News: Sun E-Poll English Democrats on 6%

Johnny Hates Jazz · 30-04-2008, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by indigo

I'm talking about the London Party List.

Smaller parties aren't going to win constituency seats, and you can't win seats on the mayor.

Do you really think the ED's are going to get 6%? If not, what percentage is your expectation?

My guess is that the first digit will be zero.

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The base we are coming from is 1.5% in "large" elections

English Democrats have consistently polled an average of 15% in Local Elections

indigo · 30-04-2008, 01:10 PM

You're not "coming from a base". Everyone would like to think they're building on previous support, but the reality is that in any election, half the parties standing will see a decline in their votes. The total is still 100%. Everyone can't increase their percentage.

It's not like you're getting 1.5% for free, and then your work builds on that. For minor parties, with no entrenched voters, you're starting from 0 every time.

The 15% is irrelevant, because it's either a very small sample size, or was the product of focussed campaigning, which can't be repeated when many areas vote at the same time.

If you think you're going to get 3,4,5,6+ percent of the vote, you're in for a nasty shock.

Andrew Constantine · 30-04-2008, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by indigo

You're not "coming from a base". Everyone would like to think they're building on previous support, but the reality is that in any election, half the parties standing will see a decline in their votes. The total is still 100%. Everyone can't increase their percentage.

It's not like you're getting 1.5% for free, and then your work builds on that. For minor parties, with no entrenched voters, you're starting from 0 every time.

The 15% is irrelevant, because it's either a very small sample size, or was the product of focussed campaigning, which can't be repeated when many areas vote at the same time.

If you think you're going to get 3,4,5,6+ percent of the vote, you're in for a nasty shock.

Indigo

I agree and it applies as much to the Free England Party as to others. We just have to start building the base from the wards up. A long haul, but no other obvious way.

Andrew

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30-04-2008, 01:10 PM	#12 (permalink)
indigo Junior Member Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 45	You're not "coming from a base". Everyone would like to think they're building on previous support, but the reality is that in any election, half the parties standing will see a decline in their votes. The total is still 100%. Everyone can't increase their percentage. It's not like you're getting 1.5% for free, and then your work builds on that. For minor parties, with no entrenched voters, you're starting from 0 every time. The 15% is irrelevant, because it's either a very small sample size, or was the product of focussed campaigning, which can't be repeated when many areas vote at the same time. If you think you're going to get 3,4,5,6+ percent of the vote, you're in for a nasty shock.