified the UK will get an extra MEP

arden forester · 07-08-2008, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anthony Butcher

It is a minimum requirement for each region.

That confirms that the EU is not really about proportional representation, but more about political expediency. It's OK for the US Senate having two senators per state because that's designed to give the smaller states equal status. This is about giving smaller regions an advantage, which is not quite the same thing.

I'd half expect the seats to be reduced in England so as to keep out minor parties. I believe the three main parties (with a track record of rusty rails and dodgy dealings) do this at their peril. If we end up with manipulated election results, the public (or a good part of it) will erupt in fury!

prober · 12-08-2008, 11:43 AM

Only 10 months to go so ref current national politics and BBC website, serious predictions for 2009 become more important. These must not only extrapolate but build in reasonable assumptions of change in party support. Obvious ones are increase in the 4.9% national BNP vote, further decline in the 22.6% national Labour vote, and change up and down in "left" and "right" minor party capability which wont win seats but take votes off those that do. The first big question is where does vote loss/gain go to and from and 2nd big question is that on the basis of a reasonable scenerio , how vulnerable is UKIP to losing seats and what % and where does it need to boost it's vote to get any more ?

So number crunchers please come up with something so we can rush down to Ladbrookes.

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14-05-2008, 11:21 AM	#12 (permalink)
PETWINA Member Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 155	The London electorate in the above table(as at 31.12.06) had by the time of the recent GLA election swelled to well over 5.4m. The Electoral Commission attribute this to their campaigns to empower more people to vote buit then it could be down to level of fraud.

14-05-2008, 06:03 PM	#15 (permalink)
blueblood1920 Senior Member Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Liverpool Posts: 1,139 Party: BNP	If we went on the London results for the Euros would I be right in thinking the seat distribution would be something like this: Party Votes Seats Conservative Party 835,535 - 1 3 6 The Labour Party 665,443 - 2 4 8 Liberal Democrats 275,443 - 5 Green Party 203,465 - 7 British National Party 130,714 - None

07-08-2008, 04:43 PM	#18 (permalink)
nowayjose Junior Member Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: West Midlands Posts: 19 Party: UKIP	West Mids R/O Derek Bennett sent out a email which asked the Elec' Comm if there was a possibilty if the region would get a 7th MEP. Apparently, if Lisbon is somehow ratified the UK will get an extra MEP

12-08-2008, 11:43 AM	#20 (permalink)
prober Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 836	Only 10 months to go so ref current national politics and BBC website, serious predictions for 2009 become more important. These must not only extrapolate but build in reasonable assumptions of change in party support. Obvious ones are increase in the 4.9% national BNP vote, further decline in the 22.6% national Labour vote, and change up and down in "left" and "right" minor party capability which wont win seats but take votes off those that do. The first big question is where does vote loss/gain go to and from and 2nd big question is that on the basis of a reasonable scenerio , how vulnerable is UKIP to losing seats and what % and where does it need to boost it's vote to get any more ? So number crunchers please come up with something so we can rush down to Ladbrookes.