Hurricane season 2007 is near the record low of 1977

mkpdavies · 25-10-2007, 10:22 AM

Hurricane season 2007 is near the record low of 1977 « Watts Up With That?

Quote:

Florida State University’s COAPS (Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies) says that hurricane season 2007, which ends November 30th, is looking well below normal, in fact they are calling it “historic inactivity”.
According to COAPS: “Unless a dramatic and perhaps historical flurry of activity occurs in the next 11 weeks (ACE is based on calendar year, not traditional June-November hurricane season) , 2007 will rank as a historically inactive Tropical Cyclone year for the entire Northern Hemisphere. During the past 30 years, only 1977, 1981, and 1983 have had less activity to date (Jan-December). For the period of June 1 - October 19, 2007, only 1977 experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity.”

Hurricanes are so yesterdays disaster to blame on MMGW.

gc · 30-10-2007, 05:20 PM

Your 'source' does not state what is "normal". Looks like a clear upward trend to me...

"One sunny day does not a summer make..." or however the saying goes.

Besoeker · 30-10-2007, 09:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc

Your 'source' does not state what is "normal". Looks like a clear upward trend to me...

"One sunny day does not a summer make..." or however the saying goes.

une hirondelle ne fait pas le printemps

Westcountryman · 30-10-2007, 10:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc

Your 'source' does not state what is "normal". Looks like a clear upward trend to me...

"One sunny day does not a summer make..." or however the saying goes.

An upward trend? Looks like it peaked in 2004 to me and we're now on a downward trend. 2004 didn't get close to 1992 either.

Clippo · 31-10-2007, 09:01 AM

ModernUKIP,
Some explanation of time series data:-

Any one time unit can have a value of the response way above or below it’s neighbours, but over a longer period, the basic mean of the response can rise or fall. If you take an individual result out of context of course you can get seemingly contradictory conclusions.

As a point of interest, consider the ‘shape’ of the period from 1970-1977 versus 1991-1999. Looks quite similar to me. However, if you calculate a running mean or a cusum of the individual data, I think you’ll find, as gc pointed out, that there is an upward trend (in the mean).

Additionally, (but I can’t find it at this instant), Akria added much more factual data concerning this year’s season in a recent post – like it started of with 2 landfall category 5 hurricanes – never heard of before. (this data doesn’t seem to be corrected for the estimated ‘strength’ of hurricanes)

Finally, it looks also that this data doesn’t include ALL tropical cyclones i.e. those occurring in the Pacific & Indian Oceans so I would caution you trying to use this data in isolation to ‘disprove’ GW or AGW.

Westcountryman · 31-10-2007, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clippo

ModernUKIP,
Some explanation of time series data:-

Any one time unit can have a value of the response way above or below it’s neighbours, but over a longer period, the basic mean of the response can rise or fall. If you take an individual result out of context of course you can get seemingly contradictory conclusions.

As a point of interest, consider the ‘shape’ of the period from 1970-1977 versus 1991-1999. Looks quite similar to me. However, if you calculate a running mean or a cusum of the individual data, I think you’ll find, as gc pointed out, that there is an upward trend (in the mean).

Additionally, (but I can’t find it at this instant), Akria added much more factual data concerning this year’s season in a recent post – like it started of with 2 landfall category 5 hurricanes – never heard of before. (this data doesn’t seem to be corrected for the estimated ‘strength’ of hurricanes)

Finally, it looks also that this data doesn’t include ALL tropical cyclones i.e. those occurring in the Pacific & Indian Oceans so I would caution you trying to use this data in isolation to ‘disprove’ GW or AGW.

Not trying to disprove anything, just stating that in the short term, there's a downward trend. I'd rather see a longer term graph.

Statistics can be used to prove anything.

gc · 31-10-2007, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ModernUKIP

Looks like it peaked in 2004 to me and we're now on a downward trend.

Have you any idea how ridiculous that comment is?

Westcountryman · 31-10-2007, 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gc

Have you any idea how ridiculous that comment is?

Yes, in the face of a downward curve it is quite ridiculous.

I'll repeat that I was referring to the short term, for your benefit.

gc · 31-10-2007, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ModernUKIP

for your benefit.

So kind....

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Posted By	For	Type	Date
Hurricane season 2007 is near the record low of 1977 « Watts Up With That?	This thread	Refback	19-11-2008 10:47 AM

30-10-2007, 05:20 PM	#2 (permalink)
gc Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 801	Your 'source' does not state what is "normal". Looks like a clear upward trend to me... "One sunny day does not a summer make..." or however the saying goes.

31-10-2007, 09:01 AM	#5 (permalink)
Clippo Uber Member Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Cheshire Posts: 2,984	ModernUKIP, Some explanation of time series data:- Any one time unit can have a value of the response way above or below it’s neighbours, but over a longer period, the basic mean of the response can rise or fall. If you take an individual result out of context of course you can get seemingly contradictory conclusions. As a point of interest, consider the ‘shape’ of the period from 1970-1977 versus 1991-1999. Looks quite similar to me. However, if you calculate a running mean or a cusum of the individual data, I think you’ll find, as gc pointed out, that there is an upward trend (in the mean). Additionally, (but I can’t find it at this instant), Akria added much more factual data concerning this year’s season in a recent post – like it started of with 2 landfall category 5 hurricanes – never heard of before. (this data doesn’t seem to be corrected for the estimated ‘strength’ of hurricanes) Finally, it looks also that this data doesn’t include ALL tropical cyclones i.e. those occurring in the Pacific & Indian Oceans so I would caution you trying to use this data in isolation to ‘disprove’ GW or AGW.