a swansong 4 europe

Antony, you have not seen anything to suggest a drop in support for UKIP? Are you having a laugh? Where have you been for the last 4 years?

UKIP performs badly at almost all opportunities it gets, and only in a few - few well fought campaigns does it make any sort of breakthrough. Have you just completely missed what happened in London this year and Scotland/Wales last year in PR elections? UKIP's vote is CRUMBLING everywhere, and by the Euro 09 poll, the largely Tory dissident vote that UKIP has been dependent on will march straight to box marked "Tory".

UKIP will be lucky to hold onto any seats north of Watford, and could easily be reduced to a rump of just one or two in the South East and South West 'regions'. The great "surge" that perhaps you or others are hoping for has been and gone, and it's likely to get worse from now on.

Anthony Butcher

Don't confuse the local and national elections with the EU elections. The EU is UKIP's specialist subject.

Don't forget that UKIP achieved about 2.34% IIRC in the general election of 2005. The recent election results in London were roughly the same, and the local election results were much better. This suggests that the core support for UKIP remains at about the 2005 level.

Admittedly the Kilroy saga happened between the 2004 and 2005 elections but that should only have had a limited effect on UKIP support.

So I haven't seen anything to suggest a massive drop of support for UKIP in the EU elections, simply because there is no measure for it.

Having said that, as you point out, nor have I seen anything to suggest that UKIP will come anywhere near mustering the media interest that it did last time. It may be that all of those UKIP voters have since become used to voting for other parties again. It could also be that those people will now take part in the big Cameron versus Brown fight instead.

My point in the posting above was that UKIP's level of support is largely irrelevant. All that matters is whether it can breach the 13% bracket in every region (other than the North East). If it got 14% everywhere, it would have nine MEPs, if it got 11% everywhere it would have no MEPs (probably).

I will say with some certainty that UKIP won't get two MEPs in any areas, since that would require something like 22-25% of the vote.

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Shaun

The Times is predicting a massive fall in the UKIP vote and that Nick Griffin will become an M.E.P.
Is the worst yet to come for Labour? | Tim Hames - Times Online

Alex McKee

The same was said of 2005 just prior to the General Election. It did not happen. It was said again just before the 2006 local elections. Again, the BNP did not breakthrough like they hoped and again there was no dramatic meltdown for UKIP.

Give it up. I know it's a wet dream of every BNP activist to access the resources and respectability of UKIP but it's never going to happen. Thankfully.

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Independence Now!

The only reason why Mr Griffin didn't become an MEP in 2004 was because of a snide and frankly pathetic Establishment media effort to divert potential BNP voters away to UKIP hence the reason why all the press gave UKIP a massive publicity boost in the few weeks before that election and then stopped mentioning your party as soon as this objective was achieved.

Shaun

Yes you're right,that's exactly what happened.

Just before the Euro's the B.B.C.'S political editor in the North West predicted that if the BNP received 110-120,000 votes,Griffin would be elected.

In the event the party received 136,000 but it's vote share was pushed down by UKIP ,who that same editor predicted might get 22-25%-never likely in this region.

Alex McKee

Let's get one thing straight: the media do not act en masse. They are divided amongst themselves even more than UKIP!

The reason UKIP got coverage in 2004 was that we were notable. We will get attention in 2009 as well. The question is whether the bad publicity for UKIP in the meantime has damaged our chances and whether the reduction in MEP numbers for England will decrease our number of MEPs even if we get similar levels of votes.

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Anthony Butcher

I don't think that negative publicity really makes a lot of difference. While the cumulative effect can really take the shine off, I would suggest that UKIP's main problem is not being talked about. It gets so few mentions in the media outside of political programmes and columns that the public are left pondering whether the party still exists as a meaningful force.

I would expect the Tories now to start preparing a robust sounding line on the EU. And they will bring up the referendum again once we get closer to the election. I think that a large number of those Tories who voted for UKIP last time will now look towards kicking Labour by backing the Tories again.

As I mentioned above, if UKIP loses just three or four percent of the vote, it could be down to two or three MEPs.

I think that UKIP need to target firstly the disaffected Labour voters who don't want to vote Tory really, and the Tory voters who genuinely support UKIP's position in large numbers. If they can convince enough people that a Tory win is guaranteed, then they will be more likely to vote for UKIP.

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Shaun

Here are the Euro results from the North West of England.
Even if UKIP polled the same again 11.7%,it's doubtful it would keep it's M.E.P.,but it might prevent Nick Griffin becoming an M.E.P.
BBC NEWS | In Depth | Vote 2004 | North West European Election Result

HM

There's a lot of doom and gloom about this post. But I will give my optimistic and maybe foolish judgement anyway:
* There will be no major surge for the BNP as most of the public detest their ideology
* To actually get more voters UKIP will undoubtedly need to get a celeb again. I'm not just saying this for effect - that is just how fickle the public can be (viz. Kilroy). And we do have James Whale on our side
* The Tories need watching. As long as UKIP mentions plenty of times the fact that they are pro-EU we should prevail.
* UKIP certainly will need to address this "don't vote Cameron just to give Brown a kick in the face" thing and it will need the widest ever campaign.

The 2009 Euros are undoubtedly going to be a pivotal moment in UKIP's history.

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