22ANDUK

As the 'Lists' are being drawn already...

Currently the make-up of the UK representation to the European Parliament (England, Wales and Scotland) is:

(Elected 2004)

Conservative 27
Labour 19
UK Independence 12 (Since then UKIP has lost Ashley Mote, Tom Wise and Robert Kilroy-Silk.)
Liberal Democrat 12
Green 2
SNP 2
Plaid Cymru 1

Going by current trends, how will next year's results turn out?

I'd go for:

I would probably expect the Tories to round up a couple more, on the back of pure anti-Labour feeling and if still in office, anti-Gordon Brown resentment.

The Liberal Democrats will be keen to go for the 'Paddick' effect and stand well-known figures not from traditional Lib Dem territory - many Lib Dems and Brian Paddick himself feel a bit 'robbed' that their 'master-stroke' was over-shadowed by the Boris Johnson/Ken Livingstone duel. However, might see a squeeze and no gains/losses for the party - maybe even 1 loss.

Labour won't suffer greatly - but stand by for a few culls, perhaps 3 or 4.

UKIP will 'technically' lose 3 seats - but as these 3 will have all been held by Kilroy-Silk (who will lose or won't stand), Wise and Mote it won't be a great loss. There might be a change of personnel, but I reckon UKIP will have a breath of life for these elections. If they falter, a possible reduction of 2 though - if the bounce of 2004 cannot be repeated seeing the party return to pre-2004 days.

The Greens will stabilise, no gains more than 1. No change for Plaid Cymru or the SNP - busy as usual.

As for breakthroughs. Respect will put up the big gun of George Galloway (obviously scared that he'll soon be losing his Bow seat and its perks - hence his standing for the London Assembly), and might mobilise the joint socialist/islamic vote enough to secure their first MEP. It will be a close-run thing again for the BNP, who will fancy their chances - not sure where but will probably push for one in the capital (after the GLA results) or the north. The English Democrats will go for it too, doing well in South East and South West, but just not enough mileage for a seat.

What do you think, big changes or a few amendents?

Michael Heaver

Honestly, I'm really not too sure. I've stated UKIP getting 21 MEP's before, but that'd be best case scenario I think.

The way I see it, people want to give Labour a kick-in but the EU is IMO the achilles heel of Cameron's New Tories project. It's the one subject that his shy approach to policy is especially prevalent (broken EPP group promises and TE BIZARRE against-but-for-if-in-power-maybe Lisbon Treaty position). With the LibDems finally revealing themselves to be spineless altogether, I hope for a big swing in UKIP's direction once more.

What we need to remember is this: a year before the 2004 Euro elections, who would EVER had seen UKIP quadrupling its representation and beating the LibDems? Politics is volatile, and the Lisbon 'Treaty' debacle is going to do us no harm in terms of emphasising the importance of the EU in many people's eyes in 2009.

I really, really think that 2009 could be the making of UKIP.

Anthony Butcher

Do we know what the thresholds are for getting MEPs elected in each region? That could have a major effect.

There are going to be less seats available, I believe, so that will put the squeeze on every party.

Interestingly, due to the large constituencies, it makes it much easier for parties like UKIP with a wide spread of support, to gain seats than parties with localised support, such as respect and the Greens.

Having said that, I expect to see the Tories hold their position or gain a couple, depending on how much they can milk the referendum issue. The Lib Dems will hold their own I suspect, picking up the disillusioned Labour voters. Labour will drop 5 or 6 I think, taking up most of the seat reductions. UKIP will drop to 6-8 I expect, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a BNP MEP somewhere.

That's assuming that UKIP can recreate some serious levels of media interest in the EU. The fact that they handed the ball to the Tories over the Lisbon Treaty isn't going to help at all. If the next EU election becomes about the referendum, then it is the Tories who are going to be in the strong position and UKIP will be playing catch-up.

I haven't seen any evidence of UKIP either maintaining its current 12 or increasing its seats. However, it is very difficult to tell, given that the EU is UKIP's specialist subject and there aren't any related elections in between EU elections. I just can't see how UKIP can do so well again without recreating the media storm of 2004.

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indigo

Anyone who looks at the "12" and says "UKIP can improve on 12" is deluding themselves. The RKS factor has long gone, and UKIP has fared poorly in almost every election since then.

UKIP would have real trouble winning seats, even without the BNP (who will be able to mount a much bigger campaign than last time) cutting into its share of the vote.

The BNP will likely win a few seats, and UKIP will stop the BNP winning any more. UKIP itself won't win anything. It will just be the final sad battle of attrition between UKIP and the BNP.

For no reason at all, some people believe that things will magically resurge for UKIP, and it will suddenly become organised and focussed. From its dismal election performances, suddenly its vote share will rise from nowhere to some much larger number, and it will win seats.

This will not happen.

2009 will be the end for UKIP, as it loses all its MEP's. The party will begin the slide into irrelevance (and cannibalisation by the BNP) shortly after that.

prober

UKIP will need to inspire the electorate to the extent it has not tried since 2004, except that this time " Just say No" wont work.

For those who lent their vote to UKIP 2004 as fresh party on the block, what reasons can UKIP give for them voting UKIP again instead of some other party ? I know its not like for like but it seems national media coverage of UKIP in the past year had zero positive effect in vote terms on local elections 2008.

A 5 year wave of new voters 18 to 23 will be on the roll who dont know 2004. What has UKIP got to say to them ? Instead of a priority 5 years ago to get a youth wing up and running to penetrate universities at locals and build up young perception , Del gets blown out and YI was not ready for May 2008 and is still finding its feet .

We need a bookie channel with odds quoted week by week.

Independent Working Class

The RKS factor may be gone, but UKIP now have the RUSTIE LEE FACTOR! LOL

former 'celeb' PLUS she is black (innit?). If Rustie stood for election again it gives UKIPers the chance to chant their mantra: "We're not racist!".

Harbinger

Shouldnt UKIP boycott the Euro elections? or at least refuse to take up their seats or send their big fat pay cheques back?

Isnt it ironic that the low turnout means it's the only election where you have a prayer of getting anyone elected?

Anthony Butcher

I was thinking about my prediction for the EU elections and started looking at the numbers. UKIP will need at least 13-14% in any given region to secure an MEP there. I have to say that it is not unimaginable for the party to receive a respectable 10-12% across the country and get no MEPs at all.

I haven't seen anything to suggest a massive drop of support for UKIP, but nor have I seen anything to suggest that they will make the same number of votes as last time. Without the RKS boost and the media interest, I can see UKIP's average vote dropping from 16% to 12% or less very easily. That might just put them back down to three MEPs - one each in the South East, East Midlands and South West for example.

It all depends on the media interest in the run up to the election. Those few percentage points are incredibly important. While the system is supposed to be proportional, the fact that there is a 13% minimum (roughly) to get that first seat is going to make it tough. 13% is a very high percentage for a small party.

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marcus

What do you think the turnout will be like? Should be interesting

Anthony Butcher

Well, I suppose that the Labour voters will stay at home and the Tory voters will come out to give Labour a kicking. Overall, I imagine it will be about the same as last time.

The real key for UKIP is whether it can keep some of those Tory voters who switched and pick up a lot of the protest votes from former Labour voters.

Farage's talk of doubling the number of MEPs is just nonsense at the moment. Unless he has a secret master plan (i.e. another Kilroy) to get UKIP an average of 25% or so across the country, I can't see any chance of this happening.

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If you care about what's in your food and where it comes from, then get it labelled!
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